Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for Miami (OH)-SMU, Prairie View-Lehigh)

One more sleep until the Madness truly begins!

The First Four continues on Wednesday night after two thrilling games kicked off this season’s NCAA Tournament.

The Howard Bison knocked off the UMBC Retrievers by three points before the Texas Longhorns survived a two-point win over the NC State Wolfpack. The only problem? Yesterday’s Daily Dunk picks were 0-2.

The bright side is we have a whole tournament to turn things around, including Wednesday’s First Four action.

A No. 16 seed is on the line between the Prairie View A&M Panthers and the Lehigh Mountain Hawks before the No. 11 matchup between the Miami (OH) RedHawks and SMU Mustangs kicks off. Can the RedHawks prove that they belonged in the NCAA Tournament after losing just one game all season?

Not only do I have picks for both of those games, but I decided to sneak a pick in for one of the eight NIT matchups on Wednesday night.

Let’s dive into the odds and my analysis for each of these picks on March 18.

Best College Basketball Bets for Wednesday, March 18

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Prairie View A&M +3.5 (-112) vs. Lehigh

KenPom has these two teams at No. 284 (Lehigh) and No. 288 (Prairie View A&M) in the 2025-26 season.

Interestingly enough, Bart Torvik’s analytics actually has the Panthers as the favorite in this matchup even though they are 3.5-point underdogs. So, why not take the points on Wednesday?

After watching two games decided by one possession in the First Four on Tuesday, I love having this cushion between these two No. 16 seeds.

Prairie View A&M is No. 311 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency this season, but it can change a game with the crazy pace that it plays at. The Panthers are No. 23 in adjusted tempo and are 45th in the country in opponent turnover rate.

Meanwhile, Lehigh is still 290th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency even though it is 88th in effective field goal percentage.

The Mountain Hawks rely a ton on the 3-ball (38th in opponent 3-point percentage), but the Panthers rank 17th in opponent 3-point rate this season. Ultimately, both of these teams are barely over .500 entering the NCAA Tournament, so I don’t mind getting a full possession on the spread with the Panthers after they shockingly won the SWAC.

SMU -6.5 (-115) vs. Miami (OH)

I’m not going to complain about Miami (OH) making the tournament – in fact I believe it deserves to get in after losing just one game all season – but I’m not buying it to knock off SMU on Wednesday.

The Mustangs likely would’ve been a lock for the tournament had they not dropped their last four games before the ACC Tournament, and SMU still has a pretty solid resume overall.

It ranks 42nd in KenPom, 45th in strength of schedule and is one of the best shooting teams in the country, ranking 26th in effective field goal percentage and 23rd in 3-point percentage.

Miami (OH) also has an impressive offense (70th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency), but it ranks outside the top-150 in adjusted defensive efficiency despite playing the No. 296 strength of schedule in the country.

Miami’s record alone was enough for it to get in, but this is a massive step up in competition for the RedHawks, who just lost to UMass in the MAC quarterfinals.

SMU, on the other hand, lost to No. 6 seed Louisville by just four points in the ACC Tournament. The Mustangs should be able to keep up with Miami’s potent offense, and ultimately the experience against tougher competition should end up shining through for the Mustangs.

Utah Valley Moneyline (-130) vs. George Washington

We’re going to the NIT for this final pick, as there are eight first-round games on Wednesday night before the tournament breaks over the weekend.

The Utah Valley Wolverines lost in heartbreaking fashion to Cal Baptist in the WAC title game, missing an alley-oop dunk in the final seconds to lose. Now, the Wolverines find themselves as favorites in an NIT matchup with the A-10’s George Washington Revolutionaries.

George Washington is 18-15 this season and was two games under .500 in regular-season A-10 play, failing to make a real push for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament.

The Revolutionaries are the No. 85 team in KenPom this season while Utah Valley (No. 90) isn’t that far behind. So, I’m taking the Wolverines to get some revenge for their WAC title loss with a win on Wednesday night.

While these teams have some competing metrics – GW is 59th in adjusted offensive efficiency while Utah Valley is 78th in adjusted defensive efficiency – there are a few things that stand out about this Utah Valley team.

First off, the Wolverines rank 37th in the country in effective field goal percentage and 69th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Utah Valley doesn’t shoot the 3-ball extremely well, but it’s 53rd in offensive rebound rate and shoots over 57 percent from 2.

On defense, Utah Valley is ninth in opponent turnover rate, making up for it being 350th in turnover rate on offense. That could swing this game since the Revs are 263rd in the country in turnover rate on offense.

George Washington takes a ton of 3s – 36th in the country in 3-point rate – but it is taking on a Utah Valley defense that is 18th in the land in opponent 3-point rate. Something has to give in this matchup, and I trust the Wolverines defense against a GW team that is just 5-8 over its last 13 games.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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