North Carolina vs. UCLA Spread, Bets, and Picks for Sweet 16 Matchup

The Tar Heels are 2.5 point underdogs in Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup against UCLA.

Author:
Kyle Wood and Matt Ehalt
Publish date:
Mar 24, 2022

In this story:

North Carolina Tar Heels

UCLA Bruins

Men's Sweet 16: No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 8 North Carolina

It’s a battle of the blue bloods to advance in the dance.

No. 8 North Carolina is riding the momentum of having taken down No. 1 Baylor in the previous round. Meanwhile, No. 4 UCLA just pulled off a convincing win against No. 5 Saint Mary’s to advance to the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row.

The injury status of Bruins star Jaime Jaquez Jr. could play a part in how this game unfolds, but UCLA is still currently listed as the favorite.

Matt Ehalt and I each made our picks for this highly anticipated matchup.

North Carolina guard RJ Davis (4) and forward Armando Bacot (5) celebrate in the second half of a second-round game against Baylor in the NCAA college basketball tournament in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, March, 19, 2022. — Tony Gutierrez/AP

No. 8 North Carolina (26-9) vs. No. 4 UCLA (27-7)

Time: 9:39 p.m. ET | CBS
Spread: North Carolina +2.5 (-118) | UCLA -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: North Carolina (+120) | UCLA (-150)
Over/Under: Under 141.5 (-110) | Over 141.5 (-118)

North Carolina’s Path to the Sweet 16

The Tar Heels have two of the better wins in the tournament to their name. UNC eviscerated No. 9 Marquette in the round of 64 by a score of 95-63 and then turned around and beat No. 1 Baylor, 93-86, in overtime in the second round.

North Carolina controlled its first game from start to finish and led 53-25 at halftime and finished the job in the final 20 minutes of play. The same can’t be said for the Baylor game. The Tar Heels choked away a 25-point lead after Brady Manek, the team’s leading scorer in the tournament, was ejected and were incapable of not only beating the Bears’ press but also inbounding the ball for large stretches of the game. North Carolina finally put Baylor away in overtime but its game control—or lack thereof—was truly concerning.

UCLA’s Path to the Sweet 16

After making a run to the Final Four in 2021, the Bruins were nearly eliminated in the round of 64 last week. UCLA barely beat No. 13 Akron, 57-53, in the opening round. It was the lowest point total for the team all year, but it was enough to get by the Zips. The Bruins put it all together in a 72-56 win against No. 5 Saint Mary’s. But they may have lost one of their best players in a thin rotation in that game.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., the team’s second-leading scorer who had 15 points in each of the first two games of the tournament, injured his right ankle. He’s the leading rebounder and provides some size in a guard-heavy Bruins rotation and is listed as day-to-day.

Kyle Wood’s Bet: UCLA -2.5

The Bruins are a complete team and they’ve been here before. Of course, if Jaquez Jr. can’t go it’s a big hit to UCLA’s chances and puts added pressure on Tyger Campbell and Johnny Juzang to score, but I think this team can win with or without him. North Carolina's big man Armada Bacot and Brady Manek present a matchup problem for the Bruins and UNC has yet to score fewer than 93 points in the tournament. The pressure is on UCLA to score enough to keep pace with a North Carolina offense that’s found its stride over the last few weeks. Limiting second-chance points and keeping the 'Heels from getting hot outside combined with UCLA's experience and stout defense should help them shine through in a narrow victory.

Matt Ehalt’s Bet: UCLA -2.5

UCLA’s game plan should be simple: press, press and press. North Carolina reacted to Baylor’s press as if it was some mythological defense that the world had never seen before. Its best play was trying to throw it off a Baylor player.

There’s obvious concerns here with Jaquez’s status, but UCLA is the better team, played in a tougher conference and is better both offensively and defensively via KenPom. UCLA ranks 12th in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

That’s impressive.

North Carolina has played quite well in this tournament, but the Tar Heels may be playing a bit above their heads. Baylor was the weakest of the four No. 1 seeds, and Virginia Tech smoked this North Carolina squad by 13 not that long ago.

While the Tar Heels will have the size advantage in this game, I trust a battle-tested UCLA team more. Experience matters in March.

UCLA will need to do a good job of limiting North Carolina’s perimeter shooting (40% for the tournament), but the Bruins held their first two foes to 28.9% (11-38). UCLA allowed 54.5 points in the opening weekend, although UNC will be the toughest test yet.

I’ve backed UCLA the whole time—picking them to reach the Final Four—and that won’t change in a game in which I need them to win by only three points.