Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Cooper Flagg, Bam Adebayo, Cam Thomas)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the NBA action on New Year’s Day, including a pick for Dallas Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg.

Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg is a great prop target on New Year's Day. / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The NBA brings in the New Year with a five-game slate on Thursday night, featuring a few interesting young players in Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, Keyonte George and others in action. 

Here’s a look at each game set for New Year’s Day: 

• Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets
• Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons
• Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks
• Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings
• Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers

There are some interesting players to consider in the prop market on Thursday, including Flagg and Heat big man Bam Adebayo. 

All season long, the SI Betting team shares our favorite NBA props throughout the week, and we’re starting off 2026 with a bang, as I have four prop bets for the five games on Jan. 1.

Here’s a complete breakdown and the latest odds for each pick! 

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Jan. 1 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Cam Thomas 18+ Points (-109)

Cam Thomas returned from injury in late December, appearing in two games ahead of Thursday’s matchup with Houston.

The Nets guard is one of the best pure scorers in the NBA, and he showed that in his first game back, scoring 30 points on 15 shots in less than 20 minutes of playing time.

Now, with Michael Porter Jr. questionable and Egor Demin out on Thursday, Thomas could see an even bigger role carrying this Nets offense. Houston is an elite defensive team, but Thomas is going to get his shots either way, as he’s taken 27 shots in his first two games back in action despite playing less than 20 minutes in both.

This season, Thomas is averaging 21.4 points per game, and he’s scored at least 18 points in six of the nine games that he was able to finish. As long as the volume is there, Thomas is a solid bet to come near his season average on Thursday. 

Bam Adebayo OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140)

Heat big man Bam Adebayo is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game this season, but oddsmakers have knocked his rebounds prop to 8.5 against a Detroit team that ranks second in the NBA in rebounding percentage.

Still, Miami is No. 1 in the NBA in pace, so there should be a ton of possessions on both sides, giving Bam plenty of time to pad his rebounding numbers. Earlier this season, Adebayo had 10 rebounds in 33 minutes in a 138-135 loss to Detroit, and he’s picked up at least nine boards in six straight games and 10 of his last 13.

Overall, the Heat star is averaging 14.1 rebound chances per game, so I’ll take a shot on him at this discounted price on Thursday. 

Cooper Flagg OVER 4.5 Assists (-146)

Cooper Flagg is averaging just over seven potential assists per game this season, and he’s turned that into 4.0 actual assists a night.

However, his assists per game have jumped to 5.7 over his last 10, and he has at least five dimes in five games in a row.

I think Flagg is worth a look as a playmaker on Thursday, especially against a Philadelphia team that is 20th in the NBA in opponent assists per game. 

Flagg got off to a slow start as a playmaker this season, but now that he’s back playing his normal position, he’s looked like an entirely different player. In December, the No. 1 overall pick averaged 23.5 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting 51.6 percent from the field.

I think he’s a great buy-low candidate in this prop market on New Year’s Day. 

Kawhi Leonard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-103)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Leonard is a great prop target against Utah: 

Kawhi Leonard has been red hot as of late, averaging 29.8 points per game in December while shooting 49.0 percent from the field and 36.0 percent from 3. 

Now, Leonard is looking to carry that momentum into the New Year against a Utah team that is 29th in the NBA in defensive rating. I’m eyeing Kawhi from beyond the arc in this game, as he’s shooting 38.6 percent from deep this season and Utah ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent 3s made per game (15.3) and is 27th in opponent 3-point percentage.

The two-time NBA Finals MVP has made four or more 3-pointers in four of his last five games, and he attempted more than seven 3s per game in December, up from his season-long average of 6.6 attempts per game.

This is a great matchup for Kawhi to continue his hot scoring stretch for L.A.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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