2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player Odds: Dylan Harper Favored; Brandon Miller, Payton Pritchard in Contention

The NBA’s Most Improved Player award is one of the toughest honors to predict, as it usually goes to players that had a breakout season that was unexpected. So, even if you’re favored to win the award entering the campaign, there’s no guarantee that you’ll even end up in the conversation.

Just ask Houston's Amen Thompson how his MIP campaign went in the 2025-26 season.

Every team wants to have a player in the conversation for the MIP award, as it’s a sign that they struck gold with a rotation spot. And, it often leads to a player making an All-Star appearance.

Since the 2019-20 season, all but two winners of the MIP (Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Ja Morant, Lauri Markkanen, Tyrese Maxey) all earned their first All-Star berth the season they won this award.

The last two seasons, Atlanta Hawks guards Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker both won this award without making an All-Star team, but Daniels nearly won the Defensive Player of the Year in the 2024-25 season while Alexander-Walker made a massive leap in his first season in Atlanta.

Alexander-Walker is the epitome of what this honor is all about. A key bench player during his time in Minnesota, the former first-round pick received a bigger role in Atlanta and thrived in it, averaging a career-high 20.8 points per game while shooting 39.9 percent from 3. He helped Atlanta earn the No. 6 seed in the East and should have a major role for the team going forward.

This season, San Antonio Spurs guard Dylan Harper is the favorite to win the Most Improved Player award, even though he’s in just his second season. For those looking to predict – or bet – on this award market: BEWARE.

There are many voters who avoid voting for second-year players since they should be improving, especially a player like Harper that was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

After Harper, Boston’s Payton Pritchard, Charlotte’s Brandon Miller and Detroit's Ausar Thompson round out the top four in the odds. There is a large group of players set at 20/1, led by Oklahoma City’s Cason Wallace.

Predicting the MIP is tough, and it’s always possible that a player like Alexander-Walker comes out of nowhere to run away with this award. Last season, I was close, taking his teammate Jalen Johnson (a first-time All-Star in the 2025-26 season) as my favorite bet in this market.

Here’s a look at the odds, a few players to consider, and my two favorite bets to win MIP this season.

NBA Most Improved Player Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Dylan Harper: +900
Payton Pritchard: +1100
Brandon Miller: +1100
Ausar Thompson: +1500
Cason Wallace: +2000
Kel’el Ware: +2000
Ty Jerome: +2000
Walker Kessler: +2200
Matas Buzelis: +2500
Zach Edey: +2500
Rui Hachimura: +2500
Pelle Larsson: +3000
Naz Reid: +3000
Ajay Mitchell: +3000
Peyton Watson: +4000
Jaden McDaniels: +4000
Egor Demin: +4000
Collin Murray-Boyles: +4000
Amen Thompson: +4000
Ayo Dosunmu: +4500
Terrence Shannon Jr.: +5000
Stephon Castle: +5000
Quentin Grimes: +5000
Donovan Clingan: +5000
Day’Ron Sharpe: +5000
Davion Mitchell: +5000

No other player has shorter than +6000 odds to win MIP.

Players to Consider in Most Improved Player Market

There are a ton of players that should see expanded roles this season that could help them win the MIP.

Harper is an obvious one, but taking a second-year player is a real risky bet considering how voters view this award. Both Daniels and Alexander-Walker were several seasons into their respective careers when winning this award, edging out younger players who made an early All-Star leap.

Pritchard – a former Sixth Man of the Year – could have a bigger role on offense with Jaylen Brown now in Philly, and Wallace figures to be a starter for Oklahoma City after the Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe trades.

Wallace is also in a contract year, which is something to keep an eye on for players that want to have career-best seasons.

Further down the odds board, I really like Jaden McDaniels after he showed an impressive scoring repertoire in the playoffs with Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo injured last season. The Wolves are a bit thinner in the frontcourt, which could lead to more touches and shots for McDaniels. He’s an elite two-way player, and if his scoring makes a major jump, voters may consider him since he’ll likely be doing it for a playoff team.

Most Improved Player Best Bets

There are two players that I’m targeting to win this award, mainly because I think they have paths to an All-Star berth if they reach their potential.

Walker Kessler (+2200)

Los Angeles Lakers center Walker Kessler is my long shot bet in this market . He was limited to just five games in his fourth NBA season, so the “improvement” for him may be more about staying healthy.

However, playing with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves should work wonders for Kessler on the offensive end. He’s going to get a ton of easy looks at the rim, and it’s worth noting that he averaged 14.4 points per game last season before getting hurt.

I think he could end up in the 16-17 points per game range, and the perfect scenario is that he’s one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA. This bet is set at +2200 for a reason, but Kessler is walking into a huge role where he won’t have to worry about getting shut down due to his team tanking. If he puts himself into the conversation for an All-Defensive team (he’s averaged 2.4 blocks per game in his career), Kessler certainly could win this award.

Brandon Miller (+1100)

I wrote about Miller as one of the leading candidates in this market and he’s my favorite out of the top four in the odds.

Charlotte’s turnaround last season happened when Miller returned from an injury, and he has a path to a massive year – and potentially an All-Star berth – as the No. 1 option in Charlotte.

Miller averaged 20.2 points per game in his third season and shot a career-high 38.3 percent from beyond the arc. He should see even more shots with LaMelo Ball now in Minnesota, and if Charlotte maintains a similar level of success (a play-in berth, perhaps?) Miller is going to get consideration for this award.

I’d like to see him make strides as a passer and on the defensive end, especially since he has the frame to be an elite wing defender in this league. Still, a scoring jump to 23-24 a game may be enough to give Miller this award in his fourth NBA season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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