Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for UConn vs. Duke, Tennessee vs. Michigan)

A spot in the Final Four is on the line for four teams on Sunday, as two No. 1 seeds look to join Arizona in and Illinois in Indianapolis.

Sunday’s action begins with No. 6 Tennessee looking to continue a miracle run against the No. 1-seeded Michigan Wolverines. Michigan is loaded with talent and is coming off a Sweet 16 win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in dominant fashion.

Then, in the second game, two blue blood programs face off as the No. 2 UConn Huskies take on the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils. Oddsmakers have set Duke as the favorite in this game, but Dan Hurley has made two of the last three Final Fours and has his team peaking at the right time.

As the SI Betting team has done all tournament long, I’ve made a pick for both of these games for our Daily Dunk column – where we share the day’s best college basketball bets.

Here’s a breakdown of each play for Sunday’s Elite 8 showdowns.

Best College Basketball Bets for Sunday’s Elite 8 Games

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

UConn +4.5 (-108) vs. Duke

The Blue Devils have failed to cover the spread in two of their three games so far in this tournament, and I once again think they’re on upset alert on Sunday.

The Huskies are a battle-tested team with veterans like Alex Karaban, Solo Ball, Tarris Reed and Silas Demary, and they held off a tough Michigan State team in the Sweet 16.

UConn is the No. 9 defense in the country, according to KenPom, and it has the size with Reed down low to make things tough on Cameron Boozer in this matchup.

The Huskies have not been underdogs in a game all season long, so I can’t pass up this chance to grab them as more than a possession dog on Sunday.

Duke’s advanced numbers are great (fifth in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, per KenPom), but it has not looked great offensively for five of the six halves that it’s played in this tournament. That’s going to be a problem against a UConn team that has championship equity and loves to slow the pace (No. 320 in adjusted tempo).

Duke – like Michigan State – ranks outside the top-100 in turnover rate and opponent turnover rate this season. That should allow the Huskies to mask their biggest issue this season (191st in turnover rate) to a degree in this Elite 8 matchup.

I’ll take the points in a game that should go down to the wire on Sunday night.

Tennessee-Michigan UNDER 146.5 (-110)

The Volunteers have made an impressive run to the Elite 8 behind one of the best defenses in the country, but they face their toughest test on Sunday against the Wolverines.

Michigan is No. 2 in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, and it has hit the UNDER in 22 of 37 games this season.

So far in this tournament, Tennessee has combined for 134, 151 and 138 points, holding Miami (OH) to just 56 points in the first round and Iowa State to just 62 points in the Sweet 16.

The Wolverines are a step up in class, but Michigan just kept the highest-scoring offense in college basketball – the Alabama Crimson Tide – to just 77 points in the Sweet 16.

The Wolverines like to push the pace (No. 25 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom), but Tennessee clashes with that style, ranking 297th in adjusted tempo. So, if the Volunteers can slow things down early, it may bring the UNDER into play right away on Sunday.

These squads are third (Michigan) and 27th (Tennessee) in opponent effective field goal percentage and both rank outside the top-200 in opponent turnover rate. So, there may not be a ton of easy baskets in transition on Sunday.

I like Michigan to win this game, but I don’t love laying 7.5 points after the Volunteers dominated Iowa State in the Sweet 16. So, let’s take the UNDER with two elite defenses facing off on Sunday afternoon.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.