Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for LeBron James, Jalen Duren and James Harden)

One team has already clinched a spot in the Conference Finals, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to become the second on Monday, May 11 in Game 4 against the Los Angeles Lakers.

So, there’s a chance this is the last time this postseason where there are two games on the same night. It’s only right we bet on some player props then, right?

I’m eyeing three players in the prop market, including Los Angeles Lakers superstar LeBron James, who may be playing his final game as a Laker since he’s a free agent this coming offseason.

In addition to James, there are two players in the Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons matchup that I’m looking to fade in Game 4.

Let’s take a look at the odds and the analysis behind each of these player prop picks on Monday night.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, May 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

James Harden UNDER 19.5 Points (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Harden is a fade candidate in Game 4:

Harden has played in 10 postseason games with the Cavs, and the results have been as wild as you’d expect.

He’s posted four games with 20 or more points (just two since Game 2 against the Toronto Raptors), and he’s also turned the ball over 50 times, averaging 5.0 per game. Harden scored 19 points in Game 3, shooting 8-for-14 from the field and 3-for-7 from deep.

While that seems like a step in the right direction, I’m fading Harden in Game 4 on Monday.

The Cavs star shot just 9-for-28 in the first two games in this series, and he only cleared this line in Game 1 because he got to the free-throw line nine times. In fact, two of the four games where Harden has scored 20 this postseason came with him taking nine or more shots from the charity stripe.

The Pistons have the No. 2 defensive rating in the playoffs this season (they were also No. 2 in defense in the regular season), and I expect them to keep Harden in check on Monday night.

LeBron James UNDER 37.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-124)

LeBron has put together an impressive playoff run at 41 years old, averaging 23.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game while shooting over 46 percent from the field.

However, in this series, the Thunder have held him under 37.5 points, rebounds and assists in three straight games. So, I’m taking the UNDER in Game 4.

If the Lakers fall behind big again in the second half, I can’t imagine J.J. Redick risking the health of James or Austin Reaves in a series where Los Angeles is already drawing dead. On top of that, LeBron has combined for 37, 31 and 33 points, rebounds and assists in his three games in this series despite playing over 36 minutes in each matchup.

There’s always a chance James turns back the clock and puts together a vintage performance to keep L.A.’s season alive, but after back-to-back games shooting 50 percent or better, he was just 7-for-19 from the field in Game 3.

I think this number is a touch too high with OKC looking to close things out on Monday night.

Jalen Duren UNDER 23.5 Points and Rebounds (-109)

Pistons big man Jalen Duren has struggled in the playoffs, averaging 10.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, a complete shift from where he was during the regular season.

After putting up 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game in the regular season, Duren was a clear All-NBA candidate for the No. 1 seed in the East. Now, he has just one game all postseason with more than 23.5 points and rebounds (Game 7 against Orlando in the first round).

In this series, Duren has combined for 23, 18 and 15 points and rebounds, pulling down just four boards in the Pistons’ Game 3 loss. His offense has been nonexistent, as he’s taking just 7.9 shots per game and shooting under 50 percent from the field.

I’ll gladly fade Duren at this number on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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