Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Bryce Harper, Elly De La Cruz, Jordan Walker)

Looking to bet a home run prop on Tuesday? Here’s a breakdown of three players that could leave the yard during the15-game slate on Tuesday.

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper is a solid prop target on Tuesday. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

All 30 MLB teams are back in action on Tuesday, May 5, and there are a bunch of star players to consider in the home run market.

Every day at SI Betting, we share our favorite home run props, and I’m eyeing Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper to lead the way on Tuesday in a favorable matchup with the A’s and right-hander Luis Severino. 

Betting on home run props can be lucrative, but they’re also tough to predict on a night-to-night basis. Usually, I target struggling starter pitchers – or favorable pitching matchups – that also coincide with some favorable odds.

On Tuesday, there is a +525 bet and a +458 bet for two NL Central stars that could be worth a look. 

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each of these home run picks on May 5. 

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, May 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+356)

Bryce Harper has been red hot over the last two weeks for the Philadelphia Phillies, hitting .265 with three homers and a .881 OPS. Those numbers are even better over the last week, as he’s homered once in his last six games while posting a .320 batting average and a 1.033 OPS.

So, I’m buying him at this price on Tuesday against the A’s, who are starting righty Luis Severino (4.46 ERA).

Severino has struggled against Harper in his career, allowing two home runs to the two-time MVP in just five at-bats. This season, Harper is hitting .295 against right-handed pitching with four of his seven home runs.

So, I think this is a pretty favorable matchup against Severino, who has already given up four long balls in the 2026 season. 

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+458)

Cincinnati Reds star Elly De La Cruz has displayed some impressive power in 2026, hitting 10 home runs through his first 35 games. Cruz has a .911 OPS, and he’s been effective from both sides of the plate, homering five times against right-handed pitching and five times against left-handed pitching.

Now, he takes on Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon, who is struggling to start the 2026 season. Taillon has a 4.41 ERA and has allowed nine home runs in six appearances. In fact, the Cubs righty has just one start all season where he didn't allow a long ball. 

Cruz has crushed Taillon in his career, going 5-for-14 with a double, two home runs and a 1.257 OPS. So, at north of 4/1, the Reds shortstop is a pretty solid value bet on Tuesday. 

Cruz has also been hot as of late, hitting .333 with four homers and a 1.045 OPS over his last 12 games. 

Jordan Walker to Hit a Home Run (+525)

St. Louis Cardinals youngster Jordan Walker has been one of the breakout stars in the 2026 season, hitting .308 with 10 homers and a .961 OPS. 

He’s crushed right-handed pitching, hitting .320 with seven home runs, and the Cardinals outfielder has a .429 batting average with two homers over the last week. So, I think he’s insanely mispriced at +525 against the Milwaukee Brewers and young righty Brandon Sproat.

This season, Sproat has a 6.75 ERA, and he’s allowed seven home runs in just six appearances. He’s never faced Walker in his career, but the Cardinals star has been one of the more dangerous bats in the National League early on in the 2026 campaign.

At this price, Walker is a no-brainer in the home run market on Tuesday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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