Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction, Odds for French Open Round 4

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has a tough test in the fourth round of the French Open, as she’ll take on No. 16 Naomi Osaka – a four-time Grand Slam winner – on Monday afternoon.

Sabalenka is looking for her first-ever title at Roland Garros, and she’s been dominant to open this year’s tournament, dropping just 18 games over her first three matches, winning all of them in straight sets.

With defending champion Coco Gauff eliminated, the path has opened up for Sabalenka to capture the title in 2026.

However, getting past Osaka won’t be an easy task. She’s revived her career over the last year and is currently on the best run of her career at the French Open. Osaka knocked off American Iva Jovic (the No. 17 ranked player) in Round 3.

Still, Sabalenka is a major favorite to advance in this matchup.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to Round 4 and my prediction for Monday’s match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Aryna Sabalenka: -503
Naomi Osaka: +368

Total

20.5 (Over -115/Under -130)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka How to Watch

Date: Monday, June 1
Time: 2:15 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): truTV/TNT/HBO Max

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka History and French Open Performance

Aryna Sabalenka

The No. 1 player in the world has been utterly dominant at Roland Garros in 2026, and she’s looking to make the final for the second year in a row.

Sabalenka has three straight finishes in at least the quarterfinals of the French Open, and she’s won all three of her matches this year in straight sets, winning 6-0, 7-5 in the third round.

This year, Sabalenka and Osaka have faced off twice, with Sabalenka winning both matches. She dominated their meeting at Indian Wells (6-2, 6-4) before going to three sets at the Madrid 1000.

Naomi Osaka

Osaka is back.

She made the semifinals of the U.S. Open in 2025, and she’s now put together her best performance at the French Open of her career. Osaka has traditionally struggled on clay, only advancing to the third round at the French Open three times before 2026.

She’s making her first-ever fourth-round appearance at Roland Garros. So, it does make sense that she’s an underdog in this match. Still, Osaka had a huge win in Round 3 against No. 17 Iva Jovic in three sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction and Pick

Sabalenka is heavily favored in this match, and while I do believe she wins, I’m going to try to predict this match to hit a plus-money bet.

This is risky since the No. 1 player in the world has dropped just 18 games in this entire tournament, but I do think Osaka is good enough to steal a set from Sabalenka on Monday.

If Osaka does that and Sabalenka still wins, DraftKings is offering that result at +290 odds.

The last time these two stars met was at the Madrid 1000 in Spain earlier this year – another tournament on clay. Osaka won the first set in a tiebreak, but Sabalenka closed things out, winning the next two sets 6-3, 6-2.

The only time Osaka beat Sabalenka was at the 2018 U.S. Open which was before Sabalenka’s rise to superstardom in the sport.

Osaka dropped a set in her last match and has been forced to four tiebreakers in seven sets so far at this tournament. I think she’ll struggle to defeat Sabalenka on clay, as the No. 1 player searches for her first-ever French Open title.

Pick: Sabalenka Wins 2-1 (+290 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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