Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Divisional Round (Bet Broncos to Beat Bills in Denver)

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs is here. In less than 48 hours, we'll know the four teams competing in their respective conference championships with a berth in Super Bowl 60 on the line.

Today's games will feature an AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. Tonight, we'll get a marquee matchup between NFC West rivals when the Seattle Seahawks host the San Francisco 49ers.

Let's dive into my best bets for today's action.

NFL Best Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Broncos -1.5 (-105) vs. Bills
Bills/Broncos OVER 46.5 (-102)
49ers +7 (-110) vs. Seahawks
49ers vs. Seahawks UNDER 44.5 (-104)

Broncos -1.5 (-105) vs. Bills

If you're betting on the Bills, you're betting on Josh Allen to take over the game. He has done it in the majority of their games this season, including in their first playoff game against the Jaguars, but can he do it on the road against an elite Broncos defense?

The Broncos rank fifth in defensive DVOA, eighth in opponent EPA, and first in opponent success rate. They can stop both the run and the pass, ranking first in opponent dropback success rate and second in opponent rush success rate. Not only that, but they've been dominant on the road, sporting a Net Yards per Play of +1.2 at home, compared to the Bills, who are at +0.2 on the road.

Teams have been able to run the ball all over the Bills. They're 31st in opponent rush EPA, and they give up 5.2 yards per carry, which is also the second most in the league. If Denver leans on its run game, this could be a long game for the Bills.

Bills/Broncos OVER 46.5 (-102)

I'm not going to completely bet against Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I may be taking the Broncos to win, but I'll take the OVER when it comes to the total. Allen will find a way to at least put up some points against this Broncos defense. On the other side of the field, I envision the Denver offense running the ball up and down the field. The Bills' defense hasn't had much success against many offenses this season.

Any game involving the Bills from here on out will be an auto-over bet for me.

49ers +7 (-110) vs. Seahawks

I'm not denying the Seahawks are the better team, but a spread at over a touchdown seems a tad steep to me, even with George Kittle out for the 49ers.

I have some concerns for the Seahawks' offense that regressed in the second half of the season. They now rank 10th in offensive DVOA, 14th in EPA per play, and eighth in success rate. The 49ers rank second, sixth, and third in those three respective metrics. Sure, the Seahawks' defense is leagues above the 49ers, but is defense alone enough to justify this spread?

Let's remember, the Seahawks are led by a coach in Mike Macdonald, who is making his playoff debut, and a quarterback in Sam Darnold, who has been known to fail to deliver in big games. The 49ers are led by Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan, both of whom have the experience of making it to a Super Bowl.

I think this game will be closer than the spread indicates.

49ers vs. Seahawks UNDER 44.5 (-104)

Both of the first two games between these two teams were low-scoring affairs, and I see no reason why we won't see a similar result in the third game. The first meeting resulted in just 30 points being scored, and the Week 18 rematch was even lower scoring, with just 16 points being scored.

The Seahawks' defense is arguably the best in the NFL, ranking first in DVOA, first in opponent EPA, second in opponent yards per play, and third in opponent success rate. I'd be surprised if this ends up being a high-scoring game.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!