Week 5 NFL Odds and Best Bets: Picks for Perfect 10 Contest
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At SI Sportsbook, bettors have the opportunity to enter into a free "Perfect 10" contest. The weekly game requires bettors to make 10 selections against the spread (ATS) for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor who picks at least six games correctly will be awarded consolation prizes in the form of free bets.
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San Francisco, who is 9-4 ATS over their last 13 games, will encounter a Panthers squad that is 1-10 SU over their 11 games. In the Perfect 10 contest, Carolina is listed as a 0.5-point home favorite; however, in live wagering, San Francisco is a 6.5-point home favorite. Take the 49ers and get off to a 1-0 start.
The Week 5 contest finds a slate filled with six of the 10 home teams listed as favorites.
Let’s take a brief look at some of the games and trends on tap for some of the games on Sunday!
The last time Jacksonville was installed as a touchdown-plus betting favorite occurred in Week 8 of the 2019 season. In Week 5, can they end an eight-game losing streak to AFC South rival Houston and cover the big spread?
Tom Brady, who is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS against Atlanta since joining Tampa Bay, will now face a Falcons club that is the only perfect 4-0 ATS team in the NFL this season. With many of their offensive weapons now healthy, bettors find the Buccaneers with only a 6.5-point spread in the Perfect 10 contest instead of the 9.5-point demand in live wagering.
The Bills, who are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS mark over their last five home games, are the NFL's biggest favorite (-14.5) this season against Pittsburgh. A deeper dive reveals that Buffalo is 5-1-1 over their last seven games when listed as double-digit favorites.
Philadelphia, the only undefeated team, will matchup against an Arizona club that has lost seven consecutive home games, both SU and ATS, at State Farm Stadium. Can they end that streak of futility in the battle of the ‘Birds?
Check the Latest Odds from SI Sportsbook
So, which games stand out as best bets? Our team here at Sports Illustrated is here to help. Let’s see who our team is backing as their best bets for the contest in Week 5.
Matt Ehalt: Vikings -5.5
It’s dangerous to wager on the Vikings, but they are definitely a touchdown (or more) better than the Bears. Minnesota got Justin Jefferson cooking against the Saints, and the Bears’ offense is a throwback to the 1920s. Chicago won’t be able to score enough to keep up in this game, and Minnesota should cruise to a 4-1 start. The only concern here is Minnesota’s defense can be porous at times, but the Bears are no threat to turn this game into a shootout.
Matt De Lima: Chargers -1.5
One issue for the Chargers to start the season has been inconsistency in establishing the ground game. L.A. ranks fourth-worst in rushing yards, but they may be at an advantage with the Browns’ defensive front likely missing both Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. Last week, the Browns allowed the Falcons to rush for 202 yards and two touchdowns. Giving the Chargers more offensive balance provides them a big advantage in this contest.
Kyle Wood: Jaguars -6.5
Jacksonville hasn’t beat Houston since Trevor Lawrence’s senior year of high school. That changes this week. The Texans are the last remaining winless team in the NFL, and the Jaguars look like a playoff team. This is the perfect get-right spot for Doug Pederson’s squad the week after a 29-21 road loss to the undefeated Eagles, which, considering Trevor Lawrence’s five turnovers, is a very respectable final score. Jacksonville will run all over Houston’s front, and Lawrence will return to the player he was the first three weeks of the season.
Bill Enright: Buccaneers -7.5
The Bucs have lost their last two, and unfortunately for the Falcons, they’re about to feel the wrath of Tom Brady backed into a corner. Atlanta knows very well what happens when Brady is put in that spot, and from what I understand, it’s very unpleasant. Tampa Bay easily covers the 7.5 and wouldn’t be surprised if they win by two touchdowns.
Craig Ellenport: Chargers -1.5
Neither of these 2-2 teams has had what you’d call a “quality win” thus far in 2022. The biggest development is that Austin Ekeler got off the mat in Week 4 and helped the Chargers’ offense return to form. Ekeler and Justin Herbert should have little trouble scoring enough points for an easy cover here. The Chargers beat the Browns 47-42 last season (Herbert passed for 398 yards and four TDs). The Chargers will not let a Jacoby Brissett-led offense score anywhere near 42 this time.
Michael Fabiano: 49ers -6.5
This could absolutely be a trap game, as the 49ers just had a huge win over the Rams on Monday night. Still, the PanthersThis could absolutely be a trap game, as the 49ers just had a huge win over the Rams on Monday night. Still, the Panthers offense is a mess, and Baker Mayfield can be pressured into turnovers. San Francisco is also 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games dating back to last season. The Panthers are also a brutal 3-15 ATS over its last 18 games under coach Matt Rhule. I hate the hook, but I’ll still bite. offense is a mess and Baker Mayfield can be pressured into turnovers. San Francisco is also 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games dating back to last season. The Panthers are also a brutal 3-15 ATS over its last 18 games under Rhule. I hate the hook, but I’ll still bite.
Connor Lamb: Browns +1.5
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will look to put the "rush" in color rush this Sunday as Cleveland rocks their all-brown alternate uniforms against a Charger team that gave up 131 yards on the ground to the Texans last week. The Browns rank first in time of possession, second in rush yards per game, and third in third-down conversion rate, which isn't reflective of a 2-2 team that would be 3-1 if Chubb opted to kneel instead of scoring a late fourth quarter TD, leaving the door open for a Jets comeback the last time Cleveland played at home in Week 2. The return of Myles Garrett and potentially Jadeveon Clowney provide a huge emotional and physical boost for the Browns D, and Cleveland controls the clock and this game on the ground to notch the outright win.
Jennifer Piacenti: Cowboys +4.5
Didn’t you hear Mike McCarthy? The Cowboys are nobody’s underdog! Let’s face it: the Rams, especially Matthew Stafford, don’t look right. The Dallas pass rush is going to give Stafford fits. The Cowboys allow an average of only 171 net passing yards per game, and they’ve already logged 15 sacks. Matthew Stafford has already taken 16. If the Rams could pivot to a powerhouse run game, I’d be less bullish on the Cowboys, but Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson strike fear into no one.
Meanwhile, on the other side of this game is the world’s greatest backup QB, Cooper Rush. I kid—sort of. Rush is undefeated in his first four starts for the Cowboys, and the Rams are allowing an average of 250 passing yards per game. He should be able to connect with CeeDee Lamb. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard provide enough of a threat to keep this Rams team busy, and the Cowboys easily cover this spread with the chance to upset the reigning Super Bowl champs on the road. Cooper Kupp can’t cover every spread all by himself.
Frankie Taddeo: Buccaneers -7.5
The Buccaneers offense is finally getting healthy. Tom Brady has never lost to the Falcons since joining Tampa Bay in 2020. In the last 10 meetings, the over has cashed eight times - so expect way more points then we saw on Thursday night football. This line has risen in Vegas around some shops to as high as -10 finding us nearly three full points of value in the contest. Lock in TB12 to make a statement to the football world on Sunday.
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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
