Best NFL Picks and Predictions (How to Bet Patriots vs. Broncos in AFC Championship Game)

It’s No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the AFC Championship Game this season, but oddsmakers aren’t expecting a close game in Denver on Sunday.

A bittersweet divisional round win for the No. 1-seeded Denver Broncos saw starting quarterback Bo Nix – who may have played the best at quarterback of anyone in action last weekend – go down for the rest of the season with a broken ankle.

So, Denver is now a 5.5-point home underdog against the No. 2 New England Patriots in Sunday’s game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

Jarrett Stidham, a former Patriots draft pick, will get the start for Denver, and he enters this game with just one career win.

Meanwhile, MVP candidate Drake Maye threw three touchdowns in a sloppy win over the Houston Texans in the divisional round, the second straight game that New England covered and won by double digits.

The Patriots are now 13-5-1 against the spread this season (including playoffs), and they’re looking to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since Tom Brady was their quarterback.

Still, the Pats have never won a playoff game in Denver, so Maye will look to make history on the road in this matchup.

All week long, the SI Betting team has been making picks for this game, and I’ve compiled some of our favorites all into one spot to help bettors may the most of this AFC Championship Game.

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Patriots vs. Broncos

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New England Patriots -5.5 (-105) vs. Denver Broncos – Iain MacMillan
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+115) – Peter Dewey
Jarrett Stidham to Throw an Interception (-176) – Peter Dewey
Kayshon Boutte UNDER 2.5 Receptions (+105) – Peter Dewey

New England Patriots -5.5 (-105) vs. Denver Broncos – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared his favorite bet for this game in his Road to Super Bowl 60 column, and he’s buying the Pats as road favorites:

There are plenty of smart people out there who think setting the Patriots as 5.5-point favorites is too big a reaction to the Bo Nix injury news. A lot of Nix's metrics didn't pop off the page, so is a 7-point swing justified with a capable Jarrett Stidham playing instead? I think it is, but it's not just because of the change at quarterback. There is something to be said about Nix's ability to be clutch and come up with plays in big moments, something Stidham doesn't have, but I'm backing New England more so because of what I've seen from the Patriots lately.

The New England defense may have figured something out. The argument against them heading into the postseason was that their defense was one of the worst in the NFL, but they completely shut down both the Chargers and Texans. Not only keeping them from scoring, but finding ways to force turnovers. In fact, they've allowed just 3.4 yards per carry in their past three games, the lowest in the NFL.

We already know the Patriots have a significant advantage offensively, and even more so with Nix out, but if the New England defense can continue its momentum, there's a chance the Patriots run away with this one.

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+115) – Peter Dewey

Even though he missed some of the divisional round win over the Houston Texans with an eye injury, Rhamondre Stevenson was dominant in that matchup, carrying the ball 16 times for 70 yards while catching all four of his targets for 11 yards.

In the playoffs, Stevenson has rushed for 123 yards on 26 carries (4.7 yards per carry) and has seven catches for 86 yards while playing 62.0 percent of the team's offensive snaps. The clear lead back for New England, Stevenson has yet to find the end zone in the playoffs after scoring nine times in 14 games during the regular season.

I love this matchup for Stevenson, as the Broncos struggled mightily against the run in the divisional round, allowing 117 yards on 24 carries to James Cook.

Stevenson isn't as talented as Cook, but he can score on the ground or through the air, and he's played more than rookie TreVeyon Henderson in the postseason.

The Broncos allowed just 3.9 yards per carry during the regular season, but they also ranked 14th in EPA/Rush. I think this team is gettable on the ground, and Stevenson may be undervalued at this price in a game that the Pats should win by a fairly wide margin.

Jarrett Stidham to Throw an Interception (-176) – Peter Dewey

The New England defense has been elite in the playoffs, holding the Los Angeles Chargers to just three points before picking off C.J. Stroud four times in the divisional round.

So, I’m very worried about Jarrett Stidham in his first career postseason start on Sunday.

Stidham has made four starts and appeared in 20 games in his NFL career, throwing eight touchdowns and eight picks. He’s going to be asked to do a lot for a Denver offense that had just 10 running back carries in the divisional round and relied heavily on Nix to knock off Buffalo.

The Patriots only picked off 10 passes in the regular season, but I think they’re going to have a lead in this game and will be able to force Stidham to air it out in the second half. The game script should set up well for the Broncos backup to throw at least one pick on Sunday.

Kayshon Boutte UNDER 2.5 Receptions (+105) – Peter Dewey

This is a bet on Denver cornerback Pat Surtain II, who won the Defensive Player of the Year award in the 2024 season.

Surtain has been a shutdown corner all season long, and he usually takes out his matchup, as quarterbacks avoid throwing his way. That has led to Riley Moss being one of the most targeted corners in the league, as he plays opposite of Surtain in the Denver defense.

Since Stefon Diggs plays a lot in the slot for New England, I wouldn’t be shocked if Surtain is tasked with slowing down Kayson Boutte, who found the end zone in the divisional round.

Boutte has seven catches on nine targets this postseason, but he could see a reduced workload if Surtain shadows him on Sunday.

This Denver secondary is one of the best in the NFL, and it’s worth noting that Boutte had two or fewer receptions in nine of his 14 games during the regular season.

Even though he’s come on strong in the first two rounds of the playoffs, Boutte is a fade candidate for me on Sunday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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