3M Open Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell and Winner Without Scheffler

Scottie Scheffler is in the field for this week’s 3M Open, giving this post-major hangover event a little juice. It also gives us a good chance to bounce back and get another outright win after back-to-back near misses. Perhaps we’ll even hit one in the winner without market.

The SI Golf betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, FanSided content director Cody Williams and, yours truly, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction. The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque is off this week.

I'm still thinking about our close calls on Sam Burns and Si Woo Kim at the Open Championship last week and Matt Fitzpatrick and Chris Gotterup at the Scottish Open the week before. But those narrow losses forge our belief that a win is right around the corner. No better week than now.

While Scheffler is a big betting favorite at +260 on FanDuel, this event has created plenty of longshot winners in the past. Even if Scheffler wins, we do have some picks in the winner without market for you to consider.

We all went in different directions when it came to our picks, but driving distance and accuracy were clearly a focus. Let’s get into our picks.

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Michael Brennan winner w/o Scheffler +5100 (DraftKings)

TPC Twin Cities is all about driving distance, which is proven by the list of winners over the years, including Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, and Kurt Kitayama last year. Michael Brennan is third in the field this week in driving distance over the past three months. He has also had some strong outings this season, including a T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He could shine in a weak field.

Brian Kirschner: Hideki Matsuyama +3000 (FanDuel)

I'm not really sure I understand this price. Deki is a major winner and 10 time winner on the PGA Tour coming off two straight top 15 finishes where he gained strokes in every major category. Deki is by far the second-best player in the field and I think 30 is a great price. He's played well here before and is doing everything well. This seems like a bet you want to make.

Brad Thomas: Hideki Matsuyama winner w/o Scheffler +2250 (DraftKings)

These odds in this field feel like a massive sign of disrespect toward Hideki Matsuyama. Even at 33/1 with Scottie Scheffler in the field, you have to believe Hideki is playing better golf than those odds suggest. Back to back top 20 finishes show his game is trending in the right direction, and it feels like he’s getting close to being back.

Cody Williams: Keith Mitchell +3500 (Caesars)

Missing the cut at the Open Championship doesn’t deter me when it comes to Keith Mitchell. He continues to hit the ball quite well overall, gaining strokes off the tee in 14 straight events and on approach in six of his last seven starts. Furthermore, he’s first in the field in Birdie or Better rate over the last 24 rounds. I love where his game is at, and this feels like an ideal opportunity for Cashmere Keith to break loose with a win, especially with two top-five finishes under his belt in this event.

Brian Giuffra: Sudarshan Yellamaraju +8000 (FanDuel)

This is a little bit of a shot in the dark, but Yellamaraju’s hottest run this season came on courses similar to TPC Twin Cities. Yes, he’s missed the cut in two of his last three events, but this feels like a good fit for Yellamaraju. He’s long and accurate off the tee. His putting is solid. His approach game can be streaky, but that’s why we’re getting him at this price.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Gordon Sargent winner w/o Scheffler +11000 (DraftKings)

Gordon Sargent quietly played to a T2 finish at last week's Corales Puntacana Championship, the opposite-field event during the British Open. That's a great sign for him coming into this week at a course where he can utilize his best weapon: his driving distance. He's worth a shot as a dark horse at 110-1.

Brian Kirschner: Zach Bauchou +12000 (DraftKings)

I know I have written him up before, but I really think this is a great week for Zach. He is coming off a T9 at Corales and has a T6 at another TPC course earlier this year at the Byron Nelson. He has upside and I think his driver can give him a big edge this week.

Brad Thomas: Aaron Wise +25000

When I saw Aaron Wise at 500/1 on Monday, I almost threw up. I bet it then, and I’d still bet it at 250/1. Aaron Wise isn’t some out-of-nowhere golfer. He’s got serious talent, and his ball striking numbers have been really solid. Even at the current price, these odds still feel outrageous.

Byron Lindeque:

Cody Williams: Ben Kohles +7400 (DraftKings)

Should we be talking more about Ben Kohles? He’s first in SG: Approach in this field over the last 24 rounds — even better than the clear heavy favorite in Scottie Scheffler, and has a win on the Korn Ferry Tour and two Top 15 finishes on the PGA Tour in his last six overall starts. For a guy who is also a solid driver and has finished T20 and T24 at the last two 3M Opens, this feels like real value.

Brian Giuffra: Emiliano Grillo +10000 (DraftKings)

Grillo always seems to pop up near the top of the leaderboard a few times each season. TPC Twin Cities has been one of those spots, where he’s finished Top 10 three times. Last year, he was T20 here. This season, his best finish is a T7 at the Valspar, another course that rewards accuracy. Let’s see if he can get it done at a course he’s been successful at in the past.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Scottie Scheffler +1225 (DraftKings)

If Scottie Scheffler comes out and wipes the floor with the field this week, I hope he does it from start to finish. This might just be the best way to bet on the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world for this week. Getting off to a hot start hasn’t been a strong suit of his this season, but this week’s field is inferior enough compared to him that I’d be surprised if he doesn’t at least sniff the lead after the opening round.

Brian Kirschner: Sungjae Im +5000 (FanDuel)

Sungjae is coming off a great finish at the Open where he finished T14 and i think 50/1 is really a great price on Sungjae. He was FRL earlier this year at the Valspar and I see no reason why he cant start hot again this week at a course he has played well at before.

Brad Thomas: Jake Knapp +5000 (FanDuel)

I’m not sure Jake Knapp’s game is trending in the right direction, but the similarities to the Cognizant Classic make me feel like if anyone can go out there and fire a scorching round, it’s him. Let’s not forget his 59 at the Cognizant. All he needs is one 59 here, in the first round.

Byron Lindeque:

Cody Williams: Johnny Keefer +6200 (DraftKings)

This is really a bet on Johnny Keefer’s ball-striking while not trusting his short game in the slightest. Keefer is 18th in SG: Off the Tee and fifth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, and third in Biride or Better Gained percentage over that span as well. He’s absolutely capable of turning into a microwave and taking the lead at TPC Twin Cities, which should suit him quite well, but I don’t trust him enough to bet him outright.

Brian Giuffra: Maverick McNealy +4000 (FanDuel)

Mav has some history of success on this course and has a history of success in the first-round leader market. He’s long and accurate off the tee, which should position him nicely to go low on a one-round scenario.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Aldrich Potgieter Top 20 +320 (DraftKings)

Aldrich Potgieter's average driving distance is 330.6 yards, the longest on the PGA and 2.1 yards further per drive than Rory McIlroy. That's why he's an obvious bet at this week's 3M Open. He made the cut at last week's British Open, and he's only a few weeks removed from a T8 finish at the Canadian Open. His distance off the tee is going to give him a significant advantage on the field this week.

Brian Kirschner: Kevin Roy Top +40 +128 (DraftKings)

Kevin Roy sneakily had a good week at the Scottish Open and had a solid t11 finish. He went straight to Punta Cana and made the cut. I think that he can certainly make the weekend in Minnesota and land inside the top 40

Brad Thomas: Jackson Kouvin Top 30 +105

Discount on the kid. He’s played a lot of golf recently but we’ve kind of just forgotten how he was just 12-1 to win his first tournament. Undervalued now.

Byron Lindeque:

Cody Williams: Johnny Keefer Top 20 incl ties +225 (BetMGM)

Okay, so I don’t trust it enough outright, but I do trust this. In such a weak field overall for the 3M Open, I’m always going to find a way to invest in the ball-striking. Keefer is doing that at such a high level right now, I think he could even have a cold putter and end up in the top 20 this week with how well he’s hitting it right now.

Brian Giuffra: Emiliano Grillo Top 20 incl. ties +290 (FanDuel)

Grill has been Top 20 and ties here in four of six appearances. He was T24 here another time. This season, he only has two Top 20s on the year. If ever there was a place where he would find his groove, this is it.

Winning Score:

Iain MacMillan: -22
Brian Kirschner: -21
Brad Thomas: -19
Byron Lindeque:
Cody Williams: -22
Brian Giuffra: -20

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Add us as a preferred source on Google