Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for St. John’s-Kansas, Iowa-Florida, Texas Tech-Bama)

The first weekend of March Madness comes to an end on Sunday, but there are still eight games to bet on, starting at 12:10 p.m. EST.

No. 7 Miami vs. No. 2 Purdue
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Iowa State
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 4 Kansas
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 3 Virginia
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 1 Florida
No. 9 Utah State vs. No. 1 Arizona
No. 7 UCLA vs. No. 2 UConn
No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Alabama

On Friday, every single favorite that played ended up winning, including No. 9 seeds Utah State and Iowa. So, there isn’t a single double-digit seed playing on March 22, which could lead to some high-level competition.

Still, a few lower seeds are favored, as the St. John’s Red Storm are favored against the Kansas Jayhawks and the Tennessee Volunteers are small favorites over the No. 3-seeded Virginia Cavaliers.

I’ve examined each game on Sunday’s slate, and I’ve narrowed things down to three bets for the last eight games in the Round of 32.

Let’s dive into each breakdown – and the latest odds – for an exciting fourth day of March Madness.

Best College Basketball Bets for Sunday’s Round of 32 Games

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Florida -10.5 (-110) vs. Iowa

Florida is one of the best teams in the country inside the arc this season, ranking 17th in two-point percentage and fifth in opponent two-point percentage while also posting elite rebound rates (second in offensive rebound rate and seventh in defensive rebound rate).

The front line of Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh is one of the best in the country, and it should get to the rim at will against a Hawkeyes team that is 268th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage.

Iowa only allowed 61 points in the first round, but it ranks 243rd in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage and 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Hawkeyes love to slow the pace (361st in the country in adjusted tempo), but I don’t think that’ll be enough to keep them in this game against a Florida team that is top-10 in the country in KenPom’s offensive and defensive rating.

The Gators may also take the Hawkeyes out of their half-court style, as they rank 29th in the country in adjusted tempo.

Florida really came on in the second half of the season, and it’s an elite defensive team, holding opponents to an eFG% of 45.9 percent (eight in the country). I’ll bet on a Gators blowout on Sunday night.

Alabama-Texas Tech OVER 164.5 (-115)

No team in the country averages more points per game than the Alabama Crimson Tide (91.7), and they didn’t miss a beat in the Round of 64 against Hofstra, scoring 90 points in a 20-point win.

Now, Alabama takes on a Texas Tech team that averages more than 80 points per game this season and is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country.

The Red Raiders are shooting 39.7 percent from beyond the arc, and they are 10th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Alabama is third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and is No.1 in 3-point rate.

The Crimson Tide also play at the fourth-fastest pace in the country, which leads to a ton of high-scoring games. Alabama doesn’t defend very well, ranking 358th in the country in opponent turnover rate and 73rd in opponent effective field goal percentage.

So, there’s gonna be a ton of shot attempts for both sides in this matchup.

The OVER is 17-14-1 in Alabama’s games this season, even though it almost always has sky-high totals. I think we’ll see a shootout on Sunday night.

St. John’s-Kansas UNDER 144.5 (-112)

These are two of the best defensive teams in the country, as Kansas is eighth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency while St. John’s is 11th.

Both teams can score the ball, but Kansas is just 58th in adjusted offensive efficiency, making it a very intriguing UNDER team this season.

The Johnnies like to play frantic – and fast – ranking 69th in the country in adjusted tempo, but they combined for just 132 points in their first round matchup, holding Northern Iowa to 53 points. Kansas had just 128 combined points against Cal Baptist, allowing just 60 points.

Both of these defenses are elite at limiting their opponents’ shooting, as Kansas ranks fourth in opponent effective field goal percentage while St. John’s is 24th. Since both teams are just average offensively, I think the defenses will shine on Sunday.

The UNDER is 23-11 in Kansas’ games this season and 22-12 in the Johnnies’ games. This total is a touch too high at 144.5 on Sunday evening.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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