NFL MVP Odds Risers and Fallers
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With four weeks in the books, it’s time to check in on the NFL MVP odds at SI Sportsbook.
More often than not, a quarterback takes home this award. The last time a non-quarterback earned the honor was Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Most recently, Aaron Rodgers has taken home the award in back-to-back seasons. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady earned the honors in the previous seasons, and all four of these quarterbacks are still in the running for 2022. Will youth or experience win out? It looks like Vegas is betting on the former.
Here is where the market currently stands through four weeks of the season.
Bet on NFL MVP at SI Sportsbook
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
NFL MVP Odds
Josh Allen +300
Lamar Jackson +550
Patrick Mahomes +550
Jalen Hurts +600
Justin Herbert +1400
Aaron Rodgers +2000
Joe Burrow +2000
Matthew Stafford +2800
Tom Brady +3000
Trevor Lawrence +3300
Derek Carr +3500
Kyler Murray +3500
Russell Wilson +3500
Kirk Cousins +4000
Tua Tagovailoa +4000
Jameis Winston +7500
Matt Ryan +8000
Daniel Jones +10000
Dak Prescott +12500
Mac Jones +12500
Baker Mayfield +15000
Carson Wentz +15000
Davis Mills +15000
Justin Fields +15000
Mitch Trubisky +15000
Ryan Tannehill +15000
Zach Wilson +15000
Sam Darnold +25000
RISERS
Josh Allen leads the field at +300 odds, and he looks as good as ever, currently leading the league in completed passes (113) with 10 passing touchdowns (fourth) and two rushing touchdowns. The Bills look like a tough team to beat, and Allen is a good bet at 3-1 odds after starting the season with 7-1 odds.
Next up is Jackson and he is my favorite pick at this value (+550). Jackson has started the season with 11 passing touchdowns (tied-first) and two rushing touchdowns for a total of 13, one more than Allen. Jackson has more touchdowns than Brady and Rodgers combined, and leads all quarterbacks with 316 rushing yards. Jackson is in a contract year, and he’s putting on a show - just like Aaron Judge. I think it could work. Lamar entered the season with +2200 odds.
Mahomes should never be discounted as he continues to dazzle. No Tyreek? No problem. Mahomes can find a way. His 11 touchdowns passes are tied with Jackson and Jared Goff. His odds have gone from +750 to start the season up to +550.
Finally, the most significant riser is Jalen Hurts. Hurts has the fifth-most passing yards and the second-most rushing yards and he has led the Eagles to a 4-0 start. The Eagles are the only team remaining without a loss. Hurts has looked incredible this year with new weapon A.J. Brown and another year with Nick Sirianni. Hurts now has +600 odds after entering the year with +2500 odds.
FALLERS
Brady entered the season at 8-1 odds and he has dropped to +3000 odds after a rough start to the season. Brady finally got back on track this week versus the Chiefs by throwing three touchdown passes, but he took the loss and the Buccaneers are now 2-2. He’s been without his best weapons and had a few problems at home, so there is reason to think he can still turn the season around. If you don’t think old man time has finally gotten to TB12, grab this value now.
Rodgers has fallen to +2000 odds after entering the season with +900 odds. Rodgers is still getting wins, but it’s been ugly. I wouldn’t bet on a three-peat.
VALUE PLAYS
If you’re looking for good value, Tua Tagovailoa still has a shot to make a big impression. He currently leads the league in passer rating (109.9) and he’s second only to Hurts in yards per attempt. The Dolphins are off to a 3-1 start, and they already upset the Bills. Tagovailoa has +4000 odds to take home the award.
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