Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Bills vs. Broncos on Saturday in Divisional Round)

The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos are set to face each other in an NFL Playoff rematch from a year ago. Last year, the two teams met in the Wild Card Round, and the Bills got the better of Denver, winning by a final score of 31-7.

This time around, the game will take place on the Broncos' home field. Will that make enough of a difference?

Let's take a look at my best bet for the side and total in this game.

Bills vs. Broncos Best NFL Bets Today

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Broncos -108 vs. Bills
Bills/Broncos OVER 46.5 (-108)

Broncos -108 vs. Bills

In this week's edition of the Road to Super Bowl 60, I wrote about why I'm backing the Broncos in this spot:

If you're betting on the Bills, you're betting on Josh Allen to take over the game. He has done it in the majority of their games this season, including in their first playoff game against the Jaguars, but can he do it on the road against an elite Broncos defense?

The Broncos rank fifth in defensive DVOA, eighth in opponent EPA, and first in opponent success rate. They can stop both the run and the pass, ranking first in opponent dropback success rate and second in opponent rush success rate. Not only that, but they've been dominant on the road, sporting a Net Yards per Play of +1.2 at home, compared to the Bills, who are at +0.2 on the road.

Teams have been able to run the ball all over the Bills. They're 31st in opponent rush EPA, and they give up 5.2 yards per carry, which is also the second most in the league. If Denver leans on its run game, this could be a long game for the Bills.

Bills/Broncos OVER 46.5 (-108)

I'm not going to completely bet against Josh Allen and the Bills' offense. I may be taking the Broncos to win, but I'll take the OVER when it comes to the total. Allen will find a way to at least put up some points against this Broncos defense. On the other side of the field, I envision the Denver offense running the ball up and down the field. The Bills' defense hasn't had much success against many offenses this season.

Any game involving the Bills from here on out will be an auto-over bet for me.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!