Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for St. John’s-Duke, MSU-UConn, More)

The Sweet 16 rolls on with four more matchups on Friday, March 27, and multiple national title contenders are looking to earn a spot in the Elite 8.

The East Region with Duke, St. John’s, UConn and Michigan State could be won by any team, while the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines and No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones are favored in the Midwest Region to meet on Sunday.

Here’s a quick look at Friday’s matchups:

No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 Duke
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UConn
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Iowa State

I’ve decided to bet on three of these games, and I’m eyeing a pair of underdogs in the East. Let’s dive into the odds and analysis for each of these Sweet 16 games!

Best College Basketball Bets for Friday’s Sweet 16 Games

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

St. John’s +6.5 (-108) vs. Duke

The Johnnies are one of my favorite upset picks in the Sweet 16, and I shared why earlier this week for SI Betting:

Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad has defended at a high level all season long, and it may take advantage of the Blue Devils’ backcourt in the Sweet 16.

Caleb Foster’s injury has lowered the ceiling for Duke, and it was nearly upset in the first round against No. 16 Siena.

The Blue Devils rebounded to blow out TCU in the second half of round two, but they are more vulnerable than ever entering the Sweet 16.

St. John’s is eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, and 40th in opponent turnover rate. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils’ biggest weakness comes with the turnover battle, as they are 127th in turnover rate and outside the top-100 in opponent turnover rate this season.

St. John’s just beat a potential No. 1 overall pick in Darryn Peterson, and the Johnnies are a massive step up in class from Duke’s first two opponents. I also think that Pitino’s coaching experience is hard to look past at this stage in the tournament, especially since St. John’s has been on a massive run for weeks, culminating in a Big East title.

Even if St. John’s doesn’t win this game, I love getting it as a 6.5-point dog on Friday since it’s been so dominant on the defensive end.

Michigan State +1.5 (-108) vs. UConn

The Michigan State Spartans and UConn Huskies have been on a collision course in the East Region, and oddsmakers have set this game with the closest spread of any Sweet 16 matchup.

It’s hard not to love what the Spartans have done so far in the NCAA Tournament, and Jeremy Fears is the steady guard that could lead this team on a long run. Meanwhile, UConn has dealt with injuries to Jaylin Stewart and Silas Demary Jr., failing to cover against Furman before pulling away late against UCLA.

UConn should be healthier entering the Sweet 16, but this team is a little too reliant on Tarris Reed for my liking. KenPom actually has the Spartans ahead of the Huskies in the latest rankings, and the MSU is 3-2-1 against the spread as an underdog this season.

Ultimately, UConn’s offense is what draws me away, as it ranks 190th in turnover rate and 133rd in 3-point percentage. If the Huskies can’t pressure Fears and turn over the Spartans, they’re going to have a hard time hanging in.

Michigan State is 39th in the country in 3-point percentage and outranks UConn in free-throw rate and offensive rebound rate this season.

Michigan -9.5 (-105) vs. Alabama

Nate Oats is back in the Sweet 16, but I think it will be a short run for the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend.

The Michigan Wolverines have dominated in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, showing their depth and size in the frontcourt as the ultimate game changer. Alabama is down second-leading scorer Aden Holloway, putting a lot of pressure on this offense since the Crimson Tide are just 60th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency (Michigan is second).

Michigan al has the No. 6 offense – per KenPom – in the country. It should be able to knock off the Crimson Tide, who are 358th in opponent turnover rate and outside the top-100 in opponent 3-point percentage.

Alabama is just 3-4 against the spread when set as an underdog in the 2025-26 season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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