Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Ketel Marte, Matt McLain)

There are a couple of teams closing in on 20 home runs (as a team) already in the 2025 season, and that means there are plenty of chances each night to cash in on a home run prop.

With only five games in action on Thursday – including three afternoon starts – I’ve narrowed down my picks to two players that I think are in a good spot to go deep today.

One of those players is Arizona Diamondbacks All-Star Ketel Marte, as he’s yet to hit a homer this season but has an elite matchup tonight.

Let’s break down these picks for April 3!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, April 3

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+400)
Matt McLain to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Ketel Marte to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Marte hasn't hit a homer yet this season after smacking 36 in the 2024 campaign, but he’s still hitting an impressive .292/.433/.375 in the 2025 season. Marte has worked a bunch of walks, but I think he’s going to see a few pitches to hit early on in this one.

The Yankees are sending veteran starter Carlos Carrasco to the mound, and he allowed five hits, three runs and one homer across two innings in his first start of the season. Carrasco has struggled with the long ball in recent seasons, allowing nearly one per start:

2023: 18 homers allowed in 20 starts
2024: 19 homers allowed in 21 starts

There are a lot of Arizona hitters to consider, including the red-hot Eugenio Suarez (five homers this season), but Marte is a solid target as well with the short porch in Yankee Stadium inviting him to poke one out.

Matt McLain to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s Best MLB Prop Bets column – Painting Corners – why Matt McLain’s fast start to the season could continue tonight:

This is a bit of a longshot bet, but Cincinnati Reds infielder Matt McLain already has three homers so far in the 2025 season.

Now, he gets to face Milwaukee Brewers lefty Nestor Cortes, who allowed five homers in two innings of work in his season debut against the New York Yankees.

Cortes struggled with the long ball last season as well, giving up 24 homers in 31 outings. He’s certainly a tough player to trust, the Brewers have a 7.81 ERA – the worst in MLB – as a team this season.

McLain has two homers against right-handed pitching and one against left-handed pitching this season, although he’s only had four at-bats against lefties so far.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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