NFL Draft Odds Favorite for Top 10 Picks and What It Means 

Malik Nabers.
Malik Nabers. / Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports

Betting markets have been moving wildly around the NFL draft over the past week, but Thursday night we finally put to rest speculation and get back to reality when the first round gets underway. 

The Chicago Bears have the first pick and it seems everyone knows they’re taking USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Even the betting market has made that pick unbetable with the odds so astronomical you’d have to wager $30,000 just to win $100. 

While there was some big movement around the No. 2 pick earlier this week, it seems the betting market has settled on a big favorite there too. What happens after that remains a mystery, as the odds indicate. 

Below we examine the betting favorite for each of the Top 10 picks in the draft and what the odds mean for fans looking for insights. All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. 

No. 1 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Caleb Williams -30000

The Bears have been coy about who they intend to select No. 1, but it doesn’t appear anyone is buying what they're selling. It seems certain they will pick Williams. 

No. 2 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Jayden Daniels -950 

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels has been the outright betting favorite to go No. 2 for some time now. This past weekend, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy saw their odds of going No. 2 improve, but Daniels's odds have gone down to where they are now. He is the overwhelming favorite to be selected by the Washington Commanders. 

No. 3 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Drake Maye -290 

This is where things get interesting. The New England Patriots hold this pick and need a quarterback. UNC QB Maye seems to be the consensus top QB available after Williams and Daniels. There is talk of New England trading back, but whether the Patriots make the pick themselves or trade this pick to another QB-needy team, Maye is the outright favorite to be off the board here for a reason. McCarthy is behind him with +250 odds to be the No. 3 pick. 

No. 4 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Marvin Harrison Jr. -370 

The Arizona Cardinals have the No. 4 pick and need a wide receiver. Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. was once viewed as a potential No. 1 overall pick but has been usurped by the quarterbacks. Maye and McCarthy are behind him in the odds to be the No. 4 pick at +650 each. It does seem this is where Harrison gets picked.

No. 5 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: J.J. McCarthy +280 

The Los Angeles Chargers currently hold this pick. While new head coach Jim Harbaugh loves McCarthy following their time together at Michigan, it seems unfathomable the Chargers would draft McCarthy with Justin Herbert on the roster. No, McCarthy’s odds indicate a team will move up and pick him here. Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham is second in the odds at +320, which would likely mean the Chargers, who need OL help, would pick him here. Then it’s Malik Nabers (+400) and Joe Alt (+400) after that. Plus odds for all of them mean if you pick correctly you get a good payout, but also it does seem to be a guessing game with the favored outcome being a trade and McCarthy being selected.

No. 6 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Malik Nabers +170 

Two wide receivers headline the betting odds here with LSU stud Nabers in front of Washington WR Rome Odunze (+250). The New York Giants have this pick currently and are in desperate need of a star wide receiver, so that makes sense. There have also been rumors about the Giants picking a QB in this draft, and McCarthy is +550 to be picked sixth. Based on the above, it’s unlikely McCarthy is available at this pick and it seems the oddsmakers are split on which wide receiver will come off the board. 

No. 7 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Joe Alt -195 

There’s been a lot of buzz about offensive linemen getting picked early and often during the first round of this year’s draft, so it makes sense to see Notre Dame tackle Alt as the outright betting favorite here. The Tennessee Titans have this pick and need OL help. That’s likely why Latham is the second betting favorite at +500. It doesn’t seem likely any QB will be available here, so the Titans can’t leverage the pick for more draft capital and thus will pick the best OL available. Alt has long been considered that. 

No. 8 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Dallas Turner +170 

The Atlanta Falcons are currently slated to pick eighth with a clear need at pass rush. Alabama pass rusher Turner came into the draft process as the clear alpha. UCLA edge Laiatu Latu closed that gap with an impressive NFL Draft Combine performance. Latu is the second betting favorite at +200 odds, so not much of a gap there. Texas DT Byron Murphy is third at +700. Either way, defensive line/pass rush is the consensus for Atlanta, though one betting insider picked the Falcons to select a wide receiver at +800 odds.

No. 9 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Byron Murphy +170 

Murphy put together an outstanding Draft Combine performance and vaulted up draft boards into the top 10. The Bears have this pick and need defensive line help, so Murphy being the favorite is not a surprise. What’s interesting is behind him in the odds is Odunze at +410 and offensive lineman Olu Fashanu at +430. Those are all positions of need for Chicago, so the odds say they’ll stick here and make a pick. Do they try to bolster their offense for Williams or build on defense, where they have more holes? That seems to be the lingering question. 

No. 10 Pick NFL Draft Odds Favorite: Brock Bowers +210 

The New York Jets are currently set to pick No. 10 and Georiga tight end Brock Bowers fills a need for them. Aaron Rodgers loves throwing to big tight ends in the red zone and Bowers would be a massive upgrade over the Jets' current TE1 Tyler Conklin. Odunze is second in the odds at +750, but based on earlier odds it doesn’t appear likely he will be available at this pick. Plus the Jets have more WR talent than TE. It is interesting his odds are so high considering how good a fit he would be with the Jets. But this just proves even oddsmakers are guessing a bit with NFL draft predictions. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.


Published
Brian Giuffra

BRIAN GIUFFRA

Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.