Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Joel Embiid, Dillon Brooks, Anthony Edwards)

Looking for some player props for the NBA action on Thursday night?

A massive eight-game slate is set to take place on Jan. 29, and there are a ton of players to consider in the prop market from Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid to Oklahoma City Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

I’ve chosen two starts – one of them happens to be Embiid – to have big games on Thursday night, but there are also two secondary players that could have bigger roles with All-Stars out of the lineup.

I’m fading one of those role players while backing another to continue a strong scoring stretch.

Let’s examine the odds and why each of these players is worth a bet in the prop market on Thursday night.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Jan. 29

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Joel Embiid OVER 29.5 Points (-108)

This season, Embiid is averaging 25.2 points per game, but that number is soaring in the month of January.

In 12 appearances, Embiid is averaging 28.3 points per game while shooting 53.6 percent from the field. The star center has scored 30 or more points in four of his last five games, and he has an extremely favorable matchup with the Sacramento Kings on Thursday night.

Sacramento ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating and 29th in opponent points in the paint per game this season. The Kings are allowing over 55 points per game in the paint, which should help Embiid get some easy baskets tonight.

The Sixers star is taking 18.3 shots per game this month and is looking more and more like his All-NBA self. I don't mind betting on him to put up another 30-point game against one of the worst defenses in the league.

Dillon Brooks UNDER 21.5 Points (-119)

This season, Dillon Brooks is averaging 20.5 points per game while shooting 44.0 percent from the field and 34.6 percent from beyond the arc. The veteran forward has taken a ton of shots since Devin Booker (ankle) went down, scoring 26 points in each of his last two games.

Despite that, I'm fading him against a Detroit Pistons team that ranks No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating and No. 2 in opponent points per game.

Brooks is not a super efficient scorer, and he struggled mightily against Detroit earlier this season, scoring 16 points on 4-of-16 shooting from the field. While there is some concern when it comes to this prop because of the volume Brooks has in this offense, he's also going to face a lot of defensive attention from Detroit.

After Brooks had big scoring games against Miami (an uptempo team) and Brooklyn (bottom five in defensive rating), I think this is a perfect spot to sell high, even with Booker out.

Peyton Watson OVER 18.5 Points (-126)

A former first-round pick, Denver Nuggets forward Peyton Watson has taken on an expanded role with Nikola Jokic out of the lineup over the last month. In 14 games without the star center (Watson missed one game during this 15-game stretch), Watson is averaging 22.4 points on 16.3 shots per game, knocking down 48.7 percent of his attempts from the field and 43.4 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Watson is making a serious case to get paid this offseason in a contract year, and while he failed to clear this line in his last game, he still took 20 shots for Denver. That usage is key, especially with Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun and Cameron Johnson all also out on Thursday night.

Brooklyn ranks 26th in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and Watson had 23 points on 14 shots in his last meeting with the Nets. Since Jokic went down, he has 19 or more points in 10 of his 14 games.

Anthony Edwards OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-154)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Edwards is worth a look in the prop market against OKC:

Anthony Edwards didn't have his best game on Wednesday against Dallas, shooting just 6-for-17 from the field. He finished with just 20 points, but the star guard knocked down three of his four shots from beyond the arc.

On Thursday, his 3-point prop is set at just 2.5 (he’s averaging over three per game) against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

OKC ranks just 26th in the league in opponent 3s made per game and opponent 3-point percentage, making this a great matchup for a player like Edwards who takes a ton of shots from beyond the arc.

Edwards is averaging 8.4 3-point attempts per game this season, and he’s been efficient in those looks, shooting 41.4 percent. He has cleared this line twice against OKC this season, shooting 5-for-10 and 3-for-6 from deep in those matchups.

He’s extremely undervalued at this number on Thursday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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