NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Preview: Bucks, Celtics Lead the Field

Milwaukee is the favorite to emerge from the East, but Boston and Philadelphia could also represent the conference in the NBA Finals.

The East was home to the three teams with the best records this season and two of those teams have the shortest odds to win the title in June.

Though the conference may not be as deep as the West, where the Suns are the No. 4 seed and the Lakers are No. 7, the top-end talent is the best in the NBA, with the Bucks and Celtics a cut above the rest in the betting markets.

Milwaukee and Boston are the last two teams to represent the East in the NBA Finals and those two teams have the best odds to make it back there this season, though the 76ers could have something to say about that, and the Cavaliers are lurking in the distance as well.

Before the playoffs officially tip off Saturday, get a complete breakdown of the Eastern Conference competitors, including each team’s odds, record and opponent.

(The No. 8 seed is not included in this article because it has yet to be decided. The winner of Wednesday’s Bulls-Raptors game will play the Heat on Friday and the winner of that game will play the No. 1 Bucks.)

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No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks

Overall record: 58–24
Record since All-Star break: 17–7
Odds to win conference: +110 (Best)
Odds to win NBA title: +250 (Best)
First-round opponent: Heat/Raptors/Bulls

The Bucks were not at full strength for much of the season. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed 19 games, Jrue Holiday was absent for 15 and Khris Middleton was out for 49. Nevertheless, they captured the best record in basketball for the first time in three years and at one point won 16 games in a row.

Milwaukee’s fourth-ranked defense is at the forefront of its success and Brook Lopez in particular was a key cog on that side of the ball. The Bucks commit very few fouls (18 per game) and dominate the glass (+4.4 rebounding differential). They also bolstered their wing depth by bringing in Joe Ingles and Jae Crowder, two players with ample playoff experience, and they signed veteran Goran Dragic in March.

Antetokounmpo shouldered a larger load on offense this season than ever before. His league-high 38.8% usage rate resulted in his first time averaging more than 30 points per game. Coach Mike Budenholzer assembled a bevy of sound shooters around the two-time MVP. Milwaukee’s 14.8 made threes per game are fourth-most in the NBA and they shoot a 36.8% clip from outside. Holiday also posted the second-highest scoring average of his career (19.3 points per game) and Lopez had his best scoring season (15.9 points per game) since 2016-17, his last year with the Nets.

Home-court advantage throughout the playoffs will serve the Bucks well as they finished 32–9 at Fiserv Forum. Betting on Milwaukee doesn’t offer much value at this point, though, as its odds to win the East are almost even and its title odds are by far the shortest in the field.

No. 2 Boston Celtics

Overall record: 57–25
Record since All-Star break: 15–8
Odds to win conference: +160 (2nd-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +300 (2nd-best)
First-round opponent: Hawks — won season series, 3–0

The Celtics followed up their breakthrough NBA Finals run last season by winning a ho-hum 57 games. They finished second in defensive rating, second in offensive rating and first in net rating. On paper, this team is even better than the one that held a 2–1 lead over the Warriors last June.

FiveThirtyEight gives Boston a 22% chance to win the title, the best odds of any team. That same model gave last year’s team a whopping 31% chance to do so.

The biggest changes to the Celtics are at coach and sixth man. Joe Mazzulla took over for Ime Udoka before the season began and helped guide the franchise to its best regular season in more than a decade. And Brad Stevens acquired Malcolm Brogdon in the offseason, a steadying force to lead the second unit.

Defense remains a strength, even though Marcus Smart did not play up to his status as reigning Defensive Player of the Year and Robert Williams III missed more than half the season. The biggest improvement came on offense, which begins with the play of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both of whom enjoyed career years. Tatum bumped his scoring average to 30.1 points per game while Brown upped his to 26.6. And the C’s also saw a marked jump in their outside shooting to 37.7% and 16 made threes per game.

Boston is deep and this version of the roster now has experience on the game’s biggest stage. Still, its path back to the Finals may have to go through Milwaukee. The Celtics got past the Bucks last season, though it took a Game 7 at home to do so, a luxury they won’t have this time around. Their run begins against the Hawks, a team they handled in the regular season and are heavily favored to dispatch quickly.

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers

Overall record: 54–28
Record since All-Star break: 16–9
Odds to win conference: +450 (3rd-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +900 (5th-best)
First-round opponent: Nets — won season series, 4–0

Joel Embiid powered Philadelphia to its best season since 2000-01 and in the process may have secured his first MVP award. He led the league in scoring for the second year in a row (33.1 points per game) and the team coalesced around him as the 76ers finished third in offensive rating, eighth in defensive rating and third in net rating in James Harden’s first full season with the team.

Injuries held Harden out at times, but he still put together the second-best outside shooting campaign of his career (38.5%) and led the league in assists (10.7) for the second time. Tyrese Maxey emerged as a 20-points-per-game scorer in Year 3 and additions like P.J. Tucker, De’Anthony Melton and Jalen McDaniels helped round out the roster.

Philly led the league in three-point percentage (38.7) and free-throw percentage (83.5) and did well to limit its turnovers, too. The Sixers somewhat surprisingly were in the bottom half of the league in rebounding percentage, which could pose an issue against bigger Eastern Conference opponents. After Embiid (10.7), Harden is the team’s top rebounder (6.1).

Playing fellow top teams was not an issue for Doc Rivers’s squad, as it went 30–18 against teams with .500 or better records. Philadelphia split its season series with Milwaukee, 2–2, though it did lose to Boston three times in four meetings.

Over the 76ers’ last five postseason appearances, they have not advanced past the second round. Those playoff struggles are well documented, but this year’s team could be the one that breaks that streak.

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

Overall record: 51–31
Record since All-Star break: 13–8
Odds to win conference: +1400 (4th-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +4000 (10th-best)
First-round opponent: Knicks — lost season series, 1–3

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Cleveland presents an interesting value proposition as its odds to win the East are more than three times as long as that of Philadelphia, which finished three games ahead in the standings. The Cavaliers, who rank eighth in offensive rating, first in defensive rating and second in net rating, are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2018.

The offseason trade that brought Donovan Mitchell to northeast Ohio helped spur the seven-win improvement that was the difference between a play-in tournament exit and having home-court advantage for the first round.

Mitchell enjoyed the best offensive campaign of his career (28.3 points per game on 48.4% shooting, including a career-high and franchise-record 71-point outburst) playing alongside Darius Garland, who had less pressure to score than in previous years. This offense operates at the slowest pace in the league, ranks top 10 in effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage and rarely turns the ball over.

The frontcourt duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen spearheaded Cleveland’s stout defense, which allowed the second-fewest made threes to opponents (11.3) and the third-fewest points in the paint (46.3). The Cavaliers allowed the fewest points per game in the NBA (106.9). To put that into context, the difference between first and second by that metric was about the same as the difference between second and 10th.

Depth is a point of concern for this team, which ranks third-to-last in bench points. The first-round draw against New York is no cakewalk, though Cleveland is still favored to win.

No. 5 New York Knicks

Overall record: 47–35
Record since All-Star break: 14–8
Odds to win conference: +5000 (5th-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +10000 (12th-best)
First-round opponent: Cavaliers — won season series, 3–1

The Knicks are back in the playoffs, though they may be without Julius Randle when they take the floor Saturday in Cleveland. The team’s top scorer (25.1 points per game) sprained his ankle a few weeks ago and he hasn’t played since March 29. That means the pressure is on offseason acquisition Jalen Brunson after he spurred a resurgent season in New York.

After a breakout playoff run with the Mavericks, Brunson was the Knicks’ big-money free agent signing, a deal that ended up working wonders. He had a career year playing under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden and posted career-best averages in points (24) and assists (6.2). Brunson also helped Randle regain his All-Star form and piloted the league’s No. 4 offense.

Defense is typically the hallmark of a Tom Thibodeau-coached team, but New York finished 19th in that regard. Instead, the duo of Brunson and Randle, backed by R.J. Barrett (19.6 points per game), Sixth Man of the Year candidate Immanuel Quickley (14.9 points per game) and midseason trade acquisition Josh Hart (10.2 points per game) comprise one of the NBA’s most efficient offenses.

If Randle is forced to miss time in the postseason, Obi Toppin has filled in well at power forward so far. In five starts, Toppin has averaged 21.8 points per game (up from his season average of 7.4) on 44% shooting from deep. The Cavaliers and Knicks met just two weeks ago without Randle and Brunson delivered 48 points and nine dimes in a road win to take the season series.

No. 6 Brooklyn Nets

Overall record: 45–37
Record since All-Star break: 11–13
Odds to win conference: +25000 (T-8th-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +50000 (T-18th-best)
First-round opponent: 76ers — lost season series, 0–4

The Nets did not completely crater after they traded away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, marking the end of their failed superteam. The players recouped in both deals helped Brooklyn to a 13–15 record since KD was sent to the Suns on Feb. 9. There’s no award for going two games under .500 over a two-month stretch, but that mark was just good enough to hold off the Heat for the final guaranteed playoff spot.

Mikal Bridges, a career 13.1 points-per-game scorer, has essentially doubled that average through 27 games with his new team. He’s been good for 26.1 points per game with the Nets, and he’s crossed the 40-point threshold three times, something he never did in Phoenix. Spencer Dinwiddie, in his second stint in Brooklyn, is setting the table well with 9.1 assists to pair with 16.1 points. Cameron Johnson, one of the team’s many lengthy wings, has also enjoyed a scoring bump up to 16.6 points per game.

Center Nic Claxton is the only starter who was on the team when the season began. Even the coach is different from opening night as Jacque Vaughn took over for Steve Nash following a 2–5 start.

Since the All-Star break, the Nets rank 24th in offensive rating, 13th in defensive rating and 19th in net rating. They are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with a -4.6 differential on the glass for the season. Brooklyn does block the most shots per game in the NBA (6.2, 2.5 of which are credited to Claxton) and shoots 37.8% from three, fifth-best.

The odds are against the Nets putting up much of a fight in their series with the 76ers, who swept them in the regular season. It’s hard to put much stock into that record, though. These teams only met once with their current rosters in place and starters active, a game Philadelphia won by three.

No. 7 Atlanta Hawks

Overall record: 41–41
Record since All-Star break: 12–11
Odds to win conference: +10000 (T-6th-best)
Odds to win NBA title: +15000 (13th-best)
First-round opponent: Celtics — lost season series, 3–0

After a rumor about Trae Young’s future in Atlanta emerged earlier this week, the Hawks stunned the Heat on the road to secure the seventh seed, marking their second season in a row that they made the playoffs via the play-in game. If that version of the team shows up in the playoffs, they’ll be a tough out. But the 82-game sample size indicates that the showing in Miami was more of an outlier rather than a sign of things to come.

Even after the front office sent a haul to the Spurs to pair Dejounte Murray with Young in the backcourt, Atlanta still finished .500, its worst record since 2019-20, and endured a midseason coaching change from Nate McMillan to Quin Snyder.

The Hawks rank seventh in offense rating but just 22nd in defensive rating and 19th in net. The duo of Young and Murray and the cast of wings assembled around them — De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanović, Saddiq Bey — can run with the best units in the NBA, but they aren’t coming up with many stops on the other end.

Atlanta averages the third-most points per game in the league (118.4) and gets up and down the floor at the sixth-fastest pace. The only problem is, its first-round draw, the Celtics, are one of the few teams that are even more efficient than the Hawks on offense and Boston has the defense to back it up as well.

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