Padres-Dodgers MLB National League Division Series Betting Preview

After upsetting Mets in the Wild Card round, San Diego takes on the NL’s No. 1 seed.

Over the next few seasons, the Padres may very well have the best one/two combination of hitters in baseball with Fernando Tatis and Juan Soto. Even without Tatis in the lineup this postseason, they aspire to be the best team in baseball right now, but they will have to knock off the almighty Los Dodgers in the NL Division Series along the way. San Diego had the fifth-highest payroll ($236 million) in 2022, but their win rate on their investment isn’t at the same level as the Dodgers. Los Angeles dominated the Padres in the regular season (14-5) by outscoring them 109-47. Their best chance to take out the Dodgers will be in one-run games (L.A. went 16-15), as Los Angeles won 42 of its 111 games by five runs or more. San Diego went 43-41 over the final three months of the season compared to 64-23 by the Dodgers.

SI Sportsbook Betting Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) / San Diego Padres (+180)

Kiyoshi Mio/USA Today Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have reached the postseason for the 10th consecutive year, but they only have one World Series title over that span and two other appearances. They’ve won the NL West nine times over the past 10 seasons. Los Angeles outscored their competition by 334 runs in 2022, or 2.1 runs per game. Entering the year, the Dodgers were expected to win the World Series, and they were willing to pay for it ($275 million in 2022 – second highest).

• Mookie Betts hit .272 over 206 at-bats in the postseason with 37 runs, four home runs, 17 RBI and 14 stolen bases. His bat this season had a high level of success against the Padres (.361 with 22 runs, three home runs and six RBI over 61 at-bats).

• Compared to his regular-season resume, Clayton Kershaw has underachieved in the postseason (13-12 with a 4.19 ERA and 207 strikeouts over 189 innings). On the positive side, he went 2-0 in the 2020 World Series with a 2.31 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 11.2 innings.

• Julio Urias lost his way last year in the playoffs (seven runs, 13 baserunners and three home runs over six innings), but he is 7-3 in his career in the postseason with a 3.52 ERA and 54 strikeouts over 53.2 innings. Urias went 3-0 vs. the Padres in 2022 with a 1.50 ERA and 18 strikeouts over 24 innings.

• Freddie Freeman has been exceptional over his last 85 at-bats in the playoffs (.329 with 15 runs, seven home runs and 17 RBI). He hit .343 vs. San Diego this season over 67 at-bats with 14 runs, four home runs and 17 RBI.

• Trea Turner has struggled so far in his career in the playoffs (.228 over 167 at-bats with 19 runs, one home run, six RBI and five steals). His bat played well vs. the Padres this year (.317 over 79 at-bats with 16 runs, two home runs, 14 RBI and four stolen bases).

Pitching Stats

• 1st in MLB in ERA (2.80)
• 5th in strikeouts (1,465)
• 2nd in bullpen ERA (2.87)

Batting Stats

• 1st in runs (847)
• 5th in home runs (212)
• 9th in steals (98)
• 4th in batting average (.257)
• 1st in on-base percentage (.333)

Top Three Hitters

• ·Freddie Freeman – .325 with 117 runs, 21 home runs,100 RBI and 13 steals
• Trea Turner – .298 with 101 runs, 21 home runs, 100 RBI and 27 steals
• Mookie Betts – .269 with 117 runs, 35 home runs, 82 RBI and 12 steals

Top Three Pitchers

• Julio Urias – 17-7 with a 2.16 ERA and 166 strikeouts over 175.0 innings
• Clayton Kershaw – 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 137 strikeouts over 126.1 innings
• Tyler Anderson – 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA and 138 strikeouts over 178.2 innings

Closer

• Committee

San Diego Padres

The Padres knocked off the New York Mets two games to one in the National League Wild Card series, thanks to their best two pitchers (Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove) allowing one run over 14 innings with nine strikeouts. The top four batters in their lineup had 14 hits over 50 at-bats with six runs, three home runs and 11 RBI. Trent Grisham was the series unsung hero (4-for-8 with six runs, two home runs and three RBI).

• Over 32 games in the postseason, Manny Machado has hit .203 over 128 at-bats with 15 runs, seven home runs and 19 RBI. He batted .254 vs. the Dodgers in 2022 over 67 at-bats with four home runs and five RBI.

• Juan Soto played well in the Washington Nationals’ World Series win in 2019 (9-for-27 with six runs, three home runs and seven RBI). Over 20 games in the playoffs, he’s hit .286 with 12 runs, five home runs and 16 RBI over 77 at-bats. Unfortunately for the Padres, Soto’s bat came up empty in the regular season against Los Angeles (10-for-58 with seven runs, no home runs and three RBI) as they walked him 17 times.

• Josh Hader is 0-2 in the postseason with a 1.76 ERA, 24 strikeouts and one save over 15.1 innings. This year, he allowed one run over three innings with five strikeouts against the Dodgers. In July and August, Hader allowed 25 runs, 41 baserunners and six home runs over 15 innings with 27 strikeouts and six saves in eight chances.

• Yu Darvish has a 3-5 record in the playoffs with a 4.50 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 40 innings, but he does have five quality showings in his eight appearances (seven runs over 31.2 innings with 31 strikeouts). Darvish went 1-2 this season vs. the Dodgers with a 2.52 ERA over 25 innings with 31 strikeouts.

• Joe Musgrove’s only career start in the postseason came this year against the Mets. He picked up two losses in his three starts vs. Los Angeles with a 3.63 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 17.1 innings.

Pitching Stats

• 11th in ERA (3.57)
• 7th in strikeouts (1,451)
• 14th in bullpen ERA (3.83)

Batting Stats

• 13th in runs (705)
• 21st in home runs (153)
• 27th in steals (49)
• 16th in batting average (.241)
• 8th in on-base percentage (.318)

Top Three Hitters

• Juan Soto – .242 with 93 runs, 27 home runs, 62 RBI and 6 steals
• Manny Machado – .298 with 100 runs, 32 home runs, 102 RBI and 9 steals
• Brandon Drury – .263 with 87 runs, 28 home runs and 87 RBI

Top Three Pitchers

• Yu Darvish – 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 197 strikeouts over 194.2 innings
• Joe Musgrove – 10-7 with a 2.93 and 184 strikeouts over 181.0 innings
• Blake Snell – 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA and 171 strikeouts over 128.0 innings

Closer

• ·Josh Hader – 2-5 with 36 saves, a 5.22 ERA and 81 strikeouts over 50 innings

Betting Prediction

The Padres did well to take out the Mets, and they should take it as a progression step in their team-building process. Unfortunately for them, they don’t have enough depth in their rotation to beat the Dodgers in this matchup. I’m concerned with how Los Angeles handles the ninth inning in the postseason, as it is the weak link to their roster. Overall, the Dodgers have too many pitching and offensive weapons to lose this series. 

Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers