Peter’s Points: 2026-27 NBA Season Predictions and Picks (Best Bets for NBA Finals, MVP, Futures Markets)

It’s time to say those wonderful three words again.

Basketball is back.

The 2026-27 NBA season begins on Tuesday, Oct. 20, and two things that I never thought I’d see happen will take place to open the season.

The New York Knicks are NBA Champions and will hang a banner at Madison Square Garden. Oh, and they take the Philadelphia 76ers and … LeBron James?

THIS LEAGUE.

As always, I’m predicting all of the biggest markets in the NBA, from the Finals winner, to the MVP, to Rookie of the Year and even some All-NBA selections this season.

Last season’s picks were highlighted by the New York Knicks cashing a preseason NBA Finals bet, and I have four contenders to win the title in 2026 as part of my 23 futures bets for the 2026-27 season.

While it’s always exciting to predict one of these bets correctly from the jump, part of the process – and attempting to guarantee a profit – is about establishing a strong position in the market now to potentially hedge later on. That’s particularly helpful in the award markets, especially if I’m able to lock down a leading candidate at a strong preseason price.

A wild offseason featured the Los Angeles Clippers-Kawhi Leonard scandal finally coming to an end (sorry, Clippers fans), Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron and LaMelo Ball changing teams, and so much more.

So, who will win the Finals? What about the MVP? Are the Los Angeles Lakers going to be just as good without LeBron? Can the Knicks repeat? Will Cameron Boozer win Rookie of the Year?

I’m answering all of those questions – and more – in this year’s NBA preview edition of Peter’s Points.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 0-0 (+0.00 units)
2025-26 season record: 330-292-0 (-2.98 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1621-1528-27 (+30.17 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Every season, I track my NBA betting record, and after being slightly in the red in the 2025-26 campaign, I’m eyeing a bounce-back season.

NBA Championship Predictions and Picks

After hitting the NBA Finals winner in the preseason in the 2025-26 campaign, I have four teams that I’m placing a bet on in 2026-27.

One important statistic to note: Since the 1996-97 season, every team that ended up winning the NBA Finals finished in the top eight in net rating in the regular season.

San Antonio Spurs (+270) – 0.5 unit

It seems inevitable that one of the San Antonio Spurs or Oklahoma City Thunder will come out of the Western Conference – barring injury – so I’m betting on both to win the Finals.

The Spurs finished in the top three in the NBA in offensive rating, net rating and defensive rating last season, and they added more veteran depth with their signing of Tobias Harris. There are some concerns about how the three-guard lineup will work with Dylan Harper angling to start, but Harper, Stephon Castle and Victor Wembanyama are all ascending young players that were way ahead of schedule making the Finals last season.

It’s possible that the loss to New York was exactly the experience this Spurs team needed to go through to succeed in the postseason, and I do think that San Antonio has the depth to compete with OKC for the No. 1 spot in the West.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+270) – 0.5 unit

Oklahoma City revamped the roster a big in the offseason, sending out Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe in trades to get cheaper around the core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams.

There could be some growing pains with some of the young players in this OKC rotation, but the bench could be elite with Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain leading the way.

OKC had the best record and net rating in the NBA last season, and it took the Spurs to seven games in the Western Conference Finals even with Jalen Williams and Mitchell missing most of the series. If those two had played, the OKC offense would not have been nearly as dependent on SGA as it became.

Health is always key, but the Thunder depth is super important when it comes to this pick. Even if a star goes down (like Williams and SGA did in the 2025-26 season), this team is capable of winning 60-plus games.

New York Knicks (+900) – 0.5 unit

There hasn’t been a repeat champion in the NBA since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018, but I’m willing to take the Knicks at this price.

Most of the rotation is back – New York essentially swapped Mitchell Robinson for Andre Drummond – and the Knicks went on a historic playoff run last season, posting a net rating of plus-15.4 while losing just three games. This team was No. 5 in net rating, No. 7 in defensive rating and No. 4 in offensive rating during the regular season.

Part of the season repeating is tough, is the fact that long, grueling playoff runs are hard to recover from. The Knicks, who swept two teams in the playoffs in 2026, only played 19 total games (the minimum to win a title is 16). So, it’s possible this team may recover easier than other defending champions.

There is a ton of chemistry in this starting five, and New York should be viewed as the favorite in a tougher Eastern Conference. Plus, Jalen Brunson solidified himself as the best playoff performer currently in the NBA, and that makes it a lot easier to bet on New York, knowing that he’s capable of raising his game to an insane level in the playoffs.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+2500) – 0.25 unit

If there’s a team that can dethrone OKC or San Antonio in the West, I think it’s the Timberwolves.

Minnesota revamped the roster in the offseason, sending out Naz Reid and Julius Randle and bringing in LaMelo Ball. Losing Reid is tough, but Ball should take a ton of pressure off of Anthony Edwards as a ball-handler, and there’s a chance this offense could be one of the best in the league.

Ball led Charlotte to the No. 5 offense in the NBA last season, and the Wolves should be a much better 3-point shooting team than they have been in the past.

This team is +2500 for a reason, though, as there are concerns. Ball’s health has been a question his entire NBA career. The lack of depth for the Wolves in the frontcourt is an issue as well, and a Rudy Gobert injury could completely derail this team’s season on the defensive end.

Still, Edwards and Co. have played both OKC and San Antonio tough and simply weren’t healthy last postseason. If you’re going to take a shot on a Western Conference team, I think it should be a Wolves squad that has multiple appearances in the conference finals in the last three years.

NBA Playoff Predictions and Picks

Miami Heat to Miss the Playoffs (+210) – 0.25 unit

The Eastern Conference is going to be much better than previous seasons, and someone that is expected to make the playoffs is going to fall out of the top eight.

Why not Miami?

The Knicks, Celtics, Pistons, Cavaliers, Pacers, Raptors, 76ers, Heat, Hawks, Magic, Hornets and maybe Washington all can make a claim that they’ll finish the season in a top-10 spot in the East this season. The problem? That’s 12 teams.

Miami obviously made a massive offseason move to add Giannis Antetokounmpo, but a lot of the team’s depth is questionable. Are Pelle Larsson and Davion Mitchell good enough as two of the lead guards? What does Klay Thompson have left in the tank? Is there enough ball-handling/shooting around Giannis?

We saw Milwaukee fail to build a playoff team around the two-time league MVP, and he’s also been extremely injury prone in the last few seasons, dealing with calf issues. So, is Miami equipped to survive a few weeks without Giannis?

I doubt it. He’s played over 70 games once since the 2019-20 season, and the Heat offense doesn't have a real go-to option (sorry Bam Adebayo) if Giannis goes down. At its best, Miami will be an elite defensive team with the threat of Giannis being the best player on the floor in any given game.

I just don’t like the depth. There’s a chance the Heat are back in the play-in for the fifth season in a row, and with the competition in the East, I don’t think it’s a guarantee that they’ll make it out.

Playoff Parlay (-147) – 0.25 unit

New York Knicks to Make the Playoffs
Boston Celtics to Make the Playoffs
Minnesota Timberwolves to Make the Playoffs
Los Angeles Lakers to Make the Playoffs

Not much to break down here, especially since I took two of these teams to win the Finals. All four of these teams are heavily favored to make the playoffs, and I believe there is an obvious top six in the West (OKC, San Antonio, Minnesota, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles Lakers) with the rest of the conference up in the air.

Out East, New York and Boston are the two teams that I have the most confidence in, and they’ve been 50-win squads with Jalen Brunson (New York ) and Jayson Tatum (Boston) on the floor. I think it would take a major injury for one of these teams to sink this parlay.

NBA Win Total Predictions and Picks

The NBA’s new draft and anti-tanking rules are going to change the win total market in a big way this season. It’s no longer advantageous to be in the bottom three, so tanking teams won’t be handing free wins out like it’s Halloween candy during the final month of the season.

The market has adjusted quite a few win totals lower than usual with the expectation that the bottom teams in the league will finish with more wins than previous years.

Los Angeles Lakers OVER 44.5 Wins (-125) – 0.25 unit

The Lakers have won 47 or more games in three consecutive seasons, and I think they’ve built this roster to conform to Luka Doncic’s strengths now that LeBron is in Philadelphia.

Even with Doncic, James and Austin Reaves missing time last season, the Lakers won 53 games – their second straight 50-win season under J.J. Redick. The new roster may be tougher to project, but Doncic has been a serious floor raiser in his NBA career.

After winning just 33 games in Dallas as a rookie, Doncic has led his teams to 43 (shortened season), 42 (shortened season), 52, 38, 50, 50 and 53 wins between his time in Dallas and Los Angeles.

The Western Conference may be weaker than the East this season, and I don’t like the Pacific Division at all with the Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Los Angeles Clippers. That alone should be a huge boost for the Lakers, who are heavily favored to win the division.

As long as Luka plays 60-plus games, I expect the Lakers to finish in the top six in the West, and 45 wins seems very reasonable even if the team takes a small step back from last season’s total.

Detroit Pistons UNDER 50.5 Wins (-150) – 0.25 unit

Detroit won 60 games in the 2025-26 season, so this is a bet on some major regression. Some of it has to do with the rule changes and the improvement of the East, but I’m also way lower on the Pistons than consensus in the 2026-27 season.

Detroit failed to get a true No. 2 ball-handling option after Cade Cunningham, and the team let Tobias Harris walk in free agency. Harris was clearly the best shot-creator after Cunningham during the team’s playoff run with Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson getting exposed as limited offensive players.

The Pistons have gone all-in on a Cunningham-Duren-Thompson core, which should expose similar offensive issues in the 2026-27 season. Plus, the team’s big offseason moves were to re-sign Kevin Huerter and add Isaiah Joe and John Collins.

I think the Pistons are potentially worse than they were starting last season, and the entire Duren contract negotiation cast a dark cloud over this team in the offseason. Detroit will likely be a playoff team, but in this new NBA world, I don’t see it winning more than 50 games.

Indiana Pacers OVER 43.5 Wins (-115) – 0.25 unit

The 2025-26 season was a complete reset season for the Pacers, who made the 2025 NBA Finals but lost Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) in Game 7 of that series.

Haliburton is now back, and the Pacers added Ivica Zubac during the 2025-26 season to give them a much different look. I think we can’t look past the fact that Indiana had a ton of injuries to open the 2025-26 season that completely took away any desire to contend.

This is still a deep team, and Rick Carlisle is an absolute chameleon, adapting to every single change that the league throws his way. Indiana’s uptempo style and full-court pressure made it a pain to play against in the 2024-25 campaign.

Of all the teams in the playoff hunt in the East around this win total, I like the Pacers’ ceiling the best since we know this can be an Eastern Conference Finals team with Haliburton healthy.

Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 42.5 Wins (-120) – 0.25 unit

I’m out on the Portland Trail Blazers and their new ownership.

Portland won 42 games in the 2025-26 and made the playoffs, but Tom Dundon has shown he’d much rather cut costs than anything, and that could impact how this team operates at the trade deadline this season.

The Ja Morant-Damian Lillard pairing has the potential to be a disaster on defense, and I don’t really see the offensive upside. After all, what version of Ja Morant even exists in 2026-27?

The Blazers were just 19th in the NBA in net rating last season, and I’m expecting them to take a small step back in the West with teams like Dallas and Utah likely having higher floors. Portland dominated bad teams in the 2025-26 season, going 26-7 against squads that were under .500 and just 16-33 against teams that were .500 or better. This season, those under .500 teams won't be incentivized to lose games.

If there aren’t tanking teams handing Portland wins, I don’t see it being better than it was last season.

NBA MVP Predictions and Picks

Before I get into my MVP picks this season, there are a few trends that I need to highlight when it comes to this market.

Only five league MVPs have played less than 70 games since the 1977-78 season

Joel Embiid in the 2022-23 season
Giannis Antetokounmpo in the 2019-20 season (shortened because of COVID-19)
LeBron James in the 2011-12 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)
Karl Malone in the 1998-99 season (shortened because of NBA lockout)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the 2025-26 season

So, even if a player reaches the 65-game threshold needed to win MVP, it’s not common that players that just hit that number win this award.

It’s not impossible (SGA just did it), but he’s one of just two players in nearly 50 years to do so in a non-shortened season.

There have been eight back-to-back MVPs since 2000

Tim Duncan, LeBron James (twice), Steve Nash, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have all won back-to-back MVP awards.

The MVP almost always plays on a team in the top three of its respective conference

Since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won an MVP without being a top-three seed. They were both the No. 6 seed.

So, when betting on this market, we’re not only looking for a player that is going to put up big numbers, but we also want someone with a path to a top seed in their conference.

Nikola Jokic (+500) – 0.5 unit

Nikola Jokic has finished first or second in the NFL MVP race in each of the last six seasons, making him a must-bet in this market every season.

The Denver Nuggets star averaged 27.7 points per game in the 2025-26 season and led the league in rebounds per game (12.9) and assists per game (10.7). Jokic’s on/off numbers are always insane with the Nuggets going +12.7 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court vs. off of it.

The narrative has shifted to Victor Wembanyama this season, but he’s far from a lock to play 65 games. Even with a serious knee injury last season, Jokic made the 65-game threshold for the 11th season in a row.

With the rest of the NBA world a little lower on this Denver team, I think Jokic getting the Nuggets into a top-three spot – and putting up his usual gaudy numbers – put him firmly in the mix again this season.

Luka Doncic (+550) – 0.5 unit

Doncic led the league in scoring (33.5 points per game) in the 2025-26 season, and he has a chance to lead the Lakers to a top-three seed in the Western Conference.

The Lakers have been the No. 3 seed and the No. 4 seed in the West in Doncic’s two seasons with the franchise, and he’s coming off fourth-place MVP finish in the 2025-26 campaign.

The 65-game threshold is a concern for Doncic (he needed an exception to be eligible for All-NBA and award last season), but this Lakers team is designed perfectly for his skill set.

I think there’s a chance Doncic averages around 35 points per game in the 2026-27 season, which would immediately vault him into some unique company in NBA history. This is a big bet on the Lakers’ ceiling as a team, but the path is there for Doncic to win the first MVP in his career.

Jayson Tatum (+1800) – 0.5 unit

Jayson Tatum is walking into the obvious lead role for the Boston Celtics in the 2026-27 season with Jaylen Brown now in Philadelphia.

Prior to last season (when he missed most of the year recovering from an Achilles injury), Tatum had been a top-six finisher in the NBA MVP voting four years in a row. The Celtics star is a threat to average a double-double, and his playmaking will be even more important with Brown out of town.

The Celtics have been a dominant regular season team in the Joe Mazzulla era, and a strong season from Tatum where Boston ends up as a top-two seed could vault him into MVP conversations.

Brown was a First Team All-NBA player in Boston last season, and Tatum is just a better all-around player. The Celtics forward could be in the mix to average somewhere around 27 points, 10 rebounds and six assists in the 2026-27 season. That, and Boston exceeding expectations record wise, is certainly in play after is blew past expectations without Tatum last season.

I think he’s worth a look as a long shot as he’s been a lock for First Team All-NBA when he’s healthy.

NBA Defensive Player of the Year Predictions and Picks

Scottie Barnes (+5000) – 0.25 unit

If you’re betting on this market and not taking Victor Wembanyama, you’re betting on the Spurs star playing less than 65 games.

I think Scottie Barnes is worth a look as a long shot in this market after he posted a career-high 2.3 defensive box plus/minus last season. Barnes can guard all five positions, and he should be on an even better team with Kawhi Leonard now in Toronto.

Barnes’ versatility as a defender is extremely underrated, and he finished fifth in the voting for DPOY last season. Plus, he is going to put up the counting stats, averaging 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks per game in the 2025-26 campaign.

Toronto was the No. 5 defense in the league last season, and Barnes was a massive reason why. I think his stock will rise in this market early on in the campaign.

Victor Wembanyama (-360) – 1 unit

In both of his seasons where he’s met the 65-game threshold, Victor Wembanyama has finished second and first in the DPOY voting. He’s averaging over three blocks per game in his career and is by far the most impactful defensive player in the league.

He’s going to win this award if he plays 65 games, and I’m not going to miss the chance to cash in on him in this market.

NBA Sixth Man of the Year Predictions and Picks

Payton Pritchard (+1000) – 0.5 unit

Payton Pritchard won the Sixth Man of the Year award in the 2024-25 season, but he started too many games last season to be eligible for this award.

Now, Pritchard appears to be destined for a major bench role with the Celtics acquiring Paul George, but he’s much more than your typical Sixth Man.

The former Oregon star has played over 28 minutes per game in back-to-back seasons, and he’ll likely close games for Boston. Joe Mazzulla just clearly likes the flexibility of bringing Pritchard off the bench to run the second unit when Jayson Tatum is off the floor. Last year, Pritchard averaged a career-high 17.0 points per game, and he could have another level if he sees more opportunities in the 2026-27 season.

The replacing of Jaylen Brown with Tatum should boost the entire Boston offense with the playmaking ability of the former Duke star.

This market is very volatile depending upon lineups, but Pritchard has proven he’s one of the best bench scorers in the NBA.

NBA Rookie of the Year Predictions and Picks

Cameron Boozer (+300) – 0.5 unit

No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer may already be the best player on the Memphis Grizzlies, and he’s shown flashes in preseason and in Summer League that he can lead this team to some success in the 2026-27 campaign.

Boozer is walking in as a double-double threat, and his unique passing ability and basketball IQ should allow him to be the hub of this Memphis offense.

The Rookie of the Year award comes down a lot to usage, and Boozer clearly has the best path to a No. 1 workload – or at least a lead role – in the 2026-27 season.

Darryn Peterson (+330) – 0.5 unit

I’m enamored with Darryn Peterson’s scoring talent, and I think he could be an integral part of a Utah Jazz team that should be in the mix to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.

One of the most polished scorers coming out of college in a long time, Peterson will have to cede touches to Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr, but he could be in play to average around 15-20 points per game.

Peterson had some massive showings in Summer League, and if he takes a step as a playmaker as the season goes along, he could be the most impactful offensive player in this class.

I prefer his path to touches over A.J. Dybantsa (playing with the ball-dominant Trae Young) and Caleb Wilson (playing on a bad Chicago team). Peterson was my favorite player in this draft, and I think his scoring ability will immediately endear him to voters.

NBA Most Improved Player Predictions and Picks

Walker Kessler (+2200) – 0.25 unit

Kessler was limited to just five games in his fourth NBA season, so the “improvement” for him may be more about staying healthy.

However, playing with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves should work wonders for Kessler on the offensive end. He’s going to get a ton of easy looks at the rim, and it’s worth noting that he averaged 14.4 points per game last season before getting hurt.

I think he could end up in the 16-17 points per game range, and the perfect scenario is that he’s one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA. This bet is set at +2200 for a reason, but Kessler is walking into a huge role where he won’t have to worry about getting shut down due to his team tanking.

If he puts himself into the conversation for an All-Defensive team (he’s averaged 2.4 blocks per game in his career), Kessler certainly could win this award.

Brandon Miller (+1300) – 0.25 unit

Charlotte’s turnaround last season happened when Brandon Miller returned from an injury, and he has a path to a massive year – and potentially an All-Star berth – as the No. 1 option in Charlotte.

Miller averaged 20.2 points per game in his third season and shot a career-high 38.3 percent from beyond the arc. A lot of times, a first-time All-Star wins this award, and Miller has a really intriguing argument to be in that mix this season.

He should see even more shots with LaMelo Ball in Minnesota, but he’ll need to make strides as a passer and on the defensive end. If Charlotte remains in the playoff mix in the East, Miller is going to be a big reason why.

All-NBA Predictions

All-NBA markets can be volatile, as a player is immediately disqualified if they don’t play 65 games (like many of these awards), but I found a few plus-money picks for the 2026-27 season.

Cooper Flagg to Make an All-NBA Team (+600) – 0.25 unit

Cooper Flagg averaged 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game as a rookie, and he should have a much easier time on offense with Kyrie Irving back in the 2026-27 season.

Making a jump from a Rookie to the Year to All-NBA isn’t impossible, and Flagg averaged 24.7 points, 7.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game over his final 27 games in the regular season.

If he puts up those numbers in the 2026-27 season, he could sneak onto Third Team All-NBA, especially if there are a bunch of players that end up being ineligible.

LeBron James to Make an All-NBA Team (+650) – 0.25 unit

This may seem crazy since LeBron James is going to be 42 years old during the 2026-27 season, but he’s made 21 All-NBA teams in his career.

Injuries limited James to 60 games in the 2025-26 season, but most of those were games he missed to start the year with sciatica. He still averaged 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game while shooting 51.5 percent from the field.

James may not be asked to score as much in Philly, but Joel Embiid isn’t going to play a ton of games based on his injury history and I expect LeBron to be in the mix to play 65 or more games. He could end up having huge assist numbers with this offense, and I am not buying that the four-time league MVP is going to completely take a step back as a scorer.

If the Sixers have a strong season, James is going to be at the center of it. He’s worth a look at +650 to make one of the three All-NBA teams.

Jayson Tatum to Make First-Team All-NBA (+275) – 0.25 unit

Before he missed most of last season due to injury, Tatum had made First-Team All-NBA in four straight years.

He’s been a very durable player in this career, and I think there’s a good chance a star player like Giannis, Luka or Wemby fails to reach the 65-game threshold just based on their injury history.

Tatum is walking into a Celtics team that has been a regular-season wins machine, and he should put up comparable – if not better – numbers than Jaylen Brown did last season when he made First Team All-NBA. I’m shocked Tatum is this far down in the odds to make this team for the fifth time in his career.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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