Best College Football Bets Today (Predictions for Miami vs. Ole Miss, Carson Beck)

Breaking down the best bets for the Miami vs. Ole Miss matchup in the College Football Playoff semifinals.

The Ole Miss Rebels and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss are underdogs on Thursday. / Ayrton Breckenridge/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A trip to the National Championship is on the line, as the Miami Hurricanes and Carson Beck take on the Ole Miss Rebels and Trinidad Chambliss in an unexpected semifinal matchup.

Miami upset No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 2 Ohio State to reach the semifinals, allowing just 17 total points over the course of those two games. Despite being a massive underdog to the Buckeyes in the quarterfinal, Miami won by 10 points, rallying behind an early pick-six to win. 

As for Ole Miss, it has battled a ton of adversity to get to this point.

The Rebels have lost head coach Lane Kiffin and several assistants to LSU, creating a major saga before the College Football Playoff began. However, Trinidad Chambliss has rallied his team, having a career game against Georgia in the quarterfinal to pull off a 39-34 win. 

Now, the Rebels find themselves as underdogs once again in this matchup with Miami.

Here’s a look at the best bets for this game from the SI Betting team! 

Best College Football Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Ole Miss +3.5 (-118) vs. Miami Hurricanes – Iain MacMillan
• Miami-Ole Miss UNDER 52.5 (-112) – Peter Dewey
• Carson Beck UNDER 235.5 Passing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

Ole Miss +3.5 (-118) vs. Miami Hurricanes – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet in this matchup in our betting preview, and he’s taking the Rebels to cover the spread as underdogs: 

You can run the ball against this Ole Miss defense, but unfortunately for the Hurricanes, they are a pass-first team, which means they can't attack Ole Miss where the Rebels are vulnerable. That means for the third straight week, Ole Miss is going to have the advantage when it comes to the stylistic matchup.

Miami ranks outside the top 15 in both opponent EPA per dropback and opponent dropback success rate, which could lead to yet another strong performance by Trinidad Chambliss, the Ole Miss quarterback.

There are a lot of unknowns in this game, but it's clear at this point we shouldn't discount Ole Miss just because of its coaching situation. I'll take the points with the Rebels in this one.

Miami-Ole Miss UNDER 52.5 (-112) – Peter Dewey

Even though Ole Miss would love to play an up-and-down game on offense, I think this total is way too high against a Miami team that is elite on the defensive side of the ball. 

The Hurricanes are 18th in the country in EPA/Play and 17th in defensive success rate. They’ve allowed just 17 points in the College Football Playoff so far and scored a defensive touchdown against No. 2 Ohio State in the semifinals. 

So, I wouldn’t be shocked if offense is at a premium in this game, especially since Ole Miss is 20th in EPA/Play defensively this season. 

The weakest part of the Ole Miss team is their run defense, which happens to be where Miami struggles the most on offense (105th in EPA/Rush). 

While Chambliss has been awesome this season, I don’t see this game reaching 50 combined points.

Carson Beck UNDER 235.5 Passing Yards (-114) – Peter Dewey

It sure feels like Miami is trying to limit mistakes by Carson Beck so far in the College Football Playoff.

After clearing 235.5 passing yards in nine games in the regular season, Beck has not thrown the ball nearly as much in the playoff, attempting 20 and 26 passes in his two games while throwing for 103 and 138 yards. 

Miami was up against Ohio State and wanted to burn clock, but the game against Texas A&M is concerning, as the Hurricanes could have used an insurance score or two, yet Beck averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt.

Ole Miss ranks 20th in the country in EPA/Pass and 12th in defensive success rate on passing plays this season. So, I don’t expect Beck to suddenly be able to rip it all over the field in this game.

If Miami continues to play conservative on offense, Beck is going to fall short of this number on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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