March Madness Elite Eight Against the Spread Bets, Odds: Arkansas vs. Duke
No. 2 Duke and No. 4 Arkansas will face off in the West Region final Saturday.
Both teams’ tournament runs nearly ended Thursday in the Sweet 16, but the Blue Devils got by No. 3 Texas Tech and the Razorbacks knocked off No. 1 Gonzaga to set up this meeting—the fourth one between the programs and the first since 1994.
Arkansas defeated Duke, 76-72, in the 1994 national title game.
Arkansas is trying to get past the Elite Eight, where its tournament run ended a season ago. And Duke is attempting to close the book on an historic career for coach Mike Krzyzewski with a sixth title in his final season at the helm.
Matt Ehalt and I each analyzed this matchup and made our bets for Saturday.
Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 23-20–1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 19-28-1
Sweet 16/Elite 8 betting previews: Purdue-Saint Peter’s | Kansas-Providence | UCLA-UNC | Two Bets for Friday | Houston-Villanova | Best Bet for Saturday
Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook
Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
No. 2 Duke (31-6) vs. No. 4 Arkansas (28-8)
Time: 8:49 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: Arkansas +4 (-118) | Duke -4 (-110)
Moneyline: Arkansas (+150) | Duke (-188)
Over/Under: Under 146.5 (-110) | Over 146.5 (-118)
Arkansas’ Path
The Razorbacks have shown all season they can beat any team. Eric Musselman’s squad did just that once again in knocking off the perceived best team in the land, No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga, Arkansas’ second win over a top-ranked AP team this season.
The Hogs put first- and second-round scares against No. 13 Vermont and No. 12 New Mexico State behind them and beat the Bulldogs, 74-68, by keeping future lottery pick Chet Holmgren off the floor and pestering their guards. Jaylin Williams posted his third consecutive double-double, drew a few timely charges and hit a pair of threes for Arkansas. JD Notae led the team in scoring for the second game in a row and not for lack of trying—he finished with 21 points on 29 shots.
Duke’s Path
Duke just had to win that game. Fate, luck or just plain incredible shot-making down the stretch kept Coach K’s last season going for at least one more game. The Blue Devils outlasted No. 3 Texas Tech, 78-73.
Wins last weekend against No. 15 Cal State Fullerton and No. 7 Michigan State weren’t particularly impressive, but this was a gutsy win by Duke and a big game for Paolo Banchero, who scored a game-high 22 points.
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Arkansas +4
The Razorbacks have a propensity for playing close games, and they’ll surely give Duke all it can handle Saturday night. Arkansas will have to muck up the game in the same manner it did against Gonzaga to limit the Blue Devils’ No. 2 offense full of blue chippers.
If this is a low-scoring game by Duke’s standards, that’s a plus for the Razorbacks, who shouldn’t have too much trouble putting up points. Arkansas likes to run while the Blue Devils have a slower-paced approach. The Razorbacks shot the ball a whopping 72 times against Gonzaga by being active on the offensive glass and forcing turnovers.
Williams will have his hands full once again going up against talented big men in Banchero and Mark Williams. His play against the Bulldogs is a good sign for Arkansas ahead of those matchups.
Outside shooting is one of the biggest threats for the Razorbacks covering against the Blue Devils. Duke shoots close to 37% from deep, Arkansas is barely above 30. A discrepancy outside could allow the Blue Devils to pull away. And if the end of this game unfolds at the free-throw line, Duke’s go-to scorers are all capable shooters, but Arkansas actually has the edge at the stripe.
This game will be close, and I’m going with one of the best ATS teams in the tournament fresh off the biggest win of the season.
Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Arkansas +4
I believe Duke wins but Arkansas covers.
As I mentioned in why I picked Duke to cover (and win) against Texas Tech: Duke finally found its chin after falling behind by five against Michigan State. A team that's been showing a glass jaw finally showed some toughness.
Facing a tough Texas Tech team, Duke again showed toughness by actually getting pivotal spots while continuing to score. Texas Tech couldn’t slow the Blue Devils down the stretch. Jeremy Roach delivered incredible moments.
I like Arkansas to cover because I believe the Razorbacks can win this game outright. While Eric Musselman can be a tad much at times—and this is coming from someone who watches 30-plus Danny Hurley games a year—he’s a very good coach.
Arkansas was the better team against Gonzaga and had a great game plan. The Razorbacks got Chet Holmgren in foul trouble and hit some clutch shots. Arkansas also never let Gonzaga take the lead in the second half.
Jaylin Williams will need to play tough down low again against the likes of Mark Williams, but he showed he can hang in against big guys.
This will be a fascinating clash of an elite offense (Duke) against an elite defense (Arkansas). Arkansas should be able to score enough to keep up with Duke, and getting four points allows for that potential backdoor cover if the game is close.
Coach K coaches at least one more game, but the Razorbacks keep it within four points.
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