Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Nikola Jokic, Reed Sheppard, Trey Murphy III)

A major nine-game NBA slate is set for Thursday, March 5, and there are a ton of ways to bet on the action in the player prop market.

Three-time league MVP Nikola Jokic is one of my favorite prop targets on Thursday, as he’s taking on a Los Angeles Lakers team that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NBA in defensive rating this season.

Plus, there are a pair of young role players that could see expanded roles on Thursday, especially San Antonio Spurs wing Devin Vassell, who has been on fire shooting the ball since the All-Star break.

Let’s dive into the latest betting odds, my analysis and the players to consider in the prop market for Thursday night’s action.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Reed Sheppard OVER 13.5 Points (-119)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Reed Sheppard is a great prop target against the Golden State Warriors:

Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard has recently entered the team’s starting lineup – he’s started three of the last four games – and it’s opened things up for the Rockets spacing-wise.

Sheppard is arguably the best shooter on the Houston roster after Kevin Durant, and the second-year guard has come on strong as of late, scoring 15 or more points in seven of his last 10 games.

During that 10-game stretch, Sheppard is averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting 48.0 percent from the field and 45.8 percent from 3-point range. He’s taking 12.5 shots per game during that stretch with over eight of them coming from beyond the arc.

Now, Sheppard takes on a Golden State team that is allowing 26.46 points per game to opposing point guards – the fourth-most in the NBA. In his first meeting with the Warriors, Sheppard shot 12-of-25 from the field and finished with 31 points.

If Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson or Jabari Smith Jr. (all questionable) sit in this game, Sheppard could see an even bigger role than usual on offense, making him an intriguing prop target in this matchup.

Devin Vassell OVER 14.5 Points (-105)

There are few players hotter than Devin Vassell right now, and he’s looking to build off a 28-point showing against the Detroit Pistons late last month.

The Spurs wing is averaging 20.6 points per game over his last five games, shooting 60.7 percent from the field and 62.5 percent from 3. It’s going to be hard to keep those numbers up against one of the best defenses in the league, but Vassell was 10-of-14 from the field in his last meeting with the Pistons.

San Antonio has made an effort to get the former first-round pick involved, especially from beyond the arc. He’s taken six or more 3s in each of his last five games. Overall, Vassell is averaging 14.6 points per game, and I think he’s worth a look to clear this number on Thursday night.

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (-124)

This season, Jokic has recorded a triple-double in nearly half of his games (22 of 46), and I love his matchup against Deandre Ayton and the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday.

The Lakers are 22nd in the league in defensive rating and are just 21st in opponent assists per game. That’s key since Jokic is almost a lock to grab 10 boards and score 10 points this season.

In 46 games, Jokic has 10 or more points in every game and 10 or more rebounds in 34 games. Recently, he’s fallen short of 10 or more assists in five of seven games, making that a key focus when it comes to this prop.

The three-time league MVP missed the first matchup against the Lakers this season, but he’s averaging 27.4 points, 13.7 rebounds and 8.8 assists in his last 10 games (including playoffs) against L.A.).

I think he’s worth a look at this price since his assists and rebounds props are set at 10.5 and 13.5 respectively on Thursday.

Trey Murphy III OVER 3.5 3-Pointers (+102)

This season, New Orleans Pelicans star Trey Murphy III is shooting 37.9 percent from 3-point range on 8.6 attempts per game, averaging over three made 3-pointers per game. He’s listed as questionable for Thursday’s game against the Sacramento Kings, but I think he’s worth a look in this prop market.

The Kings have struggled to defend the 3-ball in the 2025-26 season, ranking 17th in opponent 3s made per game and 25th in opponent 3-point percentage. That makes this a solid matchup for Murphy, who shot 5-for-11 from 3-point range in a matchup with the Kings in February.

Since Feb. 1 (seven games), Murphy has been lights out from beyond the arc, recording multiple games with four or more made 3-pointers while shooting 47.9 percent from deep on over 10 attempts per game.

The Kings are one of the worst defenses in the league (28th in defensive rating), so I wouldn’t be shocked if Murphy has a big game on Thursday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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