Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target James Wood, Yankees Slugger, Pirates Rookie)

Looking to kick off the week with a few home run props?

All MLB season long, the SI Betting team shares our top home run props of the day and Monday’s shortened 12-game slate is no different.

Betting on home run props can be tricky, but they are a fun way to root for the most exciting play in baseball while potentially landing a solid pay out. Our goal is to give out a winner each day in our Daily Dinger column by targeting hot hitters, favorable pitching matchups and ballparks that may give certain sluggers an advantage.

On Monday, I’m targeting All-Star James Wood to highlight these home run picks, as he’ll take on a struggling veteran in Max Scherzer. In addition to Wood, there is a former league MVP and a rising rookie to consider on July 27.

Let’s dive right into the odds and analysis behind each of these prop picks with a bunch of new series beginning on Monday.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Monday, July 27

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Esmerlyn Valdez to Hit a Home Run (+405)

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Esmerlyn Valdez has put together a strong 2026 season after making his debut in late May. He’s hit 14 home runs in 37 games (33 starts), and he’s posted a .293 batting average and 1.092 OPS in the process.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in MLB, and Valdez has become an extremely important bat in the lineup, hitting cleanup during this recent hot stretch. The rookie is hitting .309 with nine homers over the last 28 days (22 games), and he’s homered seven times against both right-handed and left-handed pitching.

That makes him pretty matchup proof, and I love this prop for him (at +405) against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly.

The veteran right-hander has struggled in 2026, posting a 5.12 ERA while allowing 22 home runs in 18 outings. I think Valdez is undervalued in this matchup especially since Kelly has allowed at least one homer in five straight outings.

Paul Goldschmidt to Hit a Home Run (+426)

New York Yankees slugger Paul Goldschmidt has dominated left-handed pitching in the 2026 season, and the 2022 NL MVP has a favorable matchup against Chicago White Sox lefty Noah Schultz on Monday.

This season, Schultz has allowed nine home runs in 12 outings, posting a 6.04 ERA in the process. After a strong start to the season, Schultz has allowed a home run in six consecutive outings, and his ERA has ballooned from 2.53 to 6.04 over his last eight appearances.

In 2026, Goldschmidt is hitting .333 with a 1.066 OPS and nine of his 16 home runs against left-handed pitching. He only has one homer since the All-Star break, but he should continue to see consistent at-bats with Cody Bellinger going down for the Yankees over the weekend with a hamstring injury.

New York needs all the offense it can get, and Goldy has been arguably the team's best hitter against lefties in 2026. At +426, he’s a great bet against the struggling Schultz.

James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+205)

Wood has been one of the best hitters in MLB this season, posting a .271 batting average, .953 OPS and 30 home runs across 106 games.

He’s homered 21 times against right-handed pitching, and now he’ll take on Toronto Blue Jays veteran Max Scherzer – a former National – on Monday.

Scherzer has been awful in six appearances in 2026, posting a 10.23 ERA while allowing nine home runs. He’s given up multiple long balls in back-to-back outings, so Wood and the vaunted Washington offense should put up a crooked number while Scherzer is in the game on Monday.

Wood has yet to face Scherzer in his career, but the two-time All-Star has homered 10 times in his last 21 games, posting a .325 batting average during that stretch. I expect him to stay hot on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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