NBA Betting Trends: Teams That Hit the Over, Under Most Often
Scoring is up across the board this NBA season.
Seven players have a scoring average of 30 points or more at the All-Star break, a feat only two players accomplished last year. And the Timberwolves, who had the highest-scoring team average a season ago at 115.9 points per game, would rank 10th this season, well behind the league-leading Kings, who score close to 120 on average.
Given this scoring boom, it’s not necessarily surprising that the over has been the more likely outcome across the Association with a 51.02% hit rate to date.
SI Betting reviewed the five teams whose games go over and under at the highest rate in the NBA to help inform your bets in the second half of the season.
(Over/under records via TeamRankings.)
Top 5 Teams To Bet The Over
Over/Under Record: 35–21–2
The Warriors lead the NBA in pace and three-pointers made per game (16.6) this season. Their No. 12 offensive rating isn’t as good as what we’ve come to expect, but they’re still second in scoring (118.6). Golden State’s defense is also not what it once was as it allows the fourth-most points per game (118.5).
The expectation when the Dubs take the court is a shootout and that’s usually what ensues. However, there’s a drastic difference between the hit rate for the over when the Warriors are at home compared to their road games. The over is 21–6–1 on the road, tops in the league by a longshot, and 13–15–1 at home, the seventh-lowest percentage in the league. (The over also hit in a neutral site game.) Golden State’s pace and offensive rating don’t vary all that much from its games at the Chase Center to its away games but its defensive rating improves from No. 27 on the road to No. 5 at home.
Bill Streicher / USA TODAY Sports
Over/Under Record: 33–23–1
The 76ers’ scoring average (114.4) is about league average, they have the third-best defense by points allowed (110.5) and they run at the fifth-slowest pace in the league. Still, the over hits more often than not for Philadelphia and, unlike Golden State, that’s the case both at home and on the road. The over is 18–12–1 at Wells Fargo Center and 15–11 in away games. The under is 6–2 when the Sixers play on no rest this season, the third-highest under hit rate in that scenario.
Over/Under Record: 33–24
The Thunder operate at the third-fastest pace, score the third-most points per game (117.9) and allow the 11th-most points per game (116.2), all of which contribute to their near-60% over hit rate. The over is 18–11 for OKC at Paycom Center and 15–13 on the road. The sample sizes are not the same, but the over is 25–16 when Oklahoma City is an underdog and 9–8 when it is favored.
Over/Under Record: 33-24–2
The Spurs don’t score a whole lot of points. They rank 24th in scoring (112.4), but the reason their games hit the over at such a high rate is because their defense allows the highest average to opponents in the league by nearly three points per game (122.6). And it helps that even though San Antonio’s offense isn’t necessarily efficient, it gets up and down the court at the seventh-fastest pace. There’s little difference between the frequency of overs for the Spurs at AT&T Center, where the over is 16–12, and on the road, where it is 16–11–2. (The over is 1–1 in their neutral site games.)
Over/Under Record: 34–25
It’s somewhat surprising to see the Raptors near the top of this list. They rank 25th in pace, 19th in scoring (113.3) and 11th in points allowed (112.5). Still, Toronto games have seen more points scored this season than oddsmakers have expected, regardless of the venue. The over is 17–14 at Scotiabank Arena and 17–11 in road games.
Top 5 Teams To Bet The Under
Over/Under Record: 25–34
The Bulls, who hit the fewest three-pointers per game in the NBA (10.3), are just about league average—or worse—in the other relevant categories for this exercise. They’re 20th in scoring average (113.1), 15th in points allowed (113.4) and 13th in pace. Chicago’s offense isn’t good enough and its defense isn’t bad enough to send games over more often. The under is 18–11 for the Bulls at the United Center, 15–14 on the road and 1–0 at neutral sites.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
Over/Under Record: 27–34
The Clippers are a curious case. At home, the under is 22–6, a near-80% hit rate, first in the league and it’s not close. And on the road, the over is 21–12, the second-highest percentage in the league behind only the Warriors. Their pace is a bit faster on the road, but not by all that much. The reason for this drastic difference is that the offense rating for Los Angeles in home games is 28th and its defensive rating is third and on the road those numbers are nearly inverted: Fourth in offensive rating and 18th in defensive rating. Those polar opposite splits are an interesting note for a team that’s bottom five in scoring average (111.4) and top five in points allowed (111.1).
Over/Under Record: 25–30–2
The Grizzlies rank just inside the top 10 in points per game (116.1) and run the floor at the sixth-fastest pace in the league, though their defense allows the eighth-lowest scoring average (112.2). On the road, the under is 16–12 for Memphis and at FedEx Forum it’s 14–13–2. The slight uptick in scoring at home can partially be attributed to the bump from No. 22 in offensive rating on the road to No. 8 at home. Their defense also improves from No. 7 to No. 1, but that leap isn’t as drastic. The over is 14–9–1 when Memphis is up against Eastern Conference opponents while the under is 11–21–1 versus teams from the West.
Over/Under Record: 27–32
The Heat certainly fit the mold of a team whose games go under at a high rate. They’re last in the league in scoring (108.3), second in points allowed (108.3) and rank 28th in pace. The under is 15–14 at home, 16–13 on the road and 1–0 at neutral sites. There’s not a major difference in offensive production for Miami regardless of the arena, but its defensive rating improves from No. 13 at home to No. 3 in away games, which might explain the slightly higher under rate in games outside of South Florida.
Over/Under Record: 28–33
The Cavaliers have a strikingly similar profile to the Heat. They rank 26th in scoring (111.8), first in points allowed (106.1) and dead last in pace. As such, their over/under mark is on par with Miami’s. At Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, the under is 16–15 and on the road it hits even more often with a record of 17–13. The Cavs also have the highest under rate in the league on games with no rest: 8–2.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call the National Council for Problem Gambling 1-800-522-4700.
