NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds and Picks

Brian Giuffra | Apr 29, 2024

Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman. / Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL draft is behind us, which means most team’s rosters are set for the upcoming season and we can start betting on NFL futures with more confidence. 

Unlike the NFL MVP, which has basically become a QB-on-the-best-team award, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year offers value on position players, with seven-of-the-last-10 winners being a non-quarterback. 

The Defensive Rookie of the Year award is easier to forecast, with either a pass rusher or cornerback winning the award ever year since 2013. 

So who will win this year? 

Let’s start with the odds, which all come from FanDuel Sportsbook. 

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds 

Caleb Williams +210 

Marvin Harrison Jr. +600 

Jayden Daniels +900

J.J. McCarthy +1000

Malik Nabers +1400

Drake Maye +1500

Xavier Morthy +1600 

Keon Coleman +2500

Rome Odunze +2500 

Brian Thomas Jr. +2500 

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds 

Dallas Turner +500

Laiatu Latu +650

Jared Verse +1000

Quinyon Mitchell +1100

Terrion Arnold +1100

Byron Murphy +1200 

Chop Robinson +1600

Payton Wilson +2500 

Cooper DeJean +2500

Nate Wiggins +2500

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick

You may jump on Caleb Williams as the no-brainer ROY favorite and I understand why. Loaded offense, No. 1 pick hype, an opportunity to quickly turn things around for a major franchise that hasn’t won in forever. All makes sense, but don’t forget what I mentioned before about 70% of ROY winners being non-QBs over the last decade. 

Plus +210 odds aren’t exactly exciting. 

Instead, let’s consider Bills rookie Keon Coleman at +2500 odds as someone to target. 

Josh Allen has thrown for over 4,200 yards each of the last four seasons and averaged 34.25 TDs per season during that time. The Bills lost their top two WRs this offseason and currently list Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir atop the WR depth chart. Point is, Coleman should start and will get plenty of opportunities to shine. 

Coleman is 6-3 and 215 pounds. He caught 11 TDs and averaged 13.2 yards per catch with Florida State last year. What also excites me is he was first-team All-ACC as a punt returner, showcasing a shifty ability that should serve him well at the next level. 

He should slot into the role of Gabe Davis, who left the Bills in free agency, as the Bills’ primary deep-threat player and red-zone target. Davis caught seven TDs in three of four seasons with Buffalo and I anticipate Coleman having similar production. 

As his odds indicate, this is a bit of a longshot. But this offense throws a ton and will need Coleman to be a big part of that right away for them to succeed. As long as Allen’s his quarterback, Coleman will get plenty of opportunities. 

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Pick

To win the DPOY award you have to start immediately at a position of value and produce. That’s why cornerbacks and pass rushers have won this award for the last decade. That should be your primary thought process when handicapping this. 

Alabama stud Dallas Turner is the favorite for a reason. Barring injury, he will start immediately for the Vikings and be the primary pass rusher on a defense known for producing sacks, which is Turner’s specialty. 

Turner had 11 sacks and two forced fumbles last season and finished with 23.5 sacks in his college career. He put on a show at the NFL Combine, running a 4.46 40-yard dash, a 40.5” vertical jump, and a 10’7“ broad jump. Combine that with his power and you have the makings of a dominant pass rusher in Week 1. 

Another player to consider is Jared Verse. He was drafted by the Rams in the first round and should start right away. The 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Aaron Donald just retired, but the Rams still have plenty of other pass rushers who opposing offenses will have to focus on, thus leaving Verse in more one-on-one situations.

Verse has that rare combination of size (6-4, 254) and speed (4.58 40) that typically translates to production at the NFL level. Combined with the coaching staff clearly understanding how to scheme players into position to make plays, he’s my top pick to win, though only slightly above Turner.  

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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