Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Wild Card Weekend (How to Bet Chargers vs. Patriots)

Iain MacMillan | 7 Hours Ago

The Patriots are home favorites against the Chargers in the first round of the NFL Playoffs. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

Four of the eight Divisional Round teams have already been decided between the two teams on BYE, and the two winners from yesterday's duo of games. It's time to find out the next three teams that will keep their Super Bowl dreams alive for at least another week.

Let's dive into my best bets for today's trio of NFL Wild Card action.

NFL Best Bets Today for Wild Card Round

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• Jaguars +1 (-118) vs. Bills
• Eagles -5 (-115) vs. 49ers
• Chargers +3.5 (-110) vs. Patriots

Bills vs. Jaguars Prediction

I think you're going to be hard-pressed to see many people betting against Josh Allen in the playoffs this weekend, but I'm going to be one of the few people brave enough to do it. This isn't anything against Allen and the Bills' offense, but their defense leaves a ton to be desired, and I have a lot of concerns about their ability to stop any playoff-level offense.

The Bills simply can't stop the run. They rank 25th in opponent rush success rate, 31st in opponent rush EPA, and 30th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 5.1 yards per rush. Now, they have to take on the hottest team in football.

The Jaguars outrank the Bills in DVOA, coming in at sixth compared to the Bills at eighth, and they've not only been solid on both sides of the football, but they also have a top-five-ranked special teams unit, which could make all the difference in a game that's set as a coin flip.

I'll take the Jaguars to take out the Bills and serve them yet another heartbreaking playoff loss.

Pick: Jaguars +1 (-118)

49ers vs. Eagles Prediction

The 49ers' defense might just be the worst unit on either side of the ball in the NFL Playoffs, which gives me a lot of concern about their ability to beat any postseason teams, especially a team that's as complete as the Eagles. The 49ers' defense ranks 27th in defensive DVOA, 24th in opponent EPA per play, 30th in opponent success rate, and 24th in opponent yards per play, giving up 5.6 yards per snap.

The Eagles had a dip in the middle of the season, but they have seemingly fixed a ton of their issues. Their defense in particular has become an elite unit, ranking third in opponent success rate and fourth in opponent EPA since Week 10.

The Eagles are peaking at the right time, and I think they're going to win and cover to keep their back-to-back dreams alive.

Pick: Eagles -5 (-115)

Chargers vs. Patriots Prediction

The Patriots' weak schedule has been a point of contention all season long, and for good reason. Yes, their record has been fantastic, and Drake Maye is a potential MVP, but the fact that they played just three games against teams that ended with winning records and went 1-2 in those games is a troubling sign moving into the postseason.

There's something to be said for the difference between these two defenses. The Patriots have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 18th in opponent success rate. The Chargers rank 10th, fifth, and seventh in those three metrics.

The biggest weakness for the Chargers is their injured offensive line, but the Patriots have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 19.0% of their opponents' dropbacks, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL. If they can't pressure Herbert, the Chargers may just pull off this upset.

Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-110)

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!