Best NBA Prop Bets Today (Predictions for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De’Aaron Fox, Spurs Star)

It doesn’t get much better than the series we have in the Western Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs.

The No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are on a quest to repeat as champions, but they’ll run into one team that has given them trouble all season long – the No. 2-seeded San Antonio Spurs – with a trip to the Finals on the line.

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs won four of the five meetings against MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder, yet oddsmakers have OKC favored to win this series and the Finals in 2026. So, how should we bet on Game 1?

There are a ton of ways to wager on this matchup, but the player prop market is extremely intriguing with so many star players going head-to-head. These teams played five times in the regular season, so there is quite a bit of data to look at when deciphering the players that are undervalued – or overvalued – in the latest odds.

Even with just one game on Monday night, I’m still targeting multiple player prop angles, including picks for SGA and Wemby.

Let’s take a look at the odds and analysis behind these props on May 18.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 6.5 Assists (-119)

During the regular season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had just one game against the Spurs (out of four) with over 6.5 assists, but the playoffs have been a different animal for the star guard.

He’s cleared 6.5 dimes in six of his eight games, picking up at least six dimes in seven of those matchups. Teams have doubled SGA and forced the ball out of his hands, and he’s been a willing passer averaging 13.6 potential assists per game in the playoffs.

This is the third playoff run in a row where SGA has averaged more assists per game than he did in the regular season, so I’ll ride that trend in Game 1, even against a stingy San Antonio defense.

De’Aaron Fox UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-142)

De’Aaron Fox has been up and down shooting the 3-ball all season long, as he posted multiple games against Oklahoma City during the regular seasons with three made 3-pointers and multiple with zero.

In the playoffs, Fox is shooting just 34.6 percent from beyond the arc, clearing this line in just five of 11 games. So, against the No. 1 defense in the NBA, I think he’s a potential fade candidate in Game 1.

The Thunder can throw a ton of elite guard defenders at Fox in this series, from Lu Dort to Alex Caruso to Cason Wallace. Fox hit just 33.2 percent of his 3s during the regular season, and the Spurs as a team shot just 35.8 percent from deep against Minnesota in the second round, down from 41.8 percent in the first round against Portland.

Fox isn't a volume 3-point shooter – he took less than five 3s in four of six games against Minnesota – so I don’t mind fading him on Monday night.

Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-173)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m buying Wemby on the glass in Game 1:

Wembanyama’s rebounding has been a major key for the Spurs this postseason, as he’s averaging 10.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs despite leaving Game 2 against Portland and Game 4 against Minnesota in the first half (one with an injury and one for an ejection).

The former No. 1 overall pick has six playoff games with 12 or more boards, and he’s seen his minutes jump in a big way from where they were in the regular season. That’s important to note in this prop because Wemby was on a minutes restriction in several games against OKC this season.

He had nine, five and 11 boards in his first three games against the Thunder, playing less than 26 minutes in each of those matchups. In the one game where he played over 28 minutes against OKC, Wembanyama came away with 14 boards.

As good as the Thunder have been, they do have some issues on the glass. They finished the regular season at No. 22 in the league in rebound percentage, and they are a pretty beatable team on the glass when Isaiah Hartenstein is off the floor.

Wembanyama is averaging over 16 rebound chances per game in the playoffs despite leaving two games early, so he has a solid floor when it comes to this prop.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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