2026 Men's U.S. Open Odds (Carlos Alcaraz Set as Favorite in First Tournament Since Injury)

No player in men's tennis not named Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner won a Grand Slam in 2024 or 2025, but the top two tennis players in the world have been battling injuries this season, which opened the door for Alexander Zverev to win the French Open.

With that being said, Alcaraz won the Australian Open and Sinner won Wimbledon. Now, it's Sinner who is sidelined, and Alcaraz is the one who will be competing. Normally, he would be an odds-on favorite to win the U.S. Open, but with this being his first tournament back in action since his injury, the betting market thinks there's an opening for someone else to win.

Let's dive into the odds.

Men's U.S. Open Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Carlos Alcaraz +195
Alexander Zverev +330
Novak Djokovic +700
Ben Shelton +1000
Arthur Fils +1300
Rafael Jodar +1300
Taylor Fritz +1400
Daniil Medvedev +2500
Felix Auger-Aliassime +3000
Jakub Mensik +3300
Flavio Cobolli +3500
Tommy Paul +4000
Frances Tiafoe +4000
Joao Fonseca +4000
Lorenzo Musetti +4500
Alexander Bublik +5000
Alex De Minaur +5000
Learner Tien +5000
Brandon Nakashima +5000

Alcaraz is set as the +195 betting favorite to win his third U.S. Open, an implied probability of 33.9%. Those odds are unheard of for Alcaraz, especially with Sinner not competing.

With that being said, there's good reason for him to be listed at almost 2-1 odds. Not only are there health concerns remaining, but this is going to be his first competitive tournament since Barcelona in April. He may be healthy, but he's almost certainly not in peak form.

The player I'm going to recommend betting on is 19-year-old Rafael Jodar from Spain. If you haven't been paying attention, he's the next young phenom in men's tennis. He made it to the final in Washington in July and the semifinal in Canada in early August. He also made it to the quarterfinal at the French Open earlier this year.

There is no competitor in this tournament who impresses me from a skill perspective outside of Alcaraz, so if he isn't in peak form, let's bet on young talent to get past the unimpressive veterans.

Pick: Rafael Jodar +1300 via FanDuel

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