2023 NFL Draft Odds: Best Bets and Predictions for the First, Second and Third Picks
The NFL combine is complete, Pro Days are wrapped up and there's already been a trade for the first overall pick.
With the draft less than four weeks from now, odds-on favorites have emerged for each of the first three picks. Betting odds indicate a likely outcome for the first, second and third selections, but nothing will truly be finalized until April 27.
So based on what we know about each prospect and the teams picking at or near the top of the draft, how will the selections unfold in Kansas City? Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds for the first three picks and see what the information that’s trickled out so far says about how the draft might play out.
2023 NFL Draft: Odds for the No. 1 Pick
C.J. Stroud -333
Bryce Young +225
Anthony Richardson +700
Will Levis +3300
The Panthers have been on the clock since March 10 when they sent a haul to the Bears in exchange for the first overall pick. There’s been reports that Carolina moved up without a specific signal-caller in mind and even that the franchise could move back in the draft after it sent D.J. Moore and heaps of draft capital to Chicago.
Through it all, the quarterback who has been most consistently mocked to the Panthers is Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, though Alabama’s Bryce Young and Florida product Anthony Richardson seem to still be in play, albeit at longer odds.
Richardson’s odds to go No. 1 shortened substantially in late February as draft analysts became enamored with his athleticism and upside. Young was the favorite to go No. 1 when the Bears still owned the first pick, but Stroud jumped him once Carolina moved up.
John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports
Stroud could be the building block for Frank Reich, the new head coach for the Panthers. At 6’3”, 214 lbs, he doesn’t have the same size concerns as Young and he showed significantly more polish than Richardson across two seasons as a starter for the Buckeyes. There’s also the matter of Carolina quarterbacks coach Josh McCown telling Stroud at his Pro Day that the two would meet up at a basketball court in Charlotte once Stroud lives there. However, according to a report from mid-March, Reich favors Stroud while owner David Tepper would rather the team select Young.
2023 NFL Draft: Odds for the No. 2 Pick
Bryce Young -333
C.J. Stroud +300
Will Levis +1200
Anthony Richardson +1600
If Stroud indeed goes first to the Panthers, Young seemingly becomes a shoe-in for the Texans at No. 2. Young, who won the Heisman Trophy in 2021, was viewed by many as the top quarterback in the class heading into the draft process and he was the first quarterback off the board to Houston at No. 2 in SI’s mid-February mock draft (he’s still second in the latest mock, just after Stroud.)
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans recently said he doesn’t see an issue with Young’s size. “The guy has done it at the highest level in college football and size hasn't seemed to be a problem,” the recently hired Houston coach said. At the NFL combine, Young measured in at 5'10”, 204 lbs — his size will make him a statistical outlier in the history of the draft.
Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal/ USA TODAY NETWORK
Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis have not been tied to the Texans all that much, which explains their longshot odds to be the No. 2 pick. It seems it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Houston picks either Young or Stroud, but their selection ultimately hinges on what Carolina does at No. 1.
2023 NFL Draft: Odds for the No. 3 Pick
Anthony Richardson -111
Will Anderson Jr. +225
Will Levis +300
Bryce Young +1500
Tyree Wilson +2200
Jalen Carter +2500
C.J. Stroud +2800
The third pick is a wild card. The Cardinals could stand pat and draft a foundational defensive player or trade back with a team in search of a quarterback and recoup some draft capital. The list of teams interested in moving up could include the Colts at No. 4, the Raiders at No. 7, the Falcons at No. 8 and the Titans at No. 11 could reportedly be in play as well. That’s what makes this particular selection so difficult to project.
Richardson is the odds-on favorite to come off the board in this slot. Arizona, which recently signed quarterback Kyler Murray to a massive extension, might be better off trading the pick to a team that has its sights set on the dual-threat out of Gainesville. But Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. — the No. 1 player on SI’s big board — and Levis are not all that far behind Richardson in the betting markets.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler recently reported that several teams believe the Colts’ pick at No. 4 will be Levis, which throws some water on the idea of an Indianapolis trade up to No. 3. That doesn’t preclude another team from moving up for Richardson, who has visits scheduled with Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tennessee, in addition to the Panthers and Colts. But if a trade doesn’t come to fruition, Anderson offers great value at plus-money for a franchise in need of a defensive anchor.
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