2026 March Madness Final Four and National Championship Betting Picks Ahead of Sweet 16

The first weekend of March Madness action is in the rear-view mirror, which means it's time to take a breath, look at the latest odds boards, and make a few bets before the Sweet 16 begins on Thursday.

In this article, the SI Betting Team, Iain MacMilland and Peter Dewey, are going to make their Final Four picks along with their predictions for which team will win the National Championship. Let's dive into it.

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All odds listed in this article are via DraftKings Sportsbook

Sports Illustrated Final Four Predictions

Pick to Win East Region

Peter Dewey: Michigan State +490

Could Tom Izzo’s Spartans make an underdog run to the Final Four? Michigan State has played well over the first two rounds of the tournament, and now it takes on UConn in the Sweet 16, which needed a big game from Alex Karaban to beat a short-handed UCLA team in the Round of 32.

The Huskies are a tough test, but the guard play of Jeremy Fears may be the best in this entire region. Duke has looked vulnerable in its win over Siena and in the first half against TCU, while I think St. John’s offense (42nd in KenPom) may come back to bite them.

The Spartans are the No. 9 team in KenPom and are essentially in a pick’em with UConn in the Sweet 16. At +490, this is a pretty intriguing price for Izzo’s squad.

Iain MacMillan: Duke -125

Despite almost losing to Siena in the opening round, I still have faith in the Duke Blue Devils to advance to the Final Four. They finally woke up in the second half of the Round of 32 against the TCU Horned Frogs, and I expect them to carry that momentum into the Sweet 16.

People know about the talent on Duke's roster, but the Blue Devils don't get the credit they deserve for being the best defensive team in college basketball, ranking higher in defensive efficiency than the likes of Michigan, Houston, and Arizona.

Momentum is a great equalizer, and as we've seen, if an elite team has one off game, their season can end in a blink, but at the end of the day, we have to trust the season-long underlying numbers that show that Duke is the best team left in the NCAA Tournament.

Pick to Win South Region

Peter Dewey: Houston +105

I’m sticking with my pick from before the tournament started and riding with the Houston Cougars to win the South Region.

Houston has one of the toughest Sweet 16 matchups against No. 3 Illinois, but the path after that is considerably easier after No. 9 Iowa knocked out No. 1 Florida.

Houston has moved up to No. 4 in KenPom after the first weekend of play, dominating Texas A&M in the second round. The Cougars are a top-10 team in adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency, and have a star guard in Kingston Flemings.

If Houston gets past Illinois, it should walk to the Final Four.

Iain MacMillan: Nebraska +370

I'm going to change from my pre-tournament pick of Houston to win this region. I have too many concerns about Houston's shooting numbers, which are completely average when compared to the rest of the country. Now, they may have to face two teams that are great 3-point shooting teams, which means they have the ability to attack the Cougars where they're weak, the perimeter.

That's why I'm going to back Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are underrated in this tournament, despite ranking 27th in effective field goal percentage and 15th in defensive efficiency. I have some questions about whether or not Nebraska will be able to beat whichever team is waiting for them in the Final Four, but their numbers and how they play basketball give them a very real chance to come out of the South.

Pick to Win West Region

Peter Dewey: Arizona -145

I’m not wavering in the West Region either, as I picked Arizona to win the region before the tournament and am sticking to it. The Wildcats held off Utah State in the Round of 32, and they’re now second in the odds to win the NCAA Tournament behind only Michigan.

Arizona can win in a variety of ways, but the guard play of Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries is the key to this team’s success. Arizona is now second in KenPom, ranking in the top five in both offensive rating and defensive rating.

I’m sticking with Arizona as my national championship pick, as I believe it has the deepest team in the country (seven players averaging over eight points per game).

Iain MacMillan: Arizona -145

Not only do I think that Arizona is a near-perfect team, evidenced by the fact they've lost just two games all season despite playing in the ultra-competitive Big 12, but I think they have an extremely favorable path to the Final Four.

The other three teams left in the West Region are Arkansas, Purdue, and Texas. All three of those teams rank outside the top 150 in the country in defensive efficiency, and Arkansas and Texas rank outside the top 200. If you aren't flawless on both sides of the court, the only hope you have in beating Arizona is that they bring their F game, which is a tough thing to rely on.

The Wildcats will win this region.

Pick to Win Midwest Region

Peter Dewy: Michigan -170

Before the tournament began, I picked the Iowa State Cyclones to make it out of the Midwest Region. The No. 2-seeded Cyclones are still alive, but second-leading scorer Joshua Jefferson suffered an ankle injury that puts his status in question going forward.

So, I’m going to back the Wolverines after watching two rounds of play. Michigan dominated Saint Louis in the second round, and the team’s guard play has been pretty steady, even with LJ Cason out for the season.

Like Arizona, Michigan can win in a variety of ways, and it boasts the No. 2 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country.

I also love the path for the Wolverines, as they’ll face an Alabama team that struggles defensively in the Sweet 16 before facing the winner of Iowa State vs. Tennessee. If Jefferson is out for the next two rounds, Michigan should be an overwhelming favorite in the Elite 8.

Oddsmakers have already set the Wolverines as double-digit favorites against Bama in the Sweet 16.

Iain MacMillan: Iowa State +250

Let's not overreact to Joshua Jefferson's injury. Iowa State is still an elite team and can make a deep run this march. Not only are they 16th in effective field goal percentage and fourth in defensive efficiency, but they're one of the best teams in the country in turning the ball over. That final point is going to play a huge role the next two rounds.

Both Tennessee and Michigan rank outside the top 150 in the country in turnovers per possession, which could cost them against this Cyclones team. Let's hope Joshua Jefferson comes back healthy and Iowa State stays hot. I still think they're the most underrated team left in the NCAA Tournament.

Sports Illustrated National Championship Predictions

Peter Dewey: Arizona +330
Iain MacMillan: Iowa State +1700

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