Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Oneil Cruz, Mike Trout, Tigers Star)

Make it three days in a row with a winner in Daily Dinger, as New York Mets star Juan Soto came through with not one, but two home runs on Wednesday night against the Washington Nationals.

Soto (+289), Rafael Devers (+449) and Cody Bellinger (+484) have come through over the last three days, and I’m looking to carry the momentum into a shortened slate on Thursday, May 21.

Now, today’s action doesn’t feature a ton of home-run prone pitchers, as the starter with the most homers allowed in 2026 is A’s righty Luis Severino (seven homers allowed).

I’m fading Severino on Thursday, but there are a couple of long shot bets that I’m also considering, including a +740 play for a Detroit Tigers All-Star.

Here’s a breakdown of each of the home run props for Thursday, May 21!

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, May 21

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+342)

This season, Los Angeles Angeles star Mike Trout has 12 home runs and an .878 OPS, though he’s been slumping as of late, hitting under .200 over the last week of action.

Still, I’m buying Trout at this number against A’s starter Luis Severino, who has given up seven homers in 10 appearances this season, posting a 4.45 ERA in the process.

Trout has fared pretty well against Severino in his career, going 3-for-7 (.429) with a double, a homer, two walks and a 1.556 OPS. The Angels star is a threat to go deep just about every night, and I’ll bet on him to break out of his slump on Thursday.

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+740)

Two-time All-Star Riley Greene has homered just four times in the 2026 season, but he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball. Greene is hitting .333 in the 2026 season, including an impressive .370 batting average against left-handed pitching.

So, I’m buying him against Cleveland Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo, who has given up six home runs in 10 starts, posting a 3.40 ERA and a 4.36 Fielding Independent Pitching.

Greene is 1-for-2 against Cantillo in his career, and the Tigers star is hitting an insane .452 over the last two weeks. The power hasn’t really been there, but at +740, Greene is worth a look since he seems to be a threat to get at least a hit every night.

Oneil Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+509)

Pittsburgh Pirates star Oneil Cruz has only three at-bats against St. Louis Cardinals righty Dustin May in his career, but he took him yards in one of those matchups.

So, I’m taking a shot on Cruz at +509 in Thursday’s afternoon showdown.

Cruz is hitting .286 over the last two weeks with one home run, but he’s homered six times against right-handed pitching and has a .784 OPS in the 2026 campaign.

Those numbers aren’t great, but Cruz has some serious power and is hitting .464 on batted balls in play over the last two weeks.

May has only given up four home runs in nine appearances this season, but he’s also posted a 4.81 ERA. I think Cruz is worth a bet at this price in this series finale.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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