Akron vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament 1st Round

Christian Anderson and the No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders put together an impressive 2025-26 season, but they enter the NCAA Tournament without their best player – forward JT Toppin – who is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Still, oddsmakers have the Red Raiders set as favorites in their matchup with the No. 12 Akron Zips, who won the MAC in the 2025-26 season. Akron has one of the most potent offenses in the country, and it ended up winning the conference tournament after Miami (OH) lost to UMass in the quarterfinals.

Tavari Johnson and the Zips made the tourney last season, losing to the Arizona Wildcats in the first round. Can they get some revenge against a short-handed Texas Tech team?

The Red Raiders have dropped three games in a row, including a Big 12 Tournament game to Iowa State. So, they may be vulnerable in one of the infamous No. 12-No. 5 matchups that always seem to have an upset.

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this first-round game.

Akron vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Akron +7.5 (-105)
Texas Tech -7.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Akron: +270
Texas Tech: -340

Total

156.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Akron vs. Texas Tech How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 20
Time: 12:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Benchmark International Arena
How to Watch (TV): truTV
Akron record: 29-5
Texas Tech record: 22-10

Akron vs. Texas Tech Best Prop Bet

Tavari Johnson OVER 18.5 Points (-120)

The 2026 MAC Tournament MVP, guard Tavari Johnson enters the NCAA Tournament averaging 20.1 points per game while shooting 51.2 percent from the field and 37.3 percent from beyond the arc.

Johnson scored 19 or more points in 21 games this season, including 19 games with 20 or more points. He’s averaging 14.4 shots per game, and Johnson took more than his season average in field goal attempts in each game in the MAC Tournament.

Texas Tech is 79th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage, but the Zips are one of the best shooting offenses in the tournament. I think Johnson has a big game as he looks to avenge his 6-for-15 shooting game in last year’s NCAA Tournament.

Akron vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

Are the Zips live to pull off an upset in the first round of the NCAA Tournament?

Texas Tech put together a strong regular season, but it lost leading scorer and 2024-25 Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin for the season to a torn ACL. Then Christian Anderson (who will play in the NCAA Tournament) suffered an injury during the Big 12 Tournament.

So, the Red Raiders have a lot working against them heading into this matchup.

Meanwhile, Akron has one of the most potent offenses in the country, ranking seventh in effective field goal percentage, 14th in 3-point percentage and 79th in offensive rebound rate.

While Texas Tech is 20th in KenPom, it has slipped outside the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency and is 306th in opponent turnover rate. If the Red Raiders can’t turn the Zips over, they’re going to have to win a shootout in the first round. I think that favors the Zips and their elite shooting offense.

Pick: Akron +7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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