Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Bet on Josh Naylor, Lars Nootbaar)

There may not be a more exciting player prop to bet when it comes to Major League Baseball than an anytime home run pick.

So, every day at SI Betting, we share our favorite picks to go deep, which usually can pay out at some pretty favorable prices.

Now, hitting a home-run bet can be tough, but there are plenty of ways to analyze this market from ballpark factors to pitching matchups (lefty or right) to how batters have historically fared against a specific starter.

On Monday, we failed to hit a home run prop – even though Tyler O’Neill went 4-for-4 at the dish. Can Tuesday bring a bounce-back day?

Here are the players that I’m eyeing to leave the yard on Tuesday night.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, April 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Josh Naylor to Hit a Home Run (+750)
Lars Nootbaar to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Josh Naylor to Hit a Home Run (+750)

This is a longshot based on the odds, but Josh Naylor is off to a fast start this season with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The left-handed slugger is hitting 6-for-15 with three runs batted in, yet he hasn’t left the yard in 2025.

I think that could change against New York Yankees starter Will Warren, who finished the 2024 season with a 10.72 ERA and allowed five homers in six outings (five starts).

Naylor crushes right-handed pitching, posting an OPS over .800, a slugging percentage of .471 (100 points higher than it is against lefties) and 70 homers against righties in his career.

This is a great matchup against a youngster like Warren, and Naylor would net us a pretty solid payout if he goes deep tonight.

Lars Nootbaar to Hit a Home Run (+600)

On Monday, Lars Nootbaar hit his second home run in four games for the St. Louis Cardinals, and I’m buying him in a favorable matchup on Tuesday night.

Nootbaar gets to face Los Angeles Angels starter Kyle Hendricks, a pitcher that he’s seen a lot from when Hendricks was a Chicago Cub. Nootbaar is hitting .375 against Hendricks in his career.

Meanwhile, the soft-throwing righty has been a home run bettors dream in recent seasons, allowing 21 homers in 29 outings last season while posting a 5.92 ERA. Nootbaar is much better as a power hitter against right-handed pitching in his career, posting a slugging percentage of .436 while hitting 40 of his 46 career homers against righties.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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