Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Jalen Williams, Bam Adebayo, Jalen Johnson)

An NBA prop bettor’s paradise exists on Wednesday night, as there are 14 games to dive into with the All-Star break just a few days away.

There are a bunch of interesting matchups to consider, and I’ve narrowed things down to my five favorite plays, including picks for stars like Jalen Williams, Jalen Johnson and Denver Nuggets MVP candidate Nikola Jokic.

Plus, there are a couple of big men that could be in line for big games against struggling Western Conference teams on Wednesday.

Here’s a look at the latest odds and my breakdowns for each of the prop plays on Feb. 11.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Feb. 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jalen Williams OVER 18.5 Points (-121)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains out of the lineup on Wednesday night, which could lead to a big-scoring game from Jalen Williams, who returned from a hamstring issue on Monday.

Williams is likely going to remain on a minutes restriction in this game, but his usage was way up on Monday with both SGA and Ajay Mitchell (out again tonight) sidelined.

Williams took 17 shots in 24:22 of action, and he also went 11-for-13 from the free-throw line.

While the Phoenix Suns are a much better defensive team than the Los Angeles Lakers, it's going to be hard to fade Williams in this prop if he comes close to 20 shot attempts again on Wednesday.

The star forward is averaging 17.1 points per game this season, but he's spent most of the season playing as the No. 2 option to SGA in the offense. Now, Williams has a chance to operate as the clear-cut go-to guy on offense, and he's thrived in that role in his career.

Williams is averaging 22.1 points, 5.9 assists and 4.6 rebounds in 19 games without SGA in his career, scoring 19 or more points in 15 of those games.

Bam Adebayo OVER 21.5 Points (-108)

The Miami Heat are extremely short-handed on Wednesday night against the New Orleans Pelicans, as Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Pelle Larsson are out while Andrew Wiggins is questionable.

That leaves a ton of shots open for Bam Adebayo, who is averaging 21.8 points per game over his last 16 games. During that stretch, the star big man has scored 22 or more points nine times.

The Pelicans are just 27th in the NBA in defensive rating and 23rd in opponent points in the paint per game, making this a pretty solid matchup for Adebayo, who should see his shot usage increase with Herro and Powell out.

Bam has not shot the ball particularly well this season (44.6 percent from the field, 34.2 percent from 3), but his 3-point shot is starting to improve, as he’s knocked down 37.3 percent of his attempts over his last 16 games.

I think he’s worth a look on volume alone in this matchup.

Dylan Cardwell OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-119)

Sacramento Kings rookie Dylan Cardwell had his contract converted to a standard deal – and for good reason.

Cardwell is averaging 5.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game this season, and he’s really come on in extended minutes as of late, grabbing 11 or more rebounds in four games in a row. Now, he takes on a Utah Jazz team that ranks 21st in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game with several players out for Sacramento.

Russell Westbrook, Domantas Sabonis, De’Andre Hunter, Zach LaVine, Keegan Murray and Malik Monk are all out tonight, giving Cardwell a path to an expanded role.

Cardwell has cleared this line seven times this season, and he’s averaging 8.8 boards per game over his last 19 matchups despite playing just 22.6 minutes per game.

He should be in the mix for a double-digit rebounding game tonight.

Jalen Johnson UNDER 10.5 Rebounds (-140)

This season, Atlanta Hawks star Jalen Johnson is averaging nearly 11 boards per game, but he's only cleared this line once in three meetings against the Charlotte Hornets, finishing with eight, 11 and nine boards.

Charlotte ranks second in the NBA in rebound percentage this season (behind only the Houston Rockets), and with Johnson dealing with a knee issue, he may not play his usual minutes on Wednesday.

The star forward had just nine boards in almost 40 minutes against Charlotte on Feb. 7, and it's worth noting that teams are averaging just 39.4 rebounds per game against this Hornets squad -- the fewest in the NBA.

With this line still at 10.5, I think the UNDER is worth a look for Johnson tonight.

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jokic is a great bet to get his 20th triple-double of the season:

This pick started with the fact that I really love Jokic's assist prop against this Memphis defense, but taking him to get 10 dimes (-164) isn't nearly as good of a price as getting him to record a fourth triple-double in a row (-137) on Wednesday.

This season, Jokic has 19 triple-doubles in 38 games, and he's scored at least 10 points in every game. So, we're really only worried about his rebound and assist props on Wednesday.

Memphis ranks 19th in the NBA in opponent assists per game and 23rd in opponent rebounds per game heading into this matchup. The Grizzlies gutted their roster at the deadline, trading away Jaren Jackson Jr., and they're without big men like Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke and Santi Aldama on Wednesday.

Jokic should have a field day against this Memphis team that is 29th in defensive rating and 25th in rebound percentage over its last 10 games. With the Nuggets needing a win, I'd expect Jokic to clear 30 minutes for the fifth game in a row, giving him a chance to stuff the stat sheet at home.

Over this six-game stretch since he returned, Jokic is averaging an insane 24.2 points, 12.7 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game despite being on a minutes restriction. Overall, he’s averaging a triple-double in the 2025-26 campaign.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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