Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Francisco Lindor, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.)

Tuesday’s Major League Baseball action features 28 of the 30 teams, giving bettors and fans tons of players to choose from when it comes to the home run prop market.

Early on in the 2026 season, there are a few things that I’m looking at when deciding these home run picks.

First off, I’m targeting players that are historically strong home run hitters, especially if they’re in a favorable matchup. For example, a player like Detroit Tigers slugger Riley Greene (who isn’t a part of today’s picks) is a much better home run hitter against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching, making it a lot easier to consider him tonight (which I did) against Arizona righty Brandon Pfaadt.

In addition to that, I’m eyeing players that are off to a fast start in the 2026 campaign, as we may be able to ride an early hot streak to a few home run wins.

Lastly, I’m fading pitchers who have historically given up a lot of home runs, especially those that struggled in the 2025 season.

So, that’s led to three selections for Tuesday night’s action, including picks for All-Stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Francisco Lindor. Here’s a look at the odds and the analysis behind these home run props!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, March 31

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+354)

Toronto Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is off to a nice start this season even though he’s yet to hit a home run. Vladdy Jr. is 4-for-10 for the Jays with an OPS of .971 heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the Colorado Rockies.

Colorado scored 14 runs in an upset win over the Jays on Monday, but it also allowed five runs in that matchup. The Rockies had the worst team ERA in MLB last season, and they’ll have righty Ryan Feltner (5.19 career ERA) on the mound in this game.

Last season, Feltner allowed four homers in six appearances, and he has given up 45 home runs in 67 career starts. Not only that, but the righty has a shaky bullpen behind him, as the Rockies’ pen has allowed four homers already this season despite posting a solid 3.94 ERA.

That sets up well for Guerrero, who has at least 23 home runs in each of the last five seasons. I like him at this price on Monday night.

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+434)

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor is hitting just .214 early on in the 2026 season, but he has a favorable matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday.

Lindor is taking on righty Andre Pallante, who he has dominated so far in his career. The All-Star middle infielder is hitting .462 against Pallante (6-for-13), though he has yet to take him yard.

Pallante gave up 21 home runs in 31 appearances last season, posting a 5.31 ERA in the process. So, Lindor is a pretty solid target with his odds set north of 4/1 on Tuesday.

I also like this matchup since St. Louis' bullpen has struggled early on this season, allowing 26 hits and 10 walks while posting a 7.94 ERA.

Colt Keith to Hit a Home Run (+516)

A little long shot bet to close out the night?

Detroit Tigers infielder Colt Keith is off to a fast start in the 2026 season, hitting .444 (4-for-9) with a 1.101 OPS.

He’s yet to leave the yard, but at +516, he’s a steal on Tuesday night.

Keith is taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Brandon Pfaadt, who had an ERA of 5.25 last season, allowing 26 home runs in 33 appearances.

In his young MLB career, Keith has crushed right-handed pitching, putting together a .260/.325/.410 slash line with 25 of his 26 career home runs. He’s hit 13 home runs in each of his last two seasons, and I think this is a great matchup for him considering how well he’s fared at the plate to open 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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