Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 5 (Bet the OVER in Cardinals vs. Lions)

The Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs may have the week off, but us bettors don't get a BYE. We have 13 games across the NFL to watch and bet on today, giving us plenty of options and opportunities.

In this article, I'm going to break down a little something for everyone, including a wager on a favorite, an underdog, and a total. Let's dive into them.

Best NFL Bets Today for Week 5

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Patriots -3.5 (-110) vs. Raiders
Saints +120 vs. Vikings
Lions vs. Cardinals OVER 54.5 (-110)

Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction

There's no denying the Raiders have earned their record to begin their season; their metrics have been strong, and they're 3-1 on the year, but with that being said, I think we can sell high on them after they've covered the spread each week. Before the season began, the Patriots were 8.5-point favorites in this game on the lookahead line. Now, the line is down to 3.5. Are we putting enough stock into a four-game sample size to move the line five whole points? I'm not quite convinced of that.

The Patriots had some poor luck in the first few weeks, and despite the slow start, their defense has still played well, ranking eighth in opponent success rate. That's above the Raiders' defense in that metric, which comes in at 11th.

A major concern I have about the Raiders is that they continue to struggle to run the ball. They rank 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate. That means that, in order for them to move the ball offensively, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins' arm. While that has worked to a certain extent early in the season, do you trust him that much moving forward? I certainly don't.

I'll lay the points with New England.

Pick: Patriots -3.5 (-110)

Vikings vs. Saints Prediction

As bad as the Saints' defense looked on Monday Night Football, the Vikings simply can't continue to find ways to win football games. Their offense is truly horrific, ranking 28th in EPA per play and dead last in the NFL in success rate. Their defense has won them games, but that can only take a team so far. Now, they have to hit the road to take on a Saints team that can at least move the ball through the air offensively.

The wrong team is favored in this game.

Pick: Saints +120

Cardinals vs. Lions Prediction

I don't know if there's a total in a Lions game that's high enough for me to not bet the OVER at this point of the season. Their offense is sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate, but their defense is last in opponent EPA per play and 29th in opponent success rate.

The Cardinals are in a similar situation, but not quite as exaggerated. Their offense is in the top half of the NFL in most offensive metrics, but in the bottom half of most defensive metrics, which makes sense when you consider the makeup of their roster.

Let's sit back and root for points in this NFC showdown.

Pick: OVER 54.5 (-110)

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