Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Shohei Ohtani, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Tigers Slugger)

Tuesday’s MLB action features 16 games as the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Guardians will start things off with an afternoon matchup as part of their doubleheader.

So, there are a ton of options to consider in the prop market, especially when it comes to potential home run prop targets. Betting on home run props is a fun way to stay engaged during the MLB season, even though they aren’t the easiest to hit.

At SI Betting, we recommend a few home run props a day, though it’s smart to only place small wagers on these long shot picks.

On Tuesday, I’m targeting three All-Stars to leave the yard, including Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, who may be able to break out of his slump in a matchup with the Seattle Mariners.

Let’s examine the latest odds behind each of these home run picks on July 28.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Tuesday, July 28

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Dillon Dingler to Hit a Home Run (+432)

Detroit Tigers All-Star Dillon Dingler has been a home-run machine in the 2026 season, going deep 22 times in 98 games (92 starts).

Dingler has done the majority of his damage against right-handed pitching, posting a .286 batting average and .926 OPS while homering 18 times. The 27-year-old has been red hot as of late, homering three times over the last two weeks (10 starts) while posting a .378 batting average and 1.180 OPS.

Now, he takes on Baltimore Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer, who has allowed 10 home runs in six appearances, posting a 5.06 ERA in the process. Kremer has only made one appearance where he didn’t allow a long ball in 2026.

Dingler is just 1-or-5 against Kremer in his career, but that one hit was a home run. The Tigers catcher is worth a look to keep his hot streak going on Tuesday.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+219)

Ohtani has a pretty favorable matchup on Tuesday night against Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo, and it may help him break out of the slump he’s been in since the All-Star break.

The Dodgers star is hitting just .184 without a home run in his last nine games, but he’s crushed Castillo in his career. In 11 at-bats against the former All-Star, Ohtani is 4-for-11 with two doubles, a home run and a 1.280 OPS.

Castillo has struggled in the 2026 campaign, posting a 4.85 ERA while allowing 15 home runs in 19 appearances. The Mariners have used Castillo both as a starter and a reliever, yet he hasn’t been able to find his All-Star form.

Over his last two outings, Castillo has allowed five home runs, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Ohtani and this Dodgers offense pounces on him on Tuesday night.

Pete Crow-Armstrong to Hit a Home Run (+421)

Chicago Cubs All-Star Pete Crow-Armstrong is hitting .409 with a pair of home runs in the last week (six games), and he’s looking to keep that streak going against the St. Louis Cardinals and right-hander Michael McGreevy on Tuesday.

This season, PCA has 18 home runs, a .290 batting average and an OPS north of .900 against right-handed pitching, and he’s homered 23 times overall. One of the best all-around players in baseball, Crow-Armstrong has a 1.119 OPS and six homers over the last four weeks (21 games), and he should stay hot in this matchup.

McGreevy has given up 15 home runs in 20 appearances this season, and he sits in the ninth percentile in expected ERA, the sixth percentile in expected BAA and the 14th percentile in barrel percentage.

I expect him to struggle against a surging Cubs lineup, and St. Louis’ bullpen (4.37 ERA) isn’t all that great. This is lining up as an ideal matchup for Crow-Armstrong to hit his 24th homer of the season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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