Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Jazz Chisholm, Max Muncy, Junior Caminero)

Monday’s Major League Baseball action doesn’t feature all 30 teams, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t bet on some home run props.

There are some intriguing matchups on Monday night, including two AL East division rivalry games between the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles wrapping up a series with the New York Yankees.

Yankees star Jazz Chisholm is starting to rebound after a slow start to the campaign, and he may be worth a look in the prop market on Monday against right-hander Shane Baz.

Plus, there is a National League slugger that I’m targeting against the worst bullpen in MLB.

Let’s dive into the odds and my predictions behind each of these plays on May 4!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+309)

Rays slugger Junior Caminero has nine home runs this season, and he’s hitting .289 with five homers over the last two weeks.

So, he’s certainly heating up with the summer approaching, and now he takes on a struggling left-hander in Toronto’s Eric Lauer. This season, Lauer has allowed seven home runs in six appearances, posting a 6.00 ERA in the process.

Caminero has two home runs in 28 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, and he’s 1-for-3 with a double in his career against Lauer. Caminero also has a .917 OPS against lefties in the 2026 season (.854 OPS overall).

He’s worth a short at north of 3/1 odds in this rivalry matchup.

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+482)

Chisholm got off to a terrible start in 2026, but the Yankees second baseman has turned things around as of late.

He’s hitting .289 with three home runs and an .842 OPS over the last two weeks, pushing his average against right-handed pitchers to .232 this season. Those numbers aren’t great, but Chisholm has crushed Baltimore starter Shane Baz in his career.

He’s 5-for-7 with a double, a home run and a 2.000 OPS against Baz, who has given up three homers this season and allowed 26 homers in 31 starts in 2025.

I’ll bet on Chisholm at this favorable price against a pitcher he’s dominated so far in this career.

Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Los Angeles Dodgers star Max Muncy is off to a fast start in 2026, hitting .300 with nine home runs and a .985 OPS. Muncy is hitting .395 with three home runs over the last two weeks, making him an intriguing target in Monday’s matchup with the Houston Astros.

Houston is going with a bullpen game, and that’s a great sign for the Dodgers’ offense.

The Astros rank dead last in MLB in bullpen ERA (6.20), and their ‘pen has a WHIP of 1.66 while allowing a league-high 29 home runs.

Muncy is hitting .286 against righties with six homers, but he’s also hit lefties well, posting a .346 batting average with three long balls in 26 at-bats. He’s my favorite target on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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