Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Broncos vs. Commanders on Sunday Night Football in Week 13

Sunday Night Football in Week 13 of the 2025 season features Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, who are looking to build on a 9-2 start to the season.

Denver is coming out of its bye week, and it’s favored on the road against the Washington Commanders, who are also off their bye but sitting at just 3-8 this season.

Washington won’t have Jayden Daniels (elbow) in this matchup, as he’s missed time with multiple injuries this season.

The Commanders are long shots to make the playoffs in the NFC, and it’s not a surprise that they’re underdogs in this game. Not only will Washington’s offense be short-handed, but it has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

That should bode well for Nix and the Broncos, who are looking to capture an AFC West title this season and remain in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the conference.

When it comes to betting on this game, the SI Betting team is attacking it from all angles. I’ve brought together some of our favorite picks, from a side to player props and more for this primetime matchup.

Here’s a breakdown of our favorite bets for Broncos vs. Commanders.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Broncos vs. Commanders

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Washington Commanders +6.5 (-102) vs. Denver Broncos – Iain MacMillan
Troy Franklin Anytime TD (+150) – Peter Dewey
Pat Bryant Longest Reception OVER 13.5 Yards (-110) – Iain MacMillan
Marcus Mariota UNDER 190.5 Passing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Washington Commanders +6.5 (-102) vs. Denver Broncos – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to 272 column, and he’s buying the Commanders as home dogs – even with Jayden Daniels out:

The Broncos are a completely different team when on the road compared to at home. Their net yards per play drop from +1.2 at home to +0.5 on the road. Their offense keeps them from being able to run away and create separation from their opponents. They're 16th in the league in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. Only the Raiders, Titans, and Browns rank worse in success rate than the Broncos.

That causes me to hesitate to lay the 6.5 points on the Broncos when they hit the road to take on a Commanders team whose offense has still managed to move the ball, even when Jayden Daniels doesn't play. You might be surprised to find out they're 13th in EPA per play and sixth in success rate, behind only the Rams, Colts, 49ers, Chiefs, and Packers. Marcus Mariota is 13th in EPA+CPOE, which is just one spot below Jared Goff this season.

This game may end up being closer than people think.

Troy Franklin Anytime TD (+150) – Peter Dewey

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best anytime touchdown scorer picks why I’m taking Franklin to find the end zone on Sunday night:

Denver Broncos wide receiver Troy Franklin has really come on in recent weeks, catching four touchdowns over his last five games, and he has a great matchup in Week 13 against the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football.

Franklin has 46 receptions on 81 targets for 509 yards and five scores this season, showing a solid rapport with his college quarterback Bo Nix in his second NFL season.

The Commanders’ secondary has been toast in the 2025 season, allowing 22 passing touchdowns, 2,744 passing yards and ranking 31st in the NFL in EPA/Pass (only the Cincinnati Bengals have been worse).

That sets up well for a Denver team that throws the ball a lot even though Nix has been up and down in his second NFL season. I think Franklin is worth a shot in this matchup since he’s actually found the end zone more than Courtland Sutton as of late.

Franklin has at least eight targets in each of his last five games, giving him a pretty strong ceiling when it comes to this market on Sunday night.

Pat Bryant Longest Reception OVER 13.5 Yards (-110) – Iain MacMillan

Each week, MacMillan shares his favorite prop bets for the week in his Player Prop Countdown, and Broncos rookie Pat Bryant is his No. 2 play for Week 13:

The Commanders' secondary has struggled all season, especially when it comes to giving up chunk plays. They have allowed 38 plays of 20+ yards through the air and 10 plays of 40+ yards, the most in the league. That means the Broncos may be able to complete on some long passes, and I'm going to bet on Pat Bryant being on the receiving end of at least one of them. He has been used as a deep threat in their two most recent games, hauling in a reception of 43 yards against the Raiders in Week 10 and a reception of 48 yards against the Chiefs in Week 11. If he continues to be used in that role, he's going to pop off a big one on Sunday night.

Marcus Mariota UNDER 190.5 Passing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

This is a tough matchup for Mariota against a Denver defense that is one of the best in the NFL this season:

Marcus Mariota hasn’t thrown for more than 213 yards in a single game this season, and now he has to face the No. 3 team in the NFL in EPA/Pass this season.

The Broncos are No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and I think they’re going to make things tough on Mariota through the air. Denver has the best pass rush in the league, and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II is set to make his return from an injury in Week 13 after practicing in full this week.

I can’t trust Mariota to clear this number, even though he’s done so in the majority of his starts.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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