The Celtics are one win away from the NBA Finals after ripping off a pair of double-digit wins to take a 3-2 series lead against the Heat. Boston stole two games in Miami and now has the chance to end the series at home.
The oddsmakers have dubbed that the most likely outcome, installing the C’s as sizable 8.5-point home favorites. So far, this series has been dominated by blowouts. More games have been decided by 20 points than by single-digits.
One would have to think the Heat put up more of a fight in this game, especially considering they already stole a game at TD Garden.
These playoffs have been unpredictable with teams trading one-sided victories left and right, so I’ve preferred to stick with player and team props as the postseason progresses. I used the SI Sportsbook bet builder to craft a four-leg parlay for Friday night’s Game 6.
Regular-season record: 117-113-2
Play-in/playoffs record: 71-72
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Heat +8.5 (-110) | Celtics -8.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Heat (+310) | Celtics (-400)
Total: Under 201.5 (-110) | Over 201.5 (-110)
Leg 1: Celtics Over 99.5 Points
Boston has scored 100 or more points in four of five games this series. It failed to break triple digits just once in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Doing so at home should be easy enough for the Celtics in this closeout game. They are not the most high-powered offense in the league—or even remaining—but they shoot the three-pointer well and have one of the top scorers in the game in Jayson Tatum. Game 5 was an aberration from a scoring perspective. Boston will be better and so will Miami.
Leg 2: Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 Points
Adebayo has only topped this total once in this series. To no surprise, that was the lone game that Robert Williams III missed. The Celtics’ big man is a massive deterrent to the Heat center in the paint. Williams is averaging 2.5 blocks per game in the series and has done well to lock Adebayo up, helping to hold the near-20 ppg regular season scorer to 10.8 ppg when he plays. Taking Adebayo’s under is not so much doubting that he can score against Williams and Al Horford’s interior defense—he isn’t even trying to. Adebayo has taken 7.5 shots per game in games that Williams played and he took 22 and scored a playoff-high 31 in the one game he didn’t. Williams is questionable for Game 6. If he plays, Adebayo will have a rough go on offense.
Leg 3: Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 Assists
Tatum’s playmaking in the playoffs far surpassed what he did in the regular season. He’s averaging six assists per game and 5.8 in this series. Tatum had a near triple-double in Game 5, falling one dime short. He went over this total in four games in this series and has hit the over on this prop in 12 of 16 playoff games. Considering Miami will want to continue to limit Tatum’s scoring chances—his shot attempts are down this series—and he will have plenty of playmaking chances to set up open shooters.
Leg 4: Jayson Tatum Over 6.5 Rebounds
I’m staying away from Tatum’s point total props, but I’m confident he goes over on his assists and rebounds. His rebounding numbers have not been as sticky as his assist totals in the postseason. Tatum did, however, haul in 12 rebounds last game and he’s gone over this prop three times already versus Miami. Granted, there were plenty of rebounding opportunities in Game 5 given how poorly the Heat shot the ball, which is unlikely to repeat itself. But Miami destroyed Boston on the offensive glass, which should also normalize. This has been Tatum’s best rebounding series of the playoffs—I like him to keep it up in Boston.
BET: Four-Leg, Same-Game Parlay (+425)
- Celtics Over 99.5 Points
- Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 Points
- Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 Assists
- Jayson Tatum Over 6.5 Rebounds
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