Friday’s March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets and Odds: Expect Underdogs to Dominate
On Friday, Sweet 16 action will tip off from Philadelphia and Chicago highlighted by three double-digit seeded teams and a Blue Blood that was assigned as an 8-seed but is playing like a 1-seed. Among the eight clubs in action is this year’s Cinderella looking to make men’s NCAA tournament history by becoming the first 15-seed to ever advance to the Elite Eight just 92 miles from their campus.
Sports bettors who have backed underdogs in the opening rounds of the tournament have experienced sizable returns on their investments.
Now, the question becomes: Does that trend continue in the Sweet 16?
In the first round, favorites went 22-10 straight-up (SU) but, more importantly, for sports bettors, underdogs posted a 17-15 ATS mark.
In the second round, favorites went 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS in thrilling action that witnessed No. 15 St. Peter’s (+325), No. 11 Michigan (+215), No. 10 Miami (+255), No. 11 Iowa State (+170) and No. 8 North Carolina (+195) pull upsets.
Favorites are ahead 33-15 SU, while underdogs are 27-21 ATS entering the Sweet 16.
Historical Trends In Sweet Sixteen:
Last five tournaments, the better/higher Seeds:
- SU: 29-11 (72.5%)
- ATS: 22-16-2 (57.9%)
Last two tournaments, the better/higher Seeds:
- SU: 11-5 SU (68.8%)
- ATS: 8-8 (50%)
Let’s dive right into the games!
Sweet 16/Elite Eight betting previews: Gonzaga-Arkansas | Villanova-Michigan | Duke-Texas Tech| Arizona-Houston| Two Bets for Thursday | Purdue-Saint Peter’s | UCLA-UNC | Miami-Iowa State | Kansas-Providence | Houston-Villanova | Arkansas-Duke | Best Bet for Saturday
Bet NCAA Tournament Lines and Futures at SI Sportsbook
Tony Gutierrez/AP
No. 8 North Carolina (26-9) vs. No. 4 UCLA (27-7)
Spread: UNC +2.5 (-118) | No. 4 UCLA -2.5 (-110)
Total: 141.5 – Over (-118) | Under 141.5 (-110)
Moneyline: UNC (+120) | UCLA (-150)
Game Info: Friday, March 25, 2022 | 9:39 p.m. ET | CBS
Site: Wells Fargo Center - Philadelphia, Penn.
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady since the opener, displaying No. 4 UCLA (18-15-1 ATS) as 2.5-point favorites over No. 8 North Carolina (18-15-1 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.
This Sweet 16 matchup of storied programs features two evenly matched foes. North Carolina, who is 8-1 SU in its last nine games, has rewarded bettors with a lucrative 7-2 ATS mark over that span. North Carolina advanced to the Sweet Sixteen after blowing out Marquette 95-63 as 3.5-point favorites and then upsetting No. 1 seed Baylor 93-86 in overtime as 5.5-point underdogs in the second round.
UCLA is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games, while bettors find an attached 6-4 ATS mark. The Bruins, who came up short against Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game, have bounced back with two straight wins in the NCAA tournament. UCLA beat Akron 57-53 but failed to cover the 13.5-point spread in the first round and then followed that up by beating St. Mary’s 72-56 as 2.5-point favorites in the second round.
Armando Bacot has recorded an astounding 27 double-doubles in 35 games this season. The star forward has been one of the best players in the tournament, averaging 16.5 points and 13 rebounds. Containing Bacot down low on the block is easily the most pivotal defensive assignment for UCLA. The Bruins will likely counter with senior big man Cody Riley, but that matchup strongly favors the Tar Heels.
Bacot leads a cast of four Tar Heels averaging in double digits, which includes a solid backcourt consisting of Caleb Love (15.3 ppg) and R.J. Davis (13.5 ppg). The dynamic pair have alternated supreme production thus far in the tournament, as Love poured in 23 points in the first-round win over Marquette, while Davis scored a game-high 30 points in the second-round upset of Baylor.
The wildcard in this game is Brady Manek, who has been sensational for Hubert Davis’ crew by averaging 27.5 points per game in the tournament thanks to hitting at a 50.0% clip from beyond the arc. Manek, who was ejected from the win over the Bears due to a questionable flagrant 2 elbow, takes North Carolina’s offense to another level when he is on the court. The senior Oklahoma transfer will be relied upon to contribute on both ends of the floor in order for the Tar Heels to advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2017.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
UCLA star guard Johnny Juzang has struggled of late from beyond the arc, hitting just 4-21 (19%) in his last eight games combined. For a player of his caliber, who is shooting 35.5% from three-point range on the season, this recent slump is concerning for Mick Cronin’s club.
The Bruins’ second-leading scorer, Jaime Jaquez (14.0 ppg, 5.7 rbg), suffered an ankle injury towards the end of UCLA’s second round win over St. Mary’s and his status for the North Carolina game remains in doubt. If Jaquez is unable to suit up, UCLA would lose arguably their most versatile player on both ends of the court.
From a betting perspective, we discover that the Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall which includes 2-0 ATS in this year’s NCAA Tournament games. On the flip side, UCLA is 7-1 ATS over the last eight NCAA Tournament games dating back to last season’s impressive deep postseason run.
My Vegas sources indicate that Jaquez will play Friday but early respected money is still backing a North Carolina squad that has beaten both Duke and Baylor in the month of March, finding value in the Tar Heels plus the points.
BET: North Carolina +3 (Buy the hook)
Frank Franklin II/AP
No. 4 Providence (27-5) vs. No. 1 Kansas (30-6)
Spread: Providence +7.5 (-118) | Kansas -7.5 (-110)
Total: 141.5 – Over (-110) | Under 141.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Providence +350 | Kansas -260
Game Info: Friday, March 25, 2022 | 7:29 p.m. ET | TBS
Site: United Center - Chicago, Ill.
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has held steady since the opener, displaying No. 1 Kansas (18-17-1 ATS) as 7.5-point favorites over No. 4 Providence (19-13 ATS) at SI Sportsbook.
If you have been following my work here at SI Betting, you are well aware that respected money in Las Vegas has profited from the disrespect by oddsmakers all season when it comes to Providence. The Friars won the Big East regular season championship for the first time in school history this season.
Providence beat South Dakota St, 66-57, in the first round as 3-point favorites and proceeded to follow that up in the second round beating Richmond, 79-51, as 3.5-point favorites. As we know, respected money faded the Friars in the first round and were burned by that investment. It is one of the few times this season (twice against Villanova as well) sharp money has arrived fading Ed Cooley’s club.
The Friars are 22-4 over their last 26 games and are anchored by the senior leadership of center Nate Watson (13.5 ppg) on the front line. Jared Bynum (41.7%) and Noah Horchler (41.0%) dominate from beyond the arc. Against Richmond, Horchler led the way with 16 points and a season-high 14 rebounds. Providence is shooting 45.5% from three-point range and 80.7% from the free-throw line. Those kinds of numbers are what bettors should be looking for when investing in underdogs of seven or more points.
The analytics of KenPom continues to believe this team is just a “mirage,” ranking 32nd in adjusted offense and 58th in adjusted defense. All the Friars continue to do is prove that real-life players play the games in March, not algorithms.
Tony Gutierrez/AP
Big 12 champion Kansas is led by the conference’s leading scorer, Ochai Agbaji (19.3 ppg). The star guard who is shooting 40.0% from deep, has surprisingly struggled to find his stroke from the outside in the first two games of the NCAA tournament, hitting just 2 of 8 (25.0%) from beyond the arc combined.
If this trend continues Friday night and Abaji is unable to fill it up from deep, it will be hard for Rock Chalk to cover this healthy point spread.
Kansas, who owns a seven-game winning streak, have rewarded bettors over that span posting a strong 5-2 ATS mark. In the tournament, the Jayhawks beat Texas Southern, 83-56, as 21.5-point favorites in the first round and then got by Creighton, 79-72, but failed to cover a 13.5-point spread in the second round.
Senior Arizona State transfer Remy Martin has been sensational off the bench for Bill Self’s squad in the NCAA tournament, averaging 17.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists. His production is easily the biggest reason why Kansas is playing in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in the last six tournaments.
The wildcard here is sophomore Jalen Wilson, who was arguably Kansas’ best player in the victory over Creighton by producing only his fifth double-double of the season with 14 points and 14 rebounds. Each time the Bluejays made a run, Wilson was there. He grabbed a game-high 10 defensive rebounds, limiting any chance for second chance points. Wilson will be depended upon to team up with David McCormack to keep Watson, Horchler and Ed Croswell from dominating the glass.
Providence has been undervalued by oddsmakers all season and respected money in Vegas has taken full advantage. Playing with ‘house money’ in regards to the Friars, they are back for more in the Sweet 16 and are grabbing the points.
BET: Providence +8 (Buy hook)
SI NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BET REVIEW
2022 March Madness: 4-7 ATS
2022 NCAA Conference Tournaments: 7-1 ATS
2021-22 Overall: 22-24 ATS
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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