NFL Wild-Card Lock, Upset and Prop Advice
Heading into wild-card weekend, a major storyline surrounds the strong potential of blowouts due to the absence of Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson.
The quarterbacks’ absence has resulted in massive shifts in their respective betting lines. Both the Ravens (+9.5) and Dolphins (+13.5) are now significant road underdogs against the Bengals and Bills, respectively.
The two 1-seeds, Kansas City and Philadelphia, earned a first-round bye and will wait to see their next opponent prior to embarking on their journey to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., on Feb. 12.
Can the 49ers and Vikings, who each won 13 games in the regular season, defend their home field and advance to the NFC divisional round?
Will the Bengals and Bills roll to dominant victories against backup quarterbacks with limited NFL experience and set up arguably the best postseason matchup?
Will Dak Prescott and the Cowboys end Tom Brady’s attempt to lead the Buccaneers to their second big game appearance in the last three seasons?
Our team here at Sports Illustrated is here to provide their lock play, which underdog has the best chance to pull the upset and which proposition wager bettors should look to target.Let’s check out the predictions!
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
Michael Fabiano
LOCK: Buccaneers +2.5
As a Cowboys fan, I’m just waiting for the bubble to burst and the team to implode in the postseason. Trust me, this is what happens every year. Coming off a gross game in Washington and with Dak Prescott throwing costly interceptions on a weekly basis, I will gladly take the Buccaneers plus the points as a home underdog. Remember that Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of all time, is 7-0 vs. Dallas.
UPSET: Giants (+130)
The Vikings are a Jekyll-and-Hyde team, so I won’t be surprised if the Giants came to town and beat them outright. These teams met in Week 16 and the Vikings needed a 61-yard field goal from Greg Joseph as time expired. Daniel Jones had his way with Minnesota’s defense, throwing for 334 yards with one score. The Giants have also received solid contributions from the likes of Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins, and Minnesota has struggled against the pass all season.
PROP: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Interceptions (-188)
The juice is massive on this prop for a reason … betting on Dak to throw a pick has been free money. He’s thrown at least one interception in seven straight games, and he’s been under 0.5 interceptions in just two games. Prescott is simply making bad decisions and he’s making them on a weekly basis. This isn’t going to change because we’re in the postseason, either. I’d risk the juice and bet on a Dak pick.
Frankie Taddeo
LOCK: Tease: Bills -2 / Bengals ‘PK
I was able to ‘lock’ in this wager prior to the announcement that Tua Tagovailoa was unable to clear concussion protocol and word that Lamar Jackson (knee) would be unable to play. These prices are long gone, but this was shared on my Twitter page and was published on Sports Illustrated ahead of the line steam. Hammering two home teams with elite offenses against two road foes who will both be missing their star quarterbacks. Both of these Super Bowl contenders are as close to a ‘lock’ at these prices as you could hope to find in the NFL playoffs.
UPSET: Giants (+130)
These two teams faced off in Week 16,with Minnesota escaping with a 27-24 victory thanks to a 61-yard field goal from Greg Joseph. Despite coming up on the losing end, Daniel Jones and the Giants covered as 4.5-point road underdogs. Big Blue was one of the best road teams in the NFL, posting an outstanding 6-1 against the spread (ATS) mark away from MetLife Stadium. Although the Vikings were an impressive 8-1 in the regular season at U.S. Bank Stadium, they burned bettors only covering the number in four of those nine contest. We will grab the points in this game, but do not sleep on the Giants moving on to face 1-seed Philadelphia in the divisional round.
PROP: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes + Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Touchdown Passess (+147)
In this investment, we will combine the talents of star quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last six games as well as 11 of 16 games overall. Earlier this season, the dual-threat signal-caller threw six touchdowns in two games against the Miami defense. Meanwhile, Burrow has tossed two-plus touchdowns in four of his last five games, as well as matching Allen in 11 of 16 games. Finding a return at +147 odds on two elite players who have surpassed this projection at a 68.8% clip this season makes this wager on the best values of the weekend.
Jennifer Piacenti
LOCK: Bengals -9.5
The Bengals just beat the Ravens last week by 11 points and it doesn’t look like Lamar or Tyler Huntley will be available for this one to give them any hope. Burrow and crew are rocking an eight-game winning streak and they are not slowing down anytime soon. They got hot down the stretch last year and ended up AFC champions. They win by at least a touchdown Sunday.
UPSET: Giants (+130)
The Vikings have allowed 388.7 yards per game this year, which is second only to the Lions. They could easily be exposed by this tenacious Giants team. They almost were in Week 16 when the Vikings barely eked out a win on a last-second field goal. The Giants are healthier this time around too.
PROP: Travie Etienne Jr. Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
Since taking over the starting job in Week 8 after James Robinson was traded to the Jets, Etienne has averaged 15 carries per game. The Chargers have allowed a league-leading 5.59 yards per attempt this season, and simple math says Etienne should hit the over. In Week 3, Robinson and Etienne combined for 145 yards vs. the Chargers in a 38-10 Jaguars’ rout. I expect Doug Pederson to lean on Etienne, who has exceeded this prop in three of his last four contests.
Bill Enright
LOCK: Bills -13.5
Let’s stop with the non-sense that this spread is too big since these AFC East rivals are very familiar with each other and their games during the regular season were only decided by two and three points. The Dolphins are starting third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson against a Buffalo defense that ranked fifth in yards per pass and second in opponents’ red zone scoring percentage. In the last 62 wild-card games, the straight-up winner is 54-7-1 against the spread. Essentially, the team that wins also covers the spread, and since there’s no shot of the Dolphins winning I’m siding with the Bills in a blowout.
UPSET: Buccaneers (+120)
Let’s be real, at times the Buccaneers were downright bad in the regular season. But Tampa Bay beat Dallas 19-3 in the season opener and Tom Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys in his career, plus it’s a home game for the Bucs. I have a rule when it comes to betting on Brady—Whenever he’s getting points, GRAB ’EM. Considering the teams that win their wild-card matchup are covering the spread at nearly a 88% clip, there’s no reason to short change yourself with the +2.5 spread at even-money. I’m calling for the outright upset and riding on the moneyline.
PROP: Isaiah Hodgins Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
The Vikings were dreadful at covering wide receivers this year. In fact they gave up more yards (3,266) to receivers than any other defense. Isaiah Hodgins has emerged as the Giants’ go-to pass-catcher, which given their receiving corps isn’t saying a whole lot. Nonetheless, the guy is making plays. He had his best game of the year against the Vikings three weeks ago when he caught eight passes for 89 yards off 12 targets. Daniel Jones will look in Hodgins’s direction early and often and he’ll exceed this prop by halftime.
Craig Ellenport
LOCK: Cowboys -2.5
Believe me, I feel icky calling the Cowboys a lock. I know they lost to the Bucs in Week 1, but hear me out: Forget who’s playing in this game and focus on the fact that a 12-5 team is playing an 8-9 team. After that Week 1 win, Tampa Bay went 1-4 in its only other games against 2023 playoff teams. Dan Quinn will dial up the pressure and the Dallas defense will dominate the Bucs’ decimated o-line.
UPSET: Seahawks (+375)
That’s right, I’ll take the underdog with the best moneyline payoff. And here’s why: I don’t care how Brock Purdy has looked in winning five games. You’ve got one of the most respected defensive coaches in Pete Carroll up against a seventh-round rookie making his first NFL playoff start. The 49ers are a better team, but I can easily see this game blowing up on Purdy.
PROP: Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (-213)
Not great odds here, but there’s a reason for that. Burrow has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 11 games this season. He only had one against the Ravens last week, but he had 11 in the previous four games.
Matt De Lima
LOCK: Bills -13.5
Betting against the Bills? Not me. The Dolphins are 3-6 on the road. Miami kept it within three points in their 32-29 loss to Buffalo in Week 15 and scored a minor 21-19 upset in Week 3. Buffalo, winners of seven straight, has scored at least 32 points in three straight and I don’t see Miami keeping pace without Tua.
UPSET: Giants (+130)
The Vikings have allowed 427 points this year, tied for third-most along with the Colts and Lions. While New York isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders to take full advantage of that, they only lost to Minnesota on a missed field goal as time expired back on Christmas Eve in Week 16. This game is a virtual pick’em and should be close again, so I’ll take the plus-side of the moneyline.
PROP: Most Playoff Passing Yards: Brock Purdy (+800)
I believe the 49ers win it all and beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. With that as the template, Purdy has the extra game advantage over Patrick Mahomes. Sure, Mahomes could play one playoff game and still surpass Purdy’s four-game in passing yard total. But I’m going to assume in at least one game this postseason, the 49ers will need Purdy to step up and deliver big throws and that’ll be enough to edge out Mahomes in this prop and in Super Bowl 57.
Matt Ehalt
LOCK: Bengals -9.5
The Ravens, even if Lamar Jackson played, are cooked. Their offense hasn’t been incompetent for weeks and they now must try to beat a Bengals team that beat them by 11 points last week. The Bengals have plenty of momentum and should feed off the home crowd. Cincinnati should win this game by at least 10 points.
UPSET: Giants (+130)
The Giants nearly beat the Vikings in Minneapolis earlier this year and there’s a reason this spread is so low. I’m more confident in the Giants pulling the upset against a flawed Minnesota time than the Jaguars beating the Chargers at home. The Giants made some mistakes in the first game and should be healthier this time around. They can win this game outright.
PROP: Justin Jefferson over 91.5 receiving yards (-125)
Justin Jefferson went for 12-133-1 in the first meeting against the Giants. I’m getting him at 41 fewer yards this time around. Yes, please. The Giants, even if Adoree Jackson play, don’t have the secondary to hold Jefferson down. Minnesota should focus on getting the NFL’s best receiver the ball often and he should post a big day against the G-Men’s vulnerable secondary.
Kyle Wood
LOCK: 49ers -9.5
I don’t feel great about calling a game with such a large spread a lock. What I do feel great about, though, is the 49ers’ chances of piling up points against the Seahawks' defense and limiting their offensive output. San Francisco has been on a roll since October that was uninterrupted by the transition from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy at quarterback. What Geno Smith and Pete Carroll have done this season is nothing short of impressive, but the road ends here. The Niners roll at Levi’s Stadium, where they already beat the Seahawks by 20 in September.
Upset: Buccaneers (+120)
Call me crazy, but I’m backing Tom Brady in the playoffs. I know the Buccaneers finished with a losing record and snuck into the postseason by virtue of a dreadful division, not necessarily their own merit. And I’m fully aware that Tampa Bay finished the season with the worst record in football against the spread, so an upset win as an underdog feels unlikely. Remember, though, the Buccaneers beat the Cowboys, 19-3, all the way back in Week 1, and consider that Brady has never lost to Dallas in his lengthy career. Nothing has come easy for Tampa Bay this season and this won’t, either. Still, I’m going with the GOAT in Round 1.
PROP: Tom Brady Over 28.5 Passing Completions (-110)
Brady set an NFL record with 490 completions in the regular season on 733 attempts, also a record. Tampa Bay has the worst running game in the NFL and it abandoned it entirely, instead asking Brady to air the ball out on two-thirds of its plays, the highest rate in the league. These are enticing odds given he’s hit this figure in his last five complete games (he left Week 18 early) and 11 times overall. The Buccaneers, home underdogs against Dallas, will likely have to keep passing throughout Monday’s game and Brady will rack up completions.
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