Chiefs-Eagles Prediction: Best Bet and Picks for Super Bowl LVII
The Chiefs opened as slight favorites for Super Bowl LVII but the line flipped within minutes due to strong wagering on the Eagles.
That heavy steam moved the Eagles to 2.5-point favorites at SI Sportsbook and now sits with the Eagles laying 1.5 points. Bettors continue to wager on the NFL’s most complete team over investing in the league’s best player.
Jalen Hurts, who is 18-1 in his last 19 starts, will attempt to record a third consecutive postseason cover against the spread (ATS) while delivering the fans of Broad Street a Super Bowl victory for the second time in franchise history.
The Eagles own an eight-game winning streak with Hurts under center and have posted a profitable 5-3 ATS mark for bettors. The dual-threat signal-caller, who was forced to miss two games in Week 16 and 17 due to a shoulder injury, is favored to beat a player likely headed for league MVP honors for the second time.
Andy Reid’s club, despite being 16-3 straight-up (SU), has prevented bettors from cashing in on the club’s success due to a disappointing 6-12-1 ATS mark (33.3%).
The Chiefs are 12-1 SU over their last 13 games and offer bettors a unique situation. Besides being underdogs for the first time in Mahomes’s playoff career, bettors find Kansas City installed as underdogs for just the 10th time in his 94th start. Mahomes is 64-16 in the regular season and he owns a 7-1-1 ATS mark as an underdog. In 13 career postseason games, the NFL’s best player owns a 10-3 SU record with a corresponding 8-5 ATS mark over that span.
Heading into Super Bowl Sunday, respected money information from Vegas has helped the SI Betting community go 7-1 on side and teaser investments since Week 18! The information is up 7.4 units in the NFL playoffs, leaving us with a profit of +12.75 units on the season in NFL wagering here at Sports Illustrated.
Let’s dive into Super Bowl LVII!
Super Bowl LVII: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
Spread: Kansas City +1.5 (-110) | Philadelphia -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: KC (+105) | PHI (-125)
Total: 51 – Over (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: KC 28% | PHI 72%
Game Info: Feb. 12, 2023 | 6:30 p.m. ET | Fox
Chiefs Straight-Up Record: 16-3
Chiefs Against The Spread Record: 6-12-1
Eagles Straight-Up Record: 16-3
Eagles Against The Spread Record: 10-9
Bet on Super Bowl LVII at SI Sportsbook
Betting Insights
Philadelphia Offense vs. Kansas City Defense
- Dual-Threat Hurts vs. Chiefs
The Eagles finished the regular season with the league’s ninth-best passing attack (241.5 yards per game) and find a favorable matchup versus a Chiefs’ defense that has surrendered 39 total touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
Kansas City has stepped up defensively since Week 12 and only allowed multiple touchdown passes in three of its last nine games, including limiting Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow to just one touchdown pass in each playoff win.
Due to blowout victories over the Giants and 49ers, the Eagles have not asked Hurts to put the ball in the air in the postseason. He’s attempted 49 total passes.
Hurts has scored at least one rushing touchdown in each playoff win, while finding the end zone with his legs in seven of his last nine games. The dual-threat talent heads into Super Bowl LVII with the most rushing touchdowns (15) by any NFL quarterback in history. Overall, Hurts has scored an impressive 28 scores on the ground in 48 games. From a historical look, Hurts will be attempting to become the 11th quarterback to score a rushing touchdown in Super Bowl history.
- Gainwell Emerges In Playoffs
Second-year running back Kenneth Gainwell leads the Eagles in rushing yards in the playoffs amassing 160 yards on 26 carries. Gainwell averaged just 14.1 yards per game during the regular season, but he has taken his game to another level in the postseason by taking that average up to 80 yards per contest. Gainwell has clearly earned the trust of Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen and will likely be heavily involved against a Chiefs’ defense that has surrendered an average of 4.35 yards per rush to running backs on the year.
- A.J. Brown: Will Favorable Matchup Lead To Production?
A.J. Brown finished 13th among all wideouts with 88 receptions in the regular season, has hauled in four or less receptions in five of his last seven games (including playoffs). Hurts’ top weapon has only hauled in seven of 14 targets for a paltry 50 yards and no touchdowns in the playoffs. After averaging 81.3 receiving yards per game this season, Brown finds a matchup with a Kansas City pass defense that has allowed a league-high 35 passing touchdowns - 22 to receivers.
Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
Kansas City Offense vs. Philadelphia Defense
- Mahomes: An Underdog?
Mahomes showed heart and perseverance playing through pain and throwing for 326 yards and two touchdowns in Kansas City’s AFC championship victory.
The front-runner for the 2022 NFL MVP has been sensational in his career in the postseason, boasting a 10-3 record thanks to averaging 300.1 passing yards, 27.1 rushing yards, while throwing 32 touchdowns and adding five rushing scores.
However, despite piloting the NFL’s best passing offense at 303.7 yards per game, Mahomes is an underdog in Super Bowl LVII due to encountering a top-ranked Eagles’ pass defense allowing a paltry 179.8 passing yards per game.
- Will A Banged-Up Chiefs WR Corp Allow Eagles To Limit Kelce Production?
The Chiefs’ offense performs at a peak level when Andy Reid’s scheme heavily relies on Travis Kelce. The star tight end has been his usual playoff dominant self this postseason, hauling in 21 receptions for 176 yards and three touchdowns.
Kelce has proven to be a postseason star, averaging 86.3 receiving yards, while catching 15 touchdowns in 17 playoff games.
The pass-catching talent will encounter an Eagles’ defense that is only surrendering 4.1 receptions per game to the position. The veteran will face an unfavorable matchup against an Eagles’ pass defense that has not allowed a single tight end to surpass 68 receiving yards in any game (regular season and playoffs).
Injuries suffered by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney may limit the tandem’s production. Will a banged-up receiving unit allow Philadelphia to take away Mahomes’s top weapon in Kelce?
Super Bowl LVII Best Bet
Mahomes has been hearing all week how the Eagles are favored to win and that will serve as an extra motivating factor Sunday. Winning at a 76.9% clip in his career in the postseason, combined with a 7-1-1 ATS record as an underdog, leads us to investing in the plus-odds offered on the moneyline.
My sources here in Vegas have indicated that the betting pattern for Super Bowl LVII is very similar to what sportsbooks faced back in Super Bowl XLVIII. The Seahawks opened as two-point favorites over the Broncos, but closed as 1.5-point underdogs after a tidal wave of support in favor of Peyton Manning. Seattle emerged with a 43-8 blowout victory.
With the entire world backing a red-hot Eagles squad versus a banged-up Mahomes, sportsbooks find massive liability on Super Bowl Sunday. In this situation, it is often lucrative to align yourself with the needs of the house while being opposite the massive public steam. Simply backing this angle (which helped us win last week in the AFC championship), lands us on a 1-seed that is 12-1 SU since the start of October.
Super Bowl LVII BEST BET: Kansas City Moneyline (+105 )
Trends
- Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog
- Kansas City is 16-3 SU, but just 6-12-1 ATS this season
- The Under is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last five games
- Philadelphia is 16-3 SU, and 10-9 ATS in its 11 road games this season
- The Under is 4-0 in Philadelphia’s last four games
2022 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 45-36-1 ATS + Props +12.75 U
2021 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 33-27-1 ATS + Props +9.75 U
2021 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 Respected Money NFL at SI Betting: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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