Best Bets Today for June 22: Day 169 of Betting $100 Every Day for a Year (Picks for World Cup + Braves-Padres)

It was a bit of an up-and-down weekend when it comes to my journey of betting $100 every day for a year, but we enter a new week in the green.

World Cup action continues today but it's also time for me to dip my toe back in the world of Major League Baseball. Let's dive into my four bets for today's slate of games.

Betting $100 Every Day for a Year Record

Yesterday: 1-3 (-$58)
Year-to-date: 293-311-9 (+$34.39)

June 22 Picks and Best Bets

$30: Austria/Argentina UNDER 2.5 (-115) via BetMGM
$20: Norway +120 vs. Senegal via FanDuel
$20: Algeria -1.5 (+150) vs. Jordan via DraftKings
$30: Braves vs. Padres UNDER 7.5 (-108) via FanDuel

Austria vs. Argentina Prediction

Pick: $30 on UNDER 2.5 (-115)

Argentina may have dominated Algeria on the scoresheet thanks to some Lionel Messi magic, but you might be surprised to find out they had only 0.23 expected goals. With that being said, they put on a defensive masterclass, allowing -0.22 expected goals in that match.

On the other side of the pitch, I'm going to fade the Austrian offense that I had expected to come out aggressive in this tournament. The Austrians had only 0.39 expected goals against a far inferior Jordan team. The Argentinian defense is going to shut this offense down unless Austria makes some significant offensive adjustments.

Senegal vs. Norway Prediction

Pick: $20 on Norway +120

I don't know if there's a team outside of the upper echelon of countries that's going to be able to slow down this Norway offensive attack. You have to take their expected goals with a grain of salt. Sure, they had just 0.39 expected goals against Iraq, but Erling Haaland is such an elite finisher that he's going to capitalize on the large majority of his scoring chances. Norway's defense also looked better than expected in its first match.

Meanwhile, Senegal's offensive performance was putrid. They had -0.27 expected goals against France, the second-worst amongst all teams in the opening round. The offensive advantage Norway has in this match is enough for me to bet on them at +120 on the three-way moneyline.

Algeria vs. Jordan Prediction

Pick: $20 on Algeria -1.5 (+150)

Algeria played the defending champions much tougher than the final score would indicate, having an expected goal differential of -0.45. Now, they get to go from playing against the best team in the group to the worst. Jordan didn't look particularly impressive on either side of the pitch against a subpar Austria team.

I'm going to trust my pre-tournament evaluation of this Algeria team, which I believe is being undervalued in the betting market.

Braves vs. Padres Prediction

Pick: $30 on UNDER 7.5 (-108)

The Cleveland Guardians are the only team that has had a worse offense than the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres over the past month. The Braves rank 29th in wRC+ and the Padres rank 28th in that stat in the same time frame. The two teams have batting averages of .224 and .218 over the past 30 days as well.

While the starting pitching matchup is average at best, the Braves and the Padres will eventually turn to their bullpens, which, unlike their offenses, are amongst the best in baseball. The Braves come into today with the best bullpen over the past 30 days at 2.34, and the Padres are right behind them in third at 2.77.

This game has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.

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