NFL Week 6 Betting Guide: Matchups, Spreads and Odds for SI Sportsbook Perfect 10

Betting analysis of the 10 games featured in the Week 6 edition of SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest.

Author:
Frankie Taddeo
Publish date:
Oct 11, 2022

In this story:

Oddsmakers continue to believe that home-field advantage is overrated. In SI Sportsbook’s Perfect 10 contest for Week 6, bettors find a card listing only five home teams as the betting favorite, the least amount we have seen this season.

SI Sportsbook’s free Perfect 10 contest requires bettors to make 10 against the spread (ATS) picks for a chance at a share of a $10,000 prize. Every bettor who chooses at least six games correctly will be awarded prizes in the form of free bets.

This week’s slate features just five games listed with point spreads of three points or less Of the four biggest favorites on the card, the Rams (-9.5) and Packers (-7.5) will play in front of their home faithful, while the Buccaneers (-7.5) are the largest road favorite in the contest against the struggling Steelers.

Simply backing home teams continues to be a toss-up for bettors through 78 games (two international games) as teams playing in front of their home faithful are just 41-36-1 (52.6%). Grabbing the points remains the lucrative way to invest as underdogs have posted a 46-30-2 ATS (60.5%) ATS mark, while betting on the under total has rewarded bettors with a 46-33-1 (58.9%) record.

Despite Monday night’s high-scoring affair between the Raiders and Chiefs, which went over the total of 51.5 in the Chiefs’ 30-29 win, the under remains a solid 11-5 (68.8%) in all nationally televised prime-time games.

Let’s take a quick look at the contest lines!

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Buccaneers (3-2; 2-3 ATS) vs. Steelers (1-4; 1-3-1 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: TB -7.5 | PIT +7.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Tom Brady takes on rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett and the Steelers in Week 6. The Buccaneers, who are 5-1 ATS over their last six road games, face a Pittsburgh squad who have been a great fade at the betting window this season. The Steelers, who are 0-3-1 ATS over their last four games, could find it hard to keep this game within the number due to possessing the league’s 30th-ranked scoring offense, averaging only 15.4 points per game.

Patriots (2-3; 2-2-1 ATS) vs. Browns (2-3; 2-3 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: NE +2.5 | CLE -2.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: No Mac Jones. No problem. The Patriots shut out one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses in Week 5 when they beat the Lions, 29-0. The Patriots, who are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, now have to prove they can be a solid investment away from Gillette Stadium. The Browns, who came up short at home against the Jets and Chargers this season, are 2-6 ATS over their last eight home games in front of the Dawg Pound.

Jets (3-2; 3-2 ATS) vs. Packers (3-2; 2-3 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: NYJ +7.5 | GB -7.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: We highlighted this last week, but it needs to be stated again. After last week’s upset win over the Dolphins, Zach Wilson is now 6-3 ATS (66.7%) over his last nine starts for the Jets. New York is 2-0 straight-up (SU) and ATS on the road this season and 4-1 ATS over their last five away from MetLife Stadium. Green Bay, who was upset, 27-22, by the Giants in London last week as 8.5-point favorites, will try to snap a two-game ATS losing skid. A deeper dive reveals that Packers have only covered the number twice over their last seven games. The hook being offered on the Jets in the contest is tempting.

Jaguars (2-3; 2-3 ATS) vs. Colts (2-2-1; 2-3 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: JAX +1.5 | IND -1.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: After being upset in Week 5 by the Texans, the Jaguars are now 3-10 ATS over their last 13 games. However, in Week 6 Jacksonville faces a division rival against whom they own a positive ROI in recent years. In the last ten meetings with the Colts, the Jaguars are 8-1-1 ATS including a 24-0 win in Week 2 as three-point underdogs. The Colts, who are 0-4 ATS in their last four against AFC South foes, are hoping star running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) can return after missing last week’s win over the Broncos. This game has witnessed a massive adjustment by oddsmakers from early wagering as the Colts were listed as seven-point home favorites back in July.

Oct 10, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) interrupts tight end Travis Kelce (87) while talking with a report after the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. — Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

49ers (3-2; 3-2 ATS) vs. Falcons (2-3; 5-0 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: SF -5.5 | ATL +5.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The 49ers’ defense has recorded 13 sacks over the last two games, which has led to financial success at the betting window. San Francisco is 10-4 ATS over its last 14 regular-season games and faces the only NFL team that is perfect against the number team. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS thanks to possessing the NFL’s third-best rushing offense (164.6 yards per game). However, in Week 6, Atlanta may find tough sledding against a San Francisco team which owns the league’s second-best rushing defense, allowing only 71.4 rushing yards per game.

Bengals (2-3; 3-2 ATS) vs. Saints (2-3; 2-3 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: CIN -1 | NO +1

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Despite losing to the Ravens in Week 5, the Bengals improved to 7-2 ATS over their last nine regular-season games dating back to last season. The Bengals are 6-1 ATS over their last seven road games and head to New Orleans to face a banged-up Saints squad which snapped a three-game losing streak when they beat the Seahawks, 39-32, as 5.5-point home favorites. The Saints’ offense received a tremendous boost with the return of Alvin Kamara, who teamed up with Taysom Hill to lead a dominant ground performance that amassed 235 yards and three rushing touchdowns.

Panthers (1-4; 1-4 ATS) vs. Rams (2-3; 1-4 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: CAR +9.5 | LAR -9.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: The Panthers, who were 1-11 SU and ATS over their last 12 games, fired head coach Matt Rhule on Monday. Carolina will likely be without quarterback Baker Mayfield (ankle) for next several games and will be hard pressed to turn things around with P.J. Walker under center. The Rams, who have struggled over recent weeks to get their offense going, should find success against a Carolina defense that has ranks among the worst surrendering 24.4 points per game. Los Angeles, who has failed to cover the spread in three home games this season, appears poised to snap its ATS futility at SoFi Stadium in Week 6.

Cardinals (2-3; 3-2 ATS) vs. Seahawks (2-3; 2-3 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: ARZ +2.5 | SEA +2.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: Geno Smith leads the NFL in completion percentage (75.2%) through five games and in Week 6 will square off against a Cardinals defense that has allowed 24.6 points per game. Seattle may need to rely even more heavily upon its passing game against Arizona after learning that starting running back Rashaad Penny (fibula) has been lost for the season. The Cardinals, who have lost their first three games at home, now head on the road, where they are 2-0 SU and ATS. Arizona, who is 6-1 ATS over its last seven games in Seattle, is banged up at the running back position. James Conner (ribs) and Darrel Williams (knee) were both forced to leave the club’s Week 5 loss to the Eagles, leaving their status uncertain for Week 6.

Bills (4-1; 3-1-1 ATS) vs. Chiefs (4-1; 2-3 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: BUF -2.5 | KC +2.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: After their convincing win over the Steelers, the Bills are now 6-1-1 over their last eight games as double-digit favorites. The Chiefs, who came from behind to beat the Raiders on Monday Night Football, fell to 2-3 ATS this season when they failed to cover the seven-point line. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-0 at home season but 0-2 ATS. After coming up short against the number against the Raiders, Mahomes is now 12-21 ATS (36.4%) as a favorite of 3.5 points or more since 2020. In the four games in which Mahomes and Josh Allen have squared off, Kansas City has emerged 3-1 SU and ATS. Get ready for the game of the year thus far in the NFL on Sunday afternoon.

Cowboys (4-1; 4-1 ATS) vs. Eagles (5-0; 3-2 ATS)

PERFECT 10 CONTEST LINE: DAL +5.5 | PHI -5.5

PERFECT 10 Breakdown: After upsetting the Rams, Cooper Rush is 4-0 filling in for Dak Prescott this season. We are still unsure if Prescott will return from his thumb surgery on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys have been a great team to back away from AT&T Stadium owning a six-game road winning streak that also finds a corresponding 6-0 ATS mark over that span. The Eagles, who are the NFL’s only undefeated team, face an NFC foe that is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three matchups in the bitter rivalry. Upon a deeper look, we uncover that the Cowboys are also 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 showdowns with the Eagles.

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.

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NFL Week 6 Betting Guide: Matchups, Spreads and Odds for SI Sportsbook Perfect 10

In this story:

Buccaneers (3-2; 2-3 ATS) vs. Steelers (1-4; 1-3-1 ATS)

Patriots (2-3; 2-2-1 ATS) vs. Browns (2-3; 2-3 ATS)

Jets (3-2; 3-2 ATS) vs. Packers (3-2; 2-3 ATS)

Jaguars (2-3; 2-3 ATS) vs. Colts (2-2-1; 2-3 ATS)

49ers (3-2; 3-2 ATS) vs. Falcons (2-3; 5-0 ATS)

Bengals (2-3; 3-2 ATS) vs. Saints (2-3; 2-3 ATS)

Panthers (1-4; 1-4 ATS) vs. Rams (2-3; 1-4 ATS)

Cardinals (2-3; 3-2 ATS) vs. Seahawks (2-3; 2-3 ATS)

Bills (4-1; 3-1-1 ATS) vs. Chiefs (4-1; 2-3 ATS)

Cowboys (4-1; 4-1 ATS) vs. Eagles (5-0; 3-2 ATS)

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