Best Bets Today for June 29: Day 176 of Betting $100 Every Day for a Year (World Cup and MLB Picks)

My journey of betting $100 every day for a year continues with Day 176. Yesterday's strategy of going all in on Canada to win in regulation came through for us. It wasn't easy, but a goal in added time got us over the finish line.

We move on to today's action and while I'm being my diverse in my bets, I'm also getting aggressive with a couple of them, including betting on an MLB home run at 5-1 odds. Let's dive into them.

Betting $100 Every Day for a Year Record

Yesterday: 1-0 (+$66.67)
Year-to-date: 305-323-9 (+$171.69)

June 29 Picks and Best Bets

$20: Japan to Qualify vs. Brazil (+240) via FanDuel
$30: Germany -1.5 (+105) vs. Paraguay via TheScore Bet
$30: Netherlands vs. Morocco OVER 2.5 (+120) via FanDuel
$20: Andrew Vaughn Home Run (+500) via TheScore Bet

Japan vs. Brazil Prediction

Pick: $20 on Japan to Qualify (+240)

I'm going to take a chance on an upset in this spot and bet on Japan to advance to the next round at +240 odds.

I haven't been as impressed by Brazil as I expected. In fact, they're just 20th amongst all teams in the tournament in expected goal differential per 90 minutes at +0.31, despite playing two far inferior teams in Haiti and Scotland.

Japan hasn't been far better, sporting an expected goal differential of +0.03 per 90 minutes, but Japan's disciplined style of soccer could give Brazil some surprising issues in this match. Should Brazil be favored to advance? Absolutely. Should they be -320 favorites? I don't think so. Give me Japan.

Germany vs. Paraguay Prediction

Pick: $30 on Germany -1.5 (+105)

I was high on Paraguay coming into this tournament, but this team has disappointed me. At the end of the group stage, Paraguay had an expected goal differential of -1.51 per 90 minutes, the worst mark among all teams that qualified. Now, they have to face a German team that ranks seventh in expected goal differential at +1.19.

This has the making of a Round of 32 blowout.

Netherlands vs. Morocco Prediction

Pick: $30 on OVER 2.5 (+120)

The Netherlands and Morocco rank inside the top 14 in expected goals for per 90 minutes of play. The Netherlands has an expected goals for per 90 minutes of 1.78. And Morocco is right behind them at 1.75.

The Netherlands has also had some questionable defensive performances, sporting an expected goals against of 1.38 per 90 minutes played.

If those numbers hold up, this could be a high-scoring affair.

Reds vs. Brewers Prop Bet

Pick: $20 on Andrew Vaughn Home Run (+500)

Andrew Vaughn's numbers have been off the charts when facing left-handed pitchers this season. He leads all players with 50+ plate appearances against lefties in OPS at 1.284, along with a wRC+ of 251. Tonight, he and the Brewers get to face a left-handed starter in Nick Lodolo of the Cincinnati Reds. He has a 5.59 ERA on the season and has a home run percentage of 3.8%. That could set up Vaughn to be in a great spot to hit a dinger tonight.

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