Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Juan Soto, Junior Caminero, Rangers Slugger)

Wednesday’s MLB action gets underway with a few afternoon matchups, and I’m targeting two of them for today’s best home run prop picks.

Can yours truly go three days in a row with a home run prop hit?

Cody Bellinger (+484) came through on Monday night before Rafael Devers (+449) homered on Tuesday night to keep the streak going. I also targeted New York Mets star Juan Soto on Monday, and while he didn’t come through in that game, I’m going back to the well on Wednesday with the Washington Nationals starting Zack Littell against New York.

Betting on home run props can be tricky, but as we’ve seen this week, hitting just a couple of winners can put you way up for the week. That’s not the case every week, but I’m hoping that I have a hot hand heading into Wednesday’s action.

So, here’s a breakdown of the odds and analysis behind each of today’s home run bets.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Wednesday, May 20

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Josh Jung to Hit a Home Run (+505)

Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung is hitting .298 with five homers in the 2026 season, though most of his damage has been done against right-handed pitching.

Despite that, I like Jung at +505 against Colorado Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, who has been rocked in every start since he came off the injured list. Freeland has a 7.22 ERA this season, and he’s allowed four or more runs in four straight starts, including six or more runs in every outing in the month of May.

Freeland ranks in the 15th percentile in expected ERA, the sixth percentile in expected batting average against and the 40th percentile in ground-ball percentage. He’s allowed seven home runs in eight outings.

To top it off, Jung is 3-for-5 with a home run and a 1.800 OPS against Freeland in his career. The Rangers third baseman is a steal at this price, especially since Colorado’s bullpen has also struggled to limit home runs, giving up 27 in 2026.

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+342)

Baltimore Orioles starter Shane Baz gets to face his former team – the Tampa Bay Rays – on Wednesday afternoon, and I think Baz is a prime fade candidate in this matchup.

This season, the O’s righty has allowed six home runs in nine starts, posting a 5.26 ERA in the process. Baz ranks in the 25th percentile in expected ERA and the 24th percentile in ground-ball percentage. So, the Rays should be able to lift the ball on Wednesday afternoon.

Enter: Junior Caminero.

The Rays star has 13 home runs in the 2026 season, and he’s hitting .318 with a pair of homers over the last week. Caminero also has 10 home runs against right-handed pitching, and he and the rest of the Tampa roster is pretty familiar with what Baz brings to the table.

Even though this price isn’t super intriguing, Caminero is one of the best power bats on the board on May 20.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+289)

Juan Soto is hitting .370 with three home runs over the last seven days, and he continues to wreak havoc against right-handed pitching.

Soto has a .342 batting average, six home runs and 1.073 OPS against righties, and he’s facing one of the worst right-handers in MLB in Littell on Wednesday night.

Littell has given up 14 home runs in nine starts this season, posting a 6.10 ERA in the process. His advanced numbers aren’t any better, as he sits in the first percentile in expected ERA, the third percentile in expected batting average against the fifth percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 26th percentile in ground-ball percentage.

So, Soto and the Mets should have a field day at the plate, and they’ve scored 22 runs in two games already in this series. Plus, after Littell, the Nationals have a shaky bullpen (4.96 ERA) that has already given up 34 homers in 2026.

The Mets star has a homer and a double in nine at-bats against Littell in his career, and I can’t pass up Soto during this recent hot stretch. He’s 4-for-9 in this series and hit his seventh homer of the season on Tuesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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